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Iran's Next. One Down (Kinda) and Two To Go

 
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Jan, 2005 07:41 pm
I'm losing patience here Freeduck. Your repeated taunts, despite the obvious folly in your position is tempting me to remove the kid gloves I've been wearing because I like you. Does your second to last paragraph mean you understand your mistake or doesn't it?
0 Replies
 
Steppenwolf
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Jan, 2005 09:35 pm
I can't say I oppose the threat of force against Iran. Although I'm ever leery of Bush's delusions, the threat of nuclear weapons in Iran is real; it isn't another one of Bush's fantasies. The Ayatollahs would use nuclear weapons to entrench themselves indefinitely, and their ties to fundamentalists are more authentic than those conjured to justify Iraq (Baathists have always been secular, even if Saddam attempted to use Islam for his benefit).

Perhaps one consequence of Bush's ill-planned war in Iraq was that we Americans have become dull to actual threats, like Iran and North Korea. Somewhere in these nine pages I read the phrase "crying wolf." I don't suspect that I see eye-to-eye with the person who posted that; I think that the phrase applies to Bush more aptly than to his predecessors. Bush's fear mongering and phony justifications will make us all dim and sheepish when the real thing comes along. Crying wolf indeed…
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FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Jan, 2005 09:37 pm
I've already lost patience, O'Bill. Maybe you could do a re-read and see what I'm seeing, but I'm just not digging the combative and insulting tone. It's not my thing. My attempts at humor to lighten the tone have obviously failed so I will leave it at that. Good night to you.
0 Replies
 
JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Jan, 2005 10:07 pm
Steppenwolf wrote:
I can't say I oppose the threat of force against Iran. Although I'm ever leery of Bush's delusions, the threat of nuclear weapons in Iran is real; it isn't another one of Bush's fantasies. The Ayatollahs would use nuclear weapons to entrench themselves indefinitely, and their ties to fundamentalists are more authentic than those conjured to justify Iraq (Baathists have always been secular, even if Saddam attempted to use Islam for his benefit).

Perhaps one consequence of Bush's ill-planned war in Iraq was that we Americans have become dull to actual threats, like Iran and North Korea. Somewhere in these nine pages I read the phrase "crying wolf." I don't suspect that I see eye-to-eye with the person who posted that; I think that the phrase applies to Bush more aptly than to his predecessors. Bush's fear mongering and phony justifications will make us all dim and sheepish when the real thing comes along. Crying wolf indeed…


Bush is traveling to Europe next month and hopefully Dr. Rice will be along for the ride. I'm hoping (and betting) that when he leaves, there will be no doubt concerning our disregard for the niceties of international "standards" when it comes to Iran. Perhaps the whining about us not joining in their "negotiations" will be put to rest once and for all.
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Steppenwolf
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Jan, 2005 10:55 pm
JustWonders wrote:
Steppenwolf wrote:
I can't say I oppose the threat of force against Iran. Although I'm ever leery of Bush's delusions, the threat of nuclear weapons in Iran is real; it isn't another one of Bush's fantasies. The Ayatollahs would use nuclear weapons to entrench themselves indefinitely, and their ties to fundamentalists are more authentic than those conjured to justify Iraq (Baathists have always been secular, even if Saddam attempted to use Islam for his benefit).

Perhaps one consequence of Bush's ill-planned war in Iraq was that we Americans have become dull to actual threats, like Iran and North Korea. Somewhere in these nine pages I read the phrase "crying wolf." I don't suspect that I see eye-to-eye with the person who posted that; I think that the phrase applies to Bush more aptly than to his predecessors. Bush's fear mongering and phony justifications will make us all dim and sheepish when the real thing comes along. Crying wolf indeed…


Bush is traveling to Europe next month and hopefully Dr. Rice will be along for the ride. I'm hoping (and betting) that when he leaves, there will be no doubt concerning our disregard for the niceties of international "standards" when it comes to Iran. Perhaps the whining about us not joining in their "negotiations" will be put to rest once and for all.


