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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 Mar, 2007 01:56 pm
Foxfyre wrote:

Okay, for us thermodynamically challenged, could you put that into layman's terms as to what happens to the heat that is released when water freezes or becomes colder?


It is probably more accurate and intuitively satisfying to say that melting ice requires that heat be transferred to it from its surroundings. Heat flows only in the presence of a difference in the temperatures of source and sink. Heat can be transferred by (1) Conduction from objects in direct contact (this is basically the transfer of energy from molecule to molecule in collisions); (2) Convection from a flowing stream of liquid or gas in direct contact (the flow in effect transports heat to the boundary); Radiation, which involves the flow of photons from the hotter object to a cooler one (it is the heat you feel when you put your hand a few inches above a lighted stove, or near an incandescent light bulb -- broiled foods are cooked by radiation as are those in a microwave oven.)

So the melting of the Antarctic ice requires that it be in direct contact with air or water at a temperature above the local freezing point. Heat flows from the warmer air or water to the ice during the melting. As a result the air or water cools. Generally there are convective flows of the air and water around the ice which effectively replenish the thermal energy in the air/water in contact with the ice. If an equilibrium is reached the ice stops melting.

In dry, clear air with intense sunlight ice can sublimate directly from a crystalline state to vapor due to intense radiation heat transfer. You likely see this in the Rocky Mountain area quite frequently.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 Mar, 2007 02:04 pm
That reminds me of some fun in physic classes at school when dealing with it ...

Our teacher didn't like us 14 year old boys making experiments with ice in 14 year old girl's ... o tempora, o mores Laughing
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 Mar, 2007 02:10 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
Foxfyre wrote:

Okay, for us thermodynamically challenged, could you put that into layman's terms as to what happens to the heat that is released when water freezes or becomes colder?


It is probably more accurate and intuitively satisfying to say that melting ice requires that heat be transferred to it from its surroundings. Heat flows only in the presence of a difference in the temperatures of source and sink. Heat can be transferred by (1) Conduction from objects in direct contact (this is basically the transfer of energy from molecule to molecule in collisions); (2) Convection from a flowing stream of liquid or gas in direct contact (the flow in effect transports heat to the boundary); Radiation, which involves the flow of photons from the hotter object to a cooler one (it is the heat you feel when you put your hand a few inches above a lighted stove, or near an incandescent light bulb -- broiled foods are cooked by radiation as are those in a microwave oven.)

So the melting of the Antarctic ice requires that it be in direct contact with air or water at a temperature above the local freezing point. Heat flows from the warmer air or water to the ice during the melting. As a result the air or water cools. Generally there are convective flows of the air and water around the ice which effectively replenish the thermal energy in the air/water in contact with the ice. If an equilibrium is reached the ice stops melting.

In dry, clear air with intense sunlight ice can sublimate directly from a crystalline state to vapor due to intense radiation heat transfer. You likely see this in the Rocky Mountain area quite frequently.


Okay, I almost understood that. (You have a way to go to explain it to the really challenged on this stuff though. Smile)

But okay. I recently asked a question related to a NASA graphic showing that the large land mass of Anarctica was getting colder and the ice thickening--while the perimeter of Anarctica was shown as getting somewhat warmer.

Now when I was growing up amongst fruit and vegetable farmers, they sometimes used large tubs of water or ran water into the irrigation ditches just before a predicted freeze. The theory was that the water would emit just enough heat as it chilled and froze to keep the tender blossoms from being destroyed.

Now my question was that if the vast interior of Anarctica is cooling, doesn't the heat that was there have to go somewhere? And would the logical place for it to go be around the perimeter which could explain temporarily slightly higher temperatures? And if this is so, then could this be an alternate explanation and the whole phenomenon does not necessarily have to be caused by global warming?

