What will Iraq be like after the election?

Re: What will Iraq be like after the election?
> How long will it take for the new Shiite government to kick the U.S. out of
> the country?
They won't kick the US out. Iraq will not suddenly stabilize because of the
election. And the US armed forces will stay until the country is "stable
enough" for them to leave.

> Will the government become even more repressive than Hussein
> in order to control the Sunni insurgents?
They would if they could. They can't. So they won't.

> Will the Shiites cozy up to the Iranians and produce WMDs with the U.S.
> impotent to do anything to stop them?
Shiites or not, there'll be precious little Arab-Persian cozying.

>What will happen to the Kurds stuck between the Turks and the
> Shiites?
Other than the occupying forces, the Peshmerga is the best fighting force
in Iraq. The real question is what will happen to the Kurds within Turkey
who would desperately love to join an independent Kurdistan.

Just my totally unsubstantiated opinion.

Re: What will Iraq be like after the election?


The Shiites have patiently waited for the elections to officially put them in power befor excercising their control. Once they are in control the U.S. will have little or no say in the running of the country; it will be up to the new Iraqi government, controlled by the Shia. If they say "leave tomorrow" the U.S. has no choice but to obey. Bush has no stomach to face the wrath of the Shiite clerics and the forces they can muster. It would mean the need for hundreds of thousands more U.S. troops to fight, and for what reason? After the election, there is no authority for the U.S. to remain except at the invitation of the Shiite government.

It would mean a civil war, and the question is whether the weakened sunni insurgents could stand up to the Shiites. And the Shiites would be merciless against the Sunnis to restore order and enact revenge.

There is reason to believe that Chalabi, the leader of the Iraqi National Congress and the person who played a large role in convincing Bush to invade Iraq, if not working on behalf of Iran, at least had their blessing to urge Bush to invade Iraq. The reasons are twofold: Iran hated Hussein and wanted a friendly Shiite government in Iraq, and Iran wanted the U.S. off their back.

Yes the Turkish Kurds want a free Kurdistan to join, which is why the Turks oppose this. The Shiites also oppose a Kurdistan.