georgeob1 wrote:Joe, the paper you cited would not get a passing grade in an undergraduate course in statistics. Just the questio of sample sizes and the associated confidence intervals are enough to assign the discrepancy to the exit polls. That a self-professed academic passed this **** off as "science" is a sad testimony to his professional standards and your credulity.
You have got to be kidding me. Did you read the article? It is based on simple standard deviation, and it IS basic statistics. It is based on sample size and it is elementary stuff. To even question the validity of using statistics to examine the election results, then to call a well written paper as **** is completely dishonest and unAmerican.
Do you know something about statistics, if you do then please enlighten me, because I deal with statistics almost everyday. I read the article and looked at the data. It DOES show a discrepency in the predictibility of the exit polls when compared with the results of the election.
So please enlighten me as to why everywhere else in the world exit polls exist as the barometer for free elections, except in the US when electronic voting machines are at play. Do the laws of statistics somehow fail to work at these locations? Is there some sort of "magic" physics that causes the exit polls not to work here, with electronic voting, yet the wrok EVERYWHERE there is a paper trail?
We contested the elections in the Ukraine on what? Yep, the EXIT POLLS!!! Why does it show election fraud every but the US? Open you eyes man.
Now, how about these papers, or are you going to call Penn and Berkeley PhD professors hacks too.
http://ucdata.berkeley.edu/new_web/VOTE2004/election04_WPwappendices.pdf
http://mediastudy.com/freeman.pdf
Furthermor, as you call it a "self professed" acedemic, maybe you should e-mail the University of Illinois, because that is where one of the authors is a professor. Maybe they'd like to hear your opinion on how he has "passed this off as science". Man, it's right out of the republican handbook. Bring doubt into the credibility of the person making the claim.