I guess we'll see. At any rate, I refuse to make up hypothetical scenarios to either vilify or canonize Bush, so I remain agnostic about what he will or will not do in Europe (or elsewhere). Many of you here seem all too comfortable with fantasy -- a staple in modern politics, apparently. I've read quite a few "Bush must be doing this; isn't that great!" posts from your side, and more than enough "Bush obviously plans to do this; isn't that wicked!" posts from your opponents. It seems that some people agree with Bush's decisions before he's even made them, and some disagree on the same grounds. How strange.
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Jan, 2005 10:55 pm
Steppenwolf wrote:
Somewhere in these nine pages I read the phrase "crying wolf." I don't suspect that I see eye-to-eye with the person who posted that; I think that the phrase applies to Bush more aptly than to his predecessors. Bush's fear mongering and phony justifications will make us all dim and sheepish when the real thing comes along. Crying wolf indeed…
You agree more than you care to admit. Your Bush-bashing aside, you freely admit that rogue nations have received more bark than bite by this and previous Presidents. Bush, said he was going to attack if certain conditions were not met... and did. If he does so again, it should go a long way towards erasing the memory of our recent empty threats. This was my original point. I would agree with you if you're suggesting that he's been too gentle with more dangerous fiends... but I wonder if you'd really approve if he wasn't.
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Jan, 2005 10:58 pm
FreeDuck wrote:
I've already lost patience, O'Bill. Maybe you could do a re-read and see what I'm seeing, but I'm just not digging the combative and insulting tone. It's not my thing. My attempts at humor to lighten the tone have obviously failed so I will leave it at that. Good night to you.
I did a re-read and suggest you do the same. My tone has been as gentle as I can be on this subject with you, FreeDuck, and will likely not be so gentle on it again. If you don't dig the "combative and insulting tone"; I suggest in the future you drop the condescending and insulting attitude you rewarded me with for supplying the proof you requested. Note; you've used up your benefit of the doubt for the time being.

I don't have a problem with your humor. I have a problem with your choice to not concede facts that are clearly represented in the sources I wasted my time to provide for you. You eventually admitted that my point was valid at the end of a yet another long string slights when in fact you had proven not a single thing I wrote false, while ignoring the unequivocal proof I provided to back up my challenged statements along the way.

I suspect you spoke up because you didn't care for the tone I took with Dookie. Unfortunately for you, you chose an untenable position as a vehicle for your complaint. While I wasted my time providing you evidence of my factual statements, you wasted more of it with silly slights, no evidence and not a single coherent point-relevant fact. Again, If you don't dig the "combative and insulting tone"; I suggest in the future you drop the condescending and insulting tone you rewarded me with for wasting my time grabbing evidence for you to first ignore, then dismiss as a sidebar to some personal BS that you had initiated in the first place. Idea
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Steppenwolf
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Jan, 2005 11:23 pm
OCCOM BILL wrote:
You agree more than you care to admit. Your Bush-bashing aside, you freely admit that rogue nations have received more bark than bite by this and previous Presidents. Bush, said he was going to attack if certain conditions were not met... and did. If he does so again, it should go a long way towards erasing the memory of our recent empty threats. This was my original point. I would agree with you if you're suggesting that he's been too gentle with more dangerous fiends... but I wonder if you'd really approve if he wasn't.


Yes, I do think that some previous presidents have been too gentle. However, the danger, the threat, and the response should be proportionate. All out war (and regime change) is an expensive and silly way to say "I told you so," particularly given the possible consequences of a poorly planned reconstruction. We should save our threats of war for more pressing matters, and yes, such threats must bear the proper fruit. Despite all the administration's puffery, Saddam proved little more than a caged rat. Yes, he was a tyrant, but the risks inherent to a regime change -- the threat of a failed reconstruction and a subsequent power vacuum -- outweighed the benefits. Evidence of this was on Bush's plate before the war, even if he refused to taste it.