So far nobody has wanted to answer the question, though I have received a good deal of grief for asking it. Smile

(And yes, on some days the mountains and rocks absolutely glow about sundown as they give up the heat they absorbed during the day. It's one of my favorite things. And the ground fog phenomenon can be stunning as well.)
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 Mar, 2007 02:41 pm
Foxfyre wrote:


But okay. I recently asked a question related to a NASA graphic showing that the large land mass of Anarctica was getting colder and the ice thickening--while the surrounding perimeter of Anarctica was shown as getting somewhat warmer.
Your problem here is that you are implicitly assuming there is no convective flow of air or water that physically transports the heat - or, alternatively, isolates some regions. In addition, and most importantly, you are ignoring the effect of radiation heat transfer, which at the poles generally involves enormous transfer of heat from the earth to space during winter nights. It is entirely possible for the southern oceans to be slowly warming (or melting) the perimeter of the Antarctic ice, but still fail to add enough heat by conduction & convection to the Antarctic core to make up for the losses due to direct radiation to space. There is a strong and enduring 'Antarctic cyclone' flow of air around the southern pole in the winter months. This effectively insulates the polar region from convective heat transport from lower latitudes.

Foxfyre wrote:
Now when I was growing up amongst fruit and vegetable farmers, they sometimes used large tubs of water or ran water into the irrigation ditches just before a predicted freeze. The theory was that the water would emit just enough heat as it chilled and froze to keep the tender blossoms from being destroyed.
Remember that the farmer was just trying to sustain his crops through a few hours of freezing temperatures at night. Water is much denser than air and retrains a good deal of heat. It can slow the nocturnal cooling of the crops as long as the wind velocity is not too high. High winds in effect replenish the heat absorbing capacity of the cool night air.

Foxfyre wrote:
Now my question was that if the vast interior of Anarctica is cooling, doesn't the heat that was there have to go somewhere? And would the logical place for it to go be around the perimeter which could explain temporarily slightly higher temperatures? And if this is so, then could this be an alternate explanation and the whole phenomenon does not necessarily have to be caused by global warming?


The principal heat loss at the polar core is by radiation to outer space. The southern oceans and the atmosphere are continuously adding heat to the Antarctic ice pack, and the ice pack is continuously giving up heat to outer space by radiation. Radiation heat transfer is proportional to the difference in the fourth powers of the absolute temperatures of the source and the sink. On the absolute temperature scale, the Antarctic ice is at a temperature of about 260 degrees Kelvin and the night sky is at an equivalent temperature of about 200 degrees Kelvin. The difference in the fourth powers of these numbers is very large.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 Mar, 2007 02:57 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
Foxfyre wrote:


But okay. I recently asked a question related to a NASA graphic showing that the large land mass of Anarctica was getting colder and the ice thickening--while the surrounding perimeter of Anarctica was shown as getting somewhat warmer.
Your problem here is that you are implicitly assuming there is no convective flow of air or water that physically transports the heat - or, alternatively, isolates some regions. In addition, you are ignoring the effect of radiation heat transfer, which at the poles generally involves enormous transfer of heat from the earth to space during winter nights. It is entirely possible for the southern oceans to be slowly warming (or melting) the perimeter of the Antarctic ice, but still fail to add enough heat by conduction & convection to the Antarctic core to make up for the losses due to direct radiation to space. There is a strong and enduring 'Antarctic cyclone' flow of air around the southern pole in the winter months. This effectively insulates the polar region from convective heat transport from lower latitudes.


You cannot assume nor ignore something that you don't know exists. I do understand what you're saying here and it at least in part answers my question. I wonder why there is more loss due to radiation into space than there is heating in the same area when the same phenomenon does not seem to be happening around the entire perimeter? (Not necessary to answer that. It's just a curiosity factor that popped into my mind.)

Quote:
Foxfyre wrote:
Now when I was growing up amongst fruit and vegetable farmers, they sometimes used large tubs of water or ran water into the irrigation ditches just before a predicted freeze. The theory was that the water would emit just enough heat as it chilled and froze to keep the tender blossoms from being destroyed.
Remember that the farmer was just trying to sustain his crops through a few hours of freezing temperatures at night. Water is much denser than air and retrains a good deal of heat. It can slow the nocturnal cooling of the crops as long as the wind velocity is not too high. High winds in effect replenish the heat absorbing capacity of the cool night air.


