How do I know how he really feels?

Okay so I had a serious boyfriend in high school and we broke up about four months ago. Right after we broke up I started my freshmen year of college and had a miserable start because I was still getting over my ex-boyfriend who is now the biggest jerk and loser ever (I defintley don't miss him). I got over him finally and was ready to move on. I met a guy, who is a sophmore. We became friends quickly and got along great. Well some things happened between us and afterward he told me that he wasn't ready for a relationship and that he was still on his ex-girlfriend and until he was over her I was wasting my time with him. Well we got past that and were still friends and became very very close. He hasn't dated anyone so I believe what he told me and I believe it wasn't personal. Well a little while ago my ex-boyfriend begun contacting me. And this guy(my friend) hated it. He felt that this guy was dangerous and that he must protect me. For the past two months he has been working with me on this and trying to keep me away from him. I've seen my ex but nothing has ever come of it (Actually the more I see him, the happier I am that we aren't together). Well the other night I was very upset at my friend (the guy) and I called my ex to talk. Well he decided to come see me. My guy friend (who was drunk) came to talk to me and prevent this. He told me that he cared about me more than a friend and that he doesn't want anything to happen to me because he would miss me if I were gone (i'm not sure why he thought I was going somewhere....but again drunk), and I told him that I was falling in love with him, because I am (and I wasnt drunk). He said that if I didn't see or talk to my ex for a month than we would try a relationship. He said that even though he were drunk that he would remember this and that the only way he had enough courage to tell me is because he was drunk. I asked him about what he had said about me wasting my time with him and he said "Basically i'm an idiot." Well this completley screwed me up and made me so excited. I told a few close friends ( a few that we share). Well I talked to him the next day and he didn't remember! I was so upset. The friends told him what he said and he still hasnt said that he feels that way or denied it. He won't talk to me about it. He told his roomie that he feels either way he's screwed. If he tells me he loves me he feels like he might break my heart eventually. If he pushes me away, he'll lose me. But if he just kind of strings me a long than I still be here and I'll stay away from my ex. That's sounds very manipulative to me. I've tried talking to him about it but he dodges. All of our friends thinks he has feelings for me. I don't understand why he would make all that stuff up. I know when most people are drunk they don't lie, ane he is a very honest person. I think maybe he told me that just to keep me away from my ex but why wont he just say that. I do love him but im very hurt. He hurts me a lot with his insensitive comments and I've tried so many times to talk to him. Do you think he meant what he said to me and more importantly what shoud I do? We're about to go away for break. I think this space will do us good. He says he needs space to think. I don't know what he needs to think about. I just don't understand him. My heart hurts and i'm so confused....help please.