In response to your last comment -- your speculation about whether I want a less gentle president -- just because I support a firm hand doesn't mean that I think we should mindlessly flail that hand about. I won't say that Bush has either been too gentle or too harsh. That's not where I find fault in the man. I dislike him because he's careless, too flippant about the challenges of reconstructing a country, and too ideologically hidebound to make policy that's responsive to the real world.
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OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Jan, 2005 11:48 pm
All reasonable opinions, Steppenwolf. I agree with you more than you realize, too. I do think you are a bit overcritical of Bush in using the hindsight now at our disposal. May I remind you our intelligence on Iraq before the first Gulf war was just as inaccurate, but the other way (greater threat than we realized Idea). There is always going to be some educated guessing going on with plenty of error, and considering Saddam's track record... let's just say he was entitled to NO benefit of the doubt. On the other hand, I concur completely with your assessment of Bush's unstatesmanlike demeanor and find the man largely unimpressive as a whole. Since regime change in Iraq was WAY overdue, IMHO, we won't find any agreement there. I must say, Saddam was a hell of a lot more fiendish than your description affords. It just isn't right to slight the millions he starved to death, let alone those he outright murdered.
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Steppenwolf
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Jan, 2005 12:23 am
OCCOM BILL wrote:
All reasonable opinions, Steppenwolf. I agree with you more than you realize, too. I do think you are a bit overcritical of Bush in using the hindsight now at our disposal. May I remind you our intelligence on Iraq before the first Gulf war was just as inaccurate, but the other way (greater threat than we realized Idea). There is always going to be some educated guessing going on with plenty of error, and considering Saddam's track record... let's just say he was entitled to NO benefit of the doubt. On the other hand, I concur completely with your assessment of Bush's unstatesmanlike demeanor and find the man largely unimpressive as a whole. Since regime change in Iraq was WAY overdue, IMHO, we won't find any agreement there. I must say, Saddam was a hell of a lot more fiendish than your description affords. It just isn't right to slight the millions he starved to death, let alone those he outright murdered.



You're certainly right about the skewing force of hindsight, and I cannot criticize Bush for coming to the wrong conclusions, per se. However, I believe that his conclusions were the result of either his intolerance to dissent or his top-down management style. Too many dissenting agency heads (and lesser officials) have been ousted; too many memos went unread; too much effort was spent trying to fit the facts to the story (rather than the other way around); too many smart people were ignored. I know many of these smart people, both in State and at the CIA. But you needn't any connections to see a trend; ample evidence exists to show an unhealthy dislike of debate from our current administration ("with us or against us," anyone?). I cannot know for sure, but I suspect that more deliberation would have led to a more a cautious and measured approach, particularly with regards to reconstruction. These are sins that I do not easily forgive.
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OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Jan, 2005 01:06 am
Neither your disapproval of his management style nor your opinion that he ignored the wrong people is debatable. I do disagree. I manage the same way and dissenting opinions I dismiss don't care for it either. That, in and of itself, constitutes no wrongdoing. In any path to war there will be dissenting opinions ignored that later prove to have been prophetic. Our political differences make us weight the various inputs entirely differently. Since I thought regime change was WAY overdue anyway, I too would have favored damning opinions. I agree that it probably could have been handled much better, but I'm grateful that it's being handled at all.
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Bibliophile the BibleGuru
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Jan, 2005 06:27 am
So, when's the invasion date?
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JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Jan, 2005 10:12 am
Ask Hersh.

http://www.washtimes.com/op-ed/20050118-093611-9660r.htm
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Magus
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Jan, 2005 11:25 am
We went to War over allegations of WMDs and "Faulty Intelligence"..
anyone who, after the fact, still considers the whole farce defensible... deserves "points" for "Team Spirit", if not for intelligence.

That arrogant damned Pep Squad mentality really frosts me...
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panzade
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Jan, 2005 08:17 am
I'm betting that Hersh was leaked info on purpose;in order to prod the mullahs to circle the wagons thereby revealing much more intelligence product.
It is in keeping with the broad spectrum of the Bush Doctrine.
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squinney
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Jan, 2005 11:13 am
Thats Horse Dookie, Pan and others that have suggested it. The leak wasn't purposely from anyone in the administration. The Mullahs would have to be freakin idiots to not think we were spying, had a contingency plan, etc. since Bush put them on the dumbass Axis of Evil List 3 years ago. Not to mention our relationship with Iran for decades past. Who wouldn't expect that covert ops were going on?

Come on. The info was real, from a person orpeople inside that disagree with the administration because they see it all coming to fruition in the near future. The info was from real inside people that know we are getting ready to be sold another bill of goods.