Yes I do know this and I know it only works when the surrounding air is relatively still. But the principle could not also work on a hugely larger scale; i.e. the enormous land mass of anarctica? The length of time comparatively of the warmer perimeter might be proportionally as temporary as a farmer trying to help his peach blossoms survive a frost?

Foxfyre wrote:
Now my question was that if the vast interior of Anarctica is cooling, doesn't the heat that was there have to go somewhere? And would the logical place for it to go be around the perimeter which could explain temporarily slightly higher temperatures? And if this is so, then could this be an alternate explanation and the whole phenomenon does not necessarily have to be caused by global warming?


Quote:
The principal heat loss at the polar core is by radiation to outer space. The southern oceans and the atmosphere are continuously adding heat to the Antarctic ice pack, and the ice pack is continuously giving up heat to outer space by radiation. Radiation heat transfer is proportional to the difference in the fourth powers of the absolute temperatures of the source and the sink. On the absolute temperature scale, the Antarctic ice is at a temperature of about 260 degrees Kelvin and the night sky is at an equivalent temperature of about 200 degrees Kelvin. The difference in the fourth powers of these numbers is very large.


I'm guessing that the vast amount of heat radiating from that farmer's water tub isn't going into the tree either, but rather a very small portion of it affects the tree. And yet the tree benefits.

I'm not intending to be argumentative at all here and if you tell me there is no way water freezing in the interior of Anarctica could affect the temperature around the perimeter, I'll accept that. And then we'll both know. Because right now, I don't know.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 Mar, 2007 03:27 pm
Think of a continuous process in which heat flows from the oceanic margins of the ice cap into the interior ice, while, at the same time heat flows outward from the ice to outer space. Moreover, the closer you get to the pole, the more rapidly the heat radiates to outer space. Any marginal increase in the temperature of the ice at the perimeter (and within) due to oceanic warming is matched by an increased rate of radiation that results from the higher ice temperature. The net result depends on the balance (or lack of it) between the opposing processes.

The net process is continuously varying due to the relative intensity of the two primary factors (and others as well). There are the diurnal cycles of day and night; the seasonal cycles in variable ocean currents and varying lengths of the Antarctic night; and several other longer term cycles, some not well understood. For example; there are ten to twenty year cyclic variations in oceanic currents; the earth's axis nutates (or wobbles) relative to the plane of its orbit, slowly over time, altering the declination of the sun; the earth's magnetic poles move. the strength of the magnetic field varies, and sometimes even reverses, altering the distribution of some of the solar radiation striking the earth. There are several others.

These indeed are the factors that make the problem so complex & chaotic. They are also the very factors that make the numerical models used so assiduously by zealots to forecast GW catastrophy -- utterly meaningless as predictions.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 Mar, 2007 03:33 pm
Thank you George. You probably have a hopeless student here if I have to pass an exam now Smile, but I understand more than I did. Nobody has still answered my question with a yes or no, but maybe it is unreasonable to put it into that simple a format. I do appreciate your input.
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blueflame1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 Mar, 2007 07:56 pm
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Brand X
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 Mar, 2007 08:36 pm
Is this the same administration that brings us accurate intelligence reports? Rolling Eyes
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 Mar, 2007 09:27 pm
Brand X wrote: Is this the same administration that brings us accurate intelligence reports?

Yes, the same one who also said while standing in Jackson Square in New Orleans that we were going to see the biggest reconstruction project in the US. That just happens to be about 18 months ago.

Lied about the insolvency of social security.

Lied about "nation building."

Guilty of numerous cronyism appointments (Homeland Security, FEMA

Rewarded failures of Condi Rice and other cronies with key promotions.

Energy policies lead to record gas and oil prices.

Responsible for the largest debt in U.S. history.

Fostered a culture of corruption among GOP and top leadership (Tom Delay, etc).

Allowed Donald Rumsfeld to keep job despite utter failure in Iraq.

Presided over the U.S.'s lowest popularity throughout the world.

