The NEXT coming Oz election thread!

bummer, if true.

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Early voters give both parties a scent of success

Meanwhile in Perth, customers' early exit polls from Miss Maud's chain of coffee houses have given the Prime Minister hope.

Customers have picked every election winner since 1996 with a 100% strike rate. This year, 16 "polling booths" have been set up in various stores, where coffee lovers can drop a bean in the beaker representing their preferred party.

Over three weeks, more than 33,000 voters have cast their bean, and the voting has percolated down to a Liberal lead of 42% to Labor's 36%.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/early-voters-give-both-parties-a-scent-of-success/2007/11/23/1195753307362.html

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My guess is that voters like Rudd, but human nature is that change causes uncertainty....so they vote Rudd when it doesn't count, but get nervous as the real test gets closer.

...then afterwards they wonder why they voted Howard.

Of course, I could delusional, or just plain imagining things Confused

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I just realised how to tell if my guess is right...if labour wins a much greater percentage of extra seats in the senate as compared to the upper house, then its likely because people are nervous....

...now I'm wondering how this will all pan out.

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realjohnboy wrote:

I have actually been following this, but without comment. Rudd, I think, will win. But that is just my guess.

G'day, realjohnboy! Very Happy

Lovely to see you here in our hour of need! I hope, I hope that your prediction is correct!

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vikorr wrote:

My guess is that voters like Rudd, but human nature is that change causes uncertainty....so they vote Rudd when it doesn't count, but get nervous as the real test gets closer.

...then afterwards they wonder why they voted Howard.

Of course, I could delusional, or just plain imagining things

Nah, you're not delusional, vikkorr.
Most likely you've got a bit of a case of the heeby-jeebies, just like me & just about everyone else I know! (I shouldn't have watched Lateline last night ... something about Kroger's confident act completely unnerved me! Shocked

)
But anyway, I hope you're prediction is completely wrong!

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dlowan wrote:

Stinking Howard has had a late surge, hasn't he?

I can't stand it.

According to two very recent polls out of 3, Deb, yes.

I can't stand it either .... the thought that there's even a remote possibility I could wake up tomorrow morning & he could still be our PM! This is the stuff of nightmares! Aggghhhhhhhhhh! Shocked

But then this morning, I got up early & made my way down to my nearest polling booth, at a local primary school. Arrived just after 8 am & already there was a very long line of very serious looking people lined up to vote. Took something like 25 minutes to get my ballot papers! The good folk of the "People's Republic of Moreland" ( :wink: ) were about to have their say! No doubt (judging from previous experience) their say was not going to be that much different to mine! THAT calmed my noives! Very Happy

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Dutchy wrote:

dlowan wrote:
Stinking Howard has had a late surge, hasn't he?

I can't stand it.

That makes two of us.

Make that 3.

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I've just got back from voting. Mumpad is scruting or crossing names off or somesuch thing at our local booth. After I got my balot papers I went to have a chat with her. She wont be home until after 9 tonight.

I then pretended I was going to put the green paper in the senate box and the white paper in the reps box.

The look on the ladies face was priceless.

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msolga wrote:

dlowan wrote:
Stinking Howard has had a late surge, hasn't he?

I can't stand it.

According to two very recent polls out of 3, Deb, yes.

I can't stand it either .... the thought that there's even a remote possibility I could wake up tomorrow morning & he could still be our PM! This is the stuff of nightmares! Aggghhhhhhhhhh!

But then this morning, I got up early & made my way down to my nearest polling booth, at a local primary school. Arrived just after 8 am & already there was a very long line of very serious looking people lined up to vote. Took something like 25 minutes to get my ballot papers! The good folk of the "People's Republic of Moreland" ( :wink: ) were about to have their say! No doubt (judging from previous experience) their say was not going to be that much different to mine! THAT calmed my noives!

What sort of electorate do you live in? I'm in Labor heartland. Our vote won't go to preferences, with the Labor candidate likely to take roughly 70%of the primary vote.

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Quote:

"I hope we will win. I believe we will win. It is in the hands of my fellow Australians," Howard told reporters.

Source

I hope, he's wrong with this as he was with his politics.

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Wilso wrote:

msolga wrote:
dlowan wrote:
Stinking Howard has had a late surge, hasn't he?

I can't stand it.

According to two very recent polls out of 3, Deb, yes.

I can't stand it either .... the thought that there's even a remote possibility I could wake up tomorrow morning & he could still be our PM! This is the stuff of nightmares! Aggghhhhhhhhhh!

But then this morning, I got up early & made my way down to my nearest polling booth, at a local primary school. Arrived just after 8 am & already there was a very long line of very serious looking people lined up to vote. Took something like 25 minutes to get my ballot papers! The good folk of the "People's Republic of Moreland" ( :wink: ) were about to have their say! No doubt (judging from previous experience) their say was not going to be that much different to mine! THAT calmed my noives!

What sort of electorate do you live in? I'm in Labor heartland. Our vote won't go to preferences, with the Labor candidate likely to take roughly 70%of the primary vote.

Me: very traditional Labor heartland with serious green inroads, due to "trendification", if you could call it that. Lots of working class families, reasonably high unemployment numbers, a huge migrant population (all varieties of nationalities, but largely Middle Eastern, Greek, Italian, Turkish, etc, etc), undergoing major changes due to the influx of folk from the very inner, inner city due to real estate prices. A big melting pot! I just love it here! Very Happy

So the vote is largely Labor, with growing Greens support.

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Walter Hinteler wrote:

Quote:
"I hope we will win. I believe we will win. It is in the hands of my fellow Australians," Howard told reporters.
Source

I hope, he's wrong with this as he was with his politics.

Oh I hope you're right, Walter!

5:25 now.

The polls close in 35 minutes in the eastern (most populated) states. (EST time)

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I can bring the first bit of early good news. The word from the party hacks on the private polling (which is normally very accurate) and the mood from the liberals is "dire". From Labor it's cautious. Hopefully, this will be the first of a lot of good news this evening.

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"Dire" sounds just wonderful to me! Laughing

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I remember from a previous election, one of the experts saying that Labor voters tend to vote earlier in the day, so you're more likely to see liberal votes at the top of ballot boxes. Meaning that early swings to Labor are very good news.

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Important seats to watch from the VERY early counts.

Braddon
Corangamite
Macarthur
Parramatta
Gilmore
Eden-Monaro (the winner of this seat has been the government for the last 80 years or so. Very important indicator seat and a big swing our way).
BENNELONG Very Happy

Robertson

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Can now add
Bass
Dobell

All the seats I've listed are showing swings to the ALP greater than the margin the LIBS hold them by.

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Wilso wrote:

BENNELONG

Yes!!!!!

(that's the prime minister'seat to those of you not in the know! :wink:)

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(gotta go out for a bit now. Back later!)

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The NEXT coming Oz election thread!

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