Russian take on Kyoto Treaty

http://www.inauka.ru/english/article48881.html

The Kyoto protocol is a "brown plague", according to Russian president's adviser

by Sergei Leskov There's been a big scandal echoing around the premises of the Russian Academy of sciences this week. A number of foreign scientists of authority, who never participated in the UN commissions on the subject, took part in a seminar on climate change and the Kyoto protocol for the first time. The seminar was held in Moscow at the Russian Academy of Sciences. During the seminar, Sir David Kind, senior science adviser to the British PM, urged that the president of the Russian Academy of Sciences give orders for the removal of any "unofficial scholars" from the auditorium.

There's been a big scandal echoing around the premises of the Russian Academy of sciences this week. A number of foreign scientists of authority, who never participated in the UN commissions on the subject, took part in a seminar on climate change and the Kyoto protocol for the first time. The seminar was held in Moscow at the Russian Academy of Sciences. During the seminar, Sir David Kind, senior science adviser to the British PM, who attended the meeting along with a team of "official" British scientists urged that the president of the Russian Academy of Sciences give orders for the removal of any "unofficial scholars" from the auditorium. David King threatened to quit the seminar, he made direct telephone calls to the British Foreign Minister, who happened to be in Moscow at the time, he also contacted the office of Mr. Blair.

As a result, 4 hours of the seminar were lost due to the scandal. Sir David King made a short introduction while addressing the seminar, he barely answered the questions, and was gone shortly afterwards. "It's the first time I experience such a downright pressure," said Andrei Illarionov, an adviser to the President of the Russian Federation. "I'd have written it off as another example of communist propaganda with respect of foreign delegations if I'd been told something like that a few years ago." Yet it should be pointed out that the pressure on the meeting was put by the adviser to the President of the Russian Federation, the adviser to British Prime Minister had to merely fight off. Anyway, the first meeting between the Russian and Western experts on climate change went way beyond the scientific discussion and didn't produced the results that were somehow expected.

According to Andrei Illarionov, the Kyoto protocol comprises "assorted falsified statements. There's no real proof to back any of the scientific statements contained herein. The climate balance hasn't been disrupted. Floods and droughts don't occur more frequently than before. As regards the hurricanes, the wind speed is in decrease. There's no link between the statistics with respect to contagious diseases and the variations of temperatures. The temperatures have been slightly rising over the last 100 years. But the process can be explained by natural factors, it doesn't stem from some man-made activities. Carbon dioxide doesn't impact the temperatures, it's vice versa. The temperatures have an impact the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The Kyoto protocol can be likened to some totalitarian ideology like national socialism, Marxism etc. European countries were once controlled by the power of 'brown plague'. Today's �'plague' has a different color. This plague is threatening the world and Russia again stands in the way. There's an all-out war going on against our country, and war implies casualties. However, Russia has no solid grounds whatsoever for signing the Kyoto protocol."

The U.S. and Australia pulled out of the Kyoto protocol which was ratified by European countries. Russia's stance on the agreement is crucial for its implementation. The mechanisms of the agreement aimed at curbing green house emissions into the atmosphere can be eventually put into gear only if Russia ratifies the document. But the agreement could seriously hinder Russia's anticipated economic growth. For example, the agreement provides for the sale of emission allowances in the neighborhood of $4 to $5 per one ton while the amount of a fine for breaching the allowances can jump to $160 to $600 per ton within the next few years.

The seminar on issues relating to climate change and the Kyoto protocol was held in Moscow at the advice of the Russian president. Vladimir Putin called on the Russian scientists to analyze the feasibility of ratifying the agreement following the international conference on climate change held in Moscow in the summer of 2003. The opinions on the agreement varied greatly. The seminar kicked off in January this year. So far 12 meetings have been held, 20 reports have been delivered. The following participants expressed their views on the subject: Russian academicians Yuri Osipov, Yuri Israel (head of the seminar), Dmitry Lvov, Georgi Galitsyn, Kamo Demirchian, Georgi Zavarzin, Valentin Dymnikov; corresponding members of the Russian Academy of Sciences Igor Mokhov, Viktor Danilov-Danilyan, Alexei Makarov, along with a number of other specialists. Andrei Illariaonov who hadn't been involved in issues relating to climate change before, was appointed by President Putin to supervise the seminar. Can a person become an expert in a particular field of science in six months? It's a different question that largely has to do with a person's abilities. Moreover, the period seems even shorter since the presidential adviser began speaking out against the document from the very beginning. Looking back at the history of our science, we can see that any complex scientific task can be carried out in a crash program once political authority is vested on a person. Any doubts aside, Sir David King had been fully aware of Illarionov's point of view on the problem. It had been cut-and-dried prior to the notorious meeting. That team of "unofficial" climate specialists was put together in an effort to sing along with the adviser. The scandal was imminent. It was programmed to break out.

An Izvestia columnist had a chance to speak with Sir David King after his leaving the premises of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He left the building holding his head high. Sir David sounded cool and collected while talking to me. It was hard to imagine that he could have terrorized the meeting in any way.

"On behalf of the British government I can tell you that we mean to cut the greenhouse emissions by 50 percent by the year 2050 regardless of policies pursued by other countries with regard to the greenhouse effect," said he. "The measures don't impede growth of our economy. British GDP grew by 45 percent since 1990 while the emissions were cut down by 12 percent. I've just been to China, Korea, India. The economies of those countries are enjoying a rapid growth. Those countries show a great deal of interest in the Kyoto protocol, they will be engaged in the implementation of the second stage of the agreement. The Kyoto protocol is part of the processes that are extremely important to humankind in terms of steps aimed at controlling the global warming. All the nations should join the process. Russia will partake of the process by signing the agreement. British scientists maintain leading positions in climatology, a situation that's been ridden by certain historical factors, and we have a good understanding [sic] with the Russian Academy of Sciences. I'm confident that we shall be able to understand each other even better understanding in the future. We shouldn't make a big mistake by putting the issue of the global warming on hold, we shouldn't waste our time in further discussions. By the way, I've recently met with former U.S. Vice President Al Gore. He believes that America is very likely to join the Kyoto protocol if the Democrats win the November election."

Every witness has his own story to tell. The saying fits well in the debate on the Kyoto protocol. Scientists have different opinions on the subject. It's small wonder since supercomputers are still incapable of producing a climate change pattern even for the near future, not to mention things expected in the long run. The actual climate change patterns are still based on a limited number of parameters. They look oversimplified and remind those old theories of the flat earth that were popular centuries ago.

A team of "official" British scientists swiftly followed suit of Sir David King after the incident at the Academy, therefore I could only ask around the experts sparked off King's irritation. Nils Merner from the Stockholm University claims that findings gained by numerous researches on location don't show any threat of flooding to the Maldives (according to data contained in the Kyoto documents, the islands are doomed to flooding). At a maximum, the water level is expected to rise 5 cm under the calculation accuracy 15 cm plus or minus. Professor Paul Writer from the Pasteur Institute points out openly that the Kyoto experts on virology are a bunch of dilettantes whose names are unheard of in the scientific community. He stresses solid evidence showing links between epidemic diseases and a large number of factors. In his opinion, it's just ridiculous to use the temperature variations as the main cause behind the spread of epidemics.

Professor Julian Morris from the Buckingham University says that British scientists still disagree on the theories outlining the foundations of the Kyoto protocol. To him the protocol looks like a game of chess where only one piece is allowed to play. He believes that Sir David King should either review his position or step down.

It's still unclear whether the global warming is coming. No clarity about the future of the Kyoto protocol either. One thing is clear enough, though. The above issues have given rise to much controversy.