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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Dec, 2006 01:46 pm
Laughing
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Dec, 2006 01:47 pm
okie wrote:
but out of curiosity, could you be the formerly known "BernardR" that happened in these parts a while back?


Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Dec, 2006 01:49 pm
okie, you're as wrong as wrong can be: High Seas is known by quite a few personally and lots of others since her ABUZZ days.

(Besides that, there are more and larger differences to BernhardR.)
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Dec, 2006 02:17 pm
Well, my sincere apologies, to everyone, and to High Seas. Glad to provide some humor anyway, I guess I am in the dark. High Seas appears here as a Newbie, so I am always on the lookout for my old friend and unflappable supporter on this thread, BernardR.

I will not speculate on the "more and larger differences" you mention, Walter.
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McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Dec, 2006 02:36 pm
I was hoping for the typical liberal third degree of this new poster, but apparently they only do that to those that oppose their views.

That's why I laughed...
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Dec, 2006 02:38 pm
McGentrix wrote:
I was hoping for the typical liberal third degree of this new poster, but apparently they only do that to those that oppose their views.


a) I've only very rarely been the same opinion as High Seas,
b) besides georgeob, she's the only conservative I highly regard.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Dec, 2006 03:22 pm
Well gee, McG and Okie. Shall we take turns at being president of the 'rest of the conservatives Walter doesn't hold in high regard' club? We're in pretty good company I'd say. Smile
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Dec, 2006 03:23 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:
McGentrix wrote:
I was hoping for the typical liberal third degree of this new poster, but apparently they only do that to those that oppose their views.


a) I've only very rarely been the same opinion as High Seas,
b) besides georgeob, she's the only conservative I highly regard.


Thank you for the kind words, Walter!

Okie - no need to apologize, I don't think I know anyone here except Walter so far on this thread; never heard of BernardR, but didn't go back to read 400 pages either. Nor do I see how the past average temperatures for the planet could be a function of political views!

Temperatures for the past billion+ years are shown on the graph I already posted and it's obvious we're at the coldest phase of the range, with renewed warming having only recently started again.

Next: planetary motions, in addition to those involving the entire solar system, are principally 3: orbital eccentricity (between 0.00 and 0.06 every 100,000 years), tilt in the axis of rotation (betw. 22 and 24.5 degrees every 41,000 years), and a wobble of the spin axis every 23,000 years.

How a poster could confuse any of those planetary motions with motions of the lithosphere isn't clear to me, but even looking only at events on the planet's surface we find the correlation of high temperatures with high sea levels to be almost perfect. We're at a historically low sea level period (with so much water locked up in polar ice) which is of course also a historically very cold period, as shown on the previous graph. QED Smile

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/cliscibeyond.html

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/images/figure06_08.jpg
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Dec, 2006 03:31 pm
High Seas wrote:

Temperatures for the past billion+ years are shown on the graph I already posted and it's obvious we're at the coldest phase of the range, with renewed warming having only recently started again.


Laughing really, you can detect a recent upward trend when the x axis is a billion + years? You must have exeedingly good eyesight.
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Dec, 2006 03:41 pm
LOL Steve! The data ranges for the graphs are available for download, as you perfectly well know, we don't go by the pretty pictures!
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Dec, 2006 03:48 pm
What that graph doesn't show is how high or low the seas have been during that time period; just relationship.
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Dec, 2006 03:56 pm
Cicerone - do you want a link to the actual datasets going into those graphs? They're really very large files, but can be downloaded.
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Dec, 2006 04:35 pm
P.S. to Cicerone: I checked - these are the ice-sheet periods of our planet starting at 4.2 billion years ago:

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/images/part2.gif

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/resourcebeyond.html

A complete disappearance of our polar icecaps will add approximately 80 meters to ocean levels given the current configuration of our lithosphere (i.e. allowing for inland bodies of water) but nobody knows if that's going to happen within 10^2 years or 10^5, or longer still. Hope that was clear.
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parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Dec, 2006 05:45 pm
I still want to know how you got the impression that "planetary motions" (whatever you mean by that) cause the temperature swings.

When I asked for a citation you referred me to the website that talks about the movement of tectonic plates. It tells how they figured the temperatures based on the location of the land mass and the fossils and rock formations that occurred during that time. That in no way leads me to conclude they are claiming that "planetary motions" caused those differences in temperature. Nor can I find any reference there where they claim that planetary motions caused the temperature changes.

You then went on to argue that my use of the term "planetary motion" was not your intention and I was misquoting you. But now you proceed to come back with my definition. I will ask again. Provide a citation that shows that planetary motions caused the differences in temperatures over several billion years. Please provide one that states there is no other possible explanation like you appeared to state.
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parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 27 Dec, 2006 06:23 pm
High Seas wrote:
Cicerone - do you want a link to the actual datasets going into those graphs? They're really very large files, but can be downloaded.

A link to datasets is always helpful.
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High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Dec, 2006 09:14 am
Link to NOAA's paleoceanic small datasets:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ftp-ocean.html

Link to USGS sea level small datasets:
http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/data/sea_level/Core/raw/peltier/

Link to Tim Berners-Lee's www index of all paleoclimatology and paleoceanology resources:
http://www.datasync.com/~farrar/www_vl_paleoclim.html

Finally (also accessible at above link) complete list of large datasets:


Quote:

Data Archives

* Delphi Project. Marine geology paleoclimate data.
* European Pollen Database.
* Greenland Summit Ice Cores (GRIP, GISP2) data online.
* Index to Marine Geological Samples Database.
* International Tree-Ring Data Bank. NOAA and World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology.
* Oak Ridge National Lab. Carbon Dioxide Information & Analysis Center. Data sets relating to climate and CO2. Also at ftp site, ftp://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/pub/
* Ocean Drilling Program JANUS Web. JOIDES Resolution data.
* Quaternary Reference Collections, Cambridge, UK.
* The Delphi Project. Marine sediment cores.
* World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology. Many datasets of all sorts.


For anyone interested further in the actual modelling - as opposed to the input of data series - this is a link to an excellent recent article:
http://www.acm.caltech.edu/~hou/papers/Wiener_Chaos_JCP.pdf


Quote:

As it was demonstrated in the previous sections, as long as the time interval is comparatively short, e.g.
T < 1.0, the performance of the WCE is quite satisfactory. However, long time integrations of the WCE
method present a substantial challenge. For long time integrations, one has to solve the equation step-by-step
on successive small time intervals.


I'm currently working on such a model now and my deadline is fast approaching, so will close by wishing a happy new year to all Smile
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hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Dec, 2006 10:03 am
...CLIMATE CHANGE - WHERE SOME INVESTORS ARE GOING TO PLACE THEIR BETS...
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Dec, 2006 02:35 pm


Evelyn Browning-Garriss lived a couple of miles from our home in Cedar Crest when we lived in the East Mountain area just on the other side of Sandia Crest that forms the eastern boundary of a big chunk of Albuquerque. I do not know Ms. Browning-Garriss personally but I do know she is of the opinion that the local climate is very much affected by human activity and all their paved roads, parkinglots, and construction. She leans toward the theory that human activity can affect global climate but is unwilling to speculate how much or how little.

If you want a good summary of her take on all this, go to her newsletter: HERE
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Dec, 2006 03:29 pm
For environmentalists, you should be concerned about the amount of lumber China is using in their economic growth.
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hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Thu 28 Dec, 2006 06:14 pm
foxfire :
thanks for the link to the newsletter !
hbg
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