Saw No Child Left Behind fail (with underfunded mandates).
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 Mar, 2007 09:35 pm
blueflame1 wrote:
The United States already is responsible for roughly one-quarter of the world's carbon dioxide and other "greenhouse" gases that scientists blame for global warming.
....
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20070303/global-warming

That has to be nonsense, as less than 5% of carbon dioxide is even man made, let along considering all greenhouse gases, which the vast majority is water vapor. Surely we aren't making a fourth of all water vapor.

This is the kind of garbage in the media that we have to fight everyday, folks.
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parados
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 Mar, 2007 10:21 pm
It's your statement that is nonsense okie.

There is a difference between the normal earth's temperature caused by the green house gases that existed and the increase in temperature caused by the increase in green house gases.

Read the statement again. Now look at the science and your statement.
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parados
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 Mar, 2007 10:30 pm
Quote:
Yes I do know this and I know it only works when the surrounding air is relatively still. But the principle could not also work on a hugely larger scale; i.e. the enormous land mass of anarctica? The length of time comparatively of the warmer perimeter might be proportionally as temporary as a farmer trying to help his peach blossoms survive a frost?



Again, we are looking at the second law of thermodynamics. Warm water or land to fight cold air. The cold air absorbs the warmth of the land as the two attempt to equalize. The goal is to have one warm enough to keep the other from dropping too far. If the air is colder than the ONLY trend we can see is for the surface where the two meet to get colder. This happens in the peach fields. The goal is to keep that surface warm enough to keep it from freezing.

There can be NO warming trend in the peach field if the air is getting colder. It is a cooling trend at the surface. It is that law that the farmers are trying to use to keep the air warm enough.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 3 Mar, 2007 11:33 pm
Okie has a point. The statement in question was a bit ambiguous.

Quote:
The United States already is responsible for roughly one-quarter of the world's carbon dioxide and other "greenhouse" gases that scientists blame for global warming.


The U.S does not produce one quarter of the world's carbon dioxide. What is intended in this rather careless statement is that the industrial and other man made emissions in the US are estimated to constitute about one quarter of the world total of such emissions. -- I think that was okie's point.

This estimate does not account for many sources of CO2 including respiration by humans and animals, the decay of vegetable matter and wood, and other like processes. Moreover it does not accurately account for the temporary sequestration of CO2 in growing trees and plants. Cutting down the forests in Brazil not only reduces a permanent source of carbon sequestration, it also temporarily increases emissions through the burning and decay of the cut forest.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Mar, 2007 01:35 am
Thanks for your physics class on the last page, George!

Reminds me that our headteacher (and my physics and maths teacher for one year) always started his lessons with "Everything what surrounds us is physics."
(Perhaps I really should have kept some more of my books?)
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parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Mar, 2007 07:30 am
Read the ENTIRE sentence george.

Quote:
The United States already is responsible for roughly one-quarter of the world's carbon dioxide and other "greenhouse" gases that scientists blame for global warming.


The statement is NOT about all the CO2. It is about the CO2 that scientists blame. There is no other reading possible.

The natural sources of CO2 have a cycle that kept the levels fairly constant. It is the added man made CO2 that has caused increases in levels because the natural cycle can't keep up.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Mar, 2007 07:59 am
Hmmm. How is CO2 that is generated by my Subaru any different from CO2 that is generated by a rain forest? I admit to being no scientist, but I think a chemical compound of a particular composition would be the same regardless of its source?
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old europe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Mar, 2007 08:06 am
Foxfyre wrote:
Hmmm. How is CO2 that is generated by my Subaru any different from CO2 that is generated by a rain forest?


It's not different. Manmade CO2 is very much the same as natural CO2, just like the straw that breaks the camel's back is not different from the rest of the straw.

Why do you ask?
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Mar, 2007 08:10 am
I don't know any other reason than the use for statistics.

But I'm just now back to my old physics schoolbooks . chemistry may come later :wink:

List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions
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old europe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 4 Mar, 2007 08:16 am
I have to agree with georgeob1, though. The sentence in question could be easily read as 'The United States already is responsible for roughly one-quarter of the world's carbon dioxide and other "greenhouse" gases'...
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