Think, people. Whoever leaked the info, likely also knows we aren't in a position to do what is being planned.

Here's a nice example:

You can read the whole article at

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/17/international/europe/17spiegel.html?pagewanted=1&adxnnl=0&oref=login&adxnnlx=1106122061-vc0WY04OHrcq1ly%2BIA/INQ

From page 3:

"Proposals being considered to improve the security situation in Iraq also show signs of desperation. For the first time, regular soldiers are being offered training to fight insurgents. Until now, such special training was reserved for members of the elite forces and for marine infantry troops. Part of the training includes a marines' training manual written in 1940. Some is helpful, but parts are completely antiquated. For instance, there is a section labeled "working with animals," (mules, mostly) and another on "mixed-race" companies. According to the manual, such companies are unusually "unmanageable due to a lack of strong character."

More From page 3:

The Pentagon's civilian leadership has not been faced with so much criticism from within its own ranks since the Vietnam War. Retired general D. Barry McCaffrey is even concerned that "the army will lose its base in the next 24 months." General Peter Schoomaker, the current Chief of Staff of the US Army, has already warned Congress against drastic consequences, saying that "it may be necessary to augment the regular armed forces," something that Rumsfeld wants to avoid at all costs, mainly for budgetary reasons.

To maintain a security force of 150,000 troops in Iraq in the longer term, the United States will in fact need three times as many soldiers. According to military planners, a third of these troops would be preparing for deployment, a third would actually be deployed, and a third would be involved in post-deployment work or on vacation.

This approach would thus require 450,000 troops to be available for Iraq at all times. However, the entire US armed forces, which would provide the lion's share of this military force, currently comprises only 500,000 troops. It's mainly because of these anticipated personnel needs that US military commanders are opposed to Rumsfeld's pet project -- converting the US armed forces into a relatively small but highly mobile high-tech commando force designed for lightning missions throughout the world. Military commanders argue that although this concept may have ensured the US a rapid initial victory over Iraq, it cannot guarantee peace in Iraq.


Anyone thinking that an invasion of Iran at this time is anything but suicidal is dilusional, to say the least.
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Frank Apisa
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Jan, 2005 11:20 am
Shouldn't be any reason to have ANY of our troops over there anymore.

Condi Rice has assured the Senate that we already trained 120,000 Iraqi troops to do the job.

Hell...that's more than Rummy and Rice originally said would be needed.

So considering Condi's testimony...the only question I see is...when do we pull our troops out? This month? Next month?
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ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Jan, 2005 11:26 am
Didn't she say "eventually"?

Gotta go look that up.



Heard an interview on the radio last night with some military types who think the U.S. will need to be in Iraq for 20 - 60 years - if they expect democracy to stick.
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OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Jan, 2005 11:45 am
Squin, Pan didn't say we Psy-op'd the story... just a little leak is all that was needed for the snowball to form. JW suggested the same earlier and I still concur. The resulting press, Good, Bad or Ugly, still puts it on the tip of everyone's tongue that Iran isn't being completely back-burnered. Lack of denial had the exact same effect a bold statement would have... but didn't open us up to as many renegade-cowboy accusations because everyone knows spying is a fact of life. If it wasn't leaked, it should have been, because the message is solid. Idea My only concern would be for the men on the ground, if it was a surprise. I believe we'd be hearing a hell of a backlash already if they'd been compromised.

Invasion of Iran; suicidal? Rolling Eyes You badly underestimate the military might of the United States. We don't have a 1 dimensional military that has been exhausted in Iraq…
If ten Iran's decided to attack us tomorrow; all would meet their doom in short order... and everyone in the know on Planet Earth knows it. (That's why it doesn't happen. :wink:)
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squinney
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Jan, 2005 11:52 am
And it's okay for US to make that kinda threat, Bill, but certain countries determined by US aren't allowed to? Threaten to do to them what we fear they may do to us?

Again, given that we are the ones bustling tail feathers, perhaps we could stop prancin' around the barnyard, showing our butt and try behaving the way we want others to behave in this world. Otherwise, this is a vicious circle.
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