Political Junkie Alert! Time To Put Down Some Chips!

nimh: I have WI (10 electoral votes) going for Mr Kerry, along with HI (4), MI (17), OH (20), NM (5), PA (21). MN (10), NV (5), IA (7) and NH (4).
Mr Bush gets FL (27).
I reckon I'm betting on this rationale (and there is some wishful thinking going on, I concede): The number of newly registered voters is incredible. The number of people who tell pollsters they will vote could result in a turnout unequalled for perhaps 20 years. There is no telling how the new voters, the young voters, will go, but my feeling is that they will lean towards Mr Kerry.
The war in Iraq is an albatross for Mr Bush. He can talk and talk about how we are winning but we've heard, some of us quite intimately in our youth, about winning "hearts and minds."
And the economy? Well, that would be another paragraph or two. But I'll stop here.
I don't think it will be as close as many predict. Thanks and wish us luck. -johnboy-

Hm. Ohio might still totally flip either way, of course. But it's Wisconsin I'm worried about when it comes to my prediction.

This is what the seven polls out since Friday have for WI:

- Kerry +3-8% (Zogby tracking),
- Kerry +2% (Mason-Dixon),
- Kerry +1% (ARG),
- Bush +3% (Strategic Vision),
- Bush +3% (Badger),
- Bush +3% (Fox),
- Bush +8% (Gallup).

And what polls. Zogby's been all over the place with his tracking polls. ARG always skews Democrat. Strategic Vision is a Republican pollster. The Badger poll this year repeatedly had Bush up by some ridiculous lead when other pollsters had it tied. And Gallup's poll looks like an outlier, so far off from where all the other pollsters have the race. If it weren't for the Mason-Dixon poll I'd give it to Bush by just 1%.

I cant bear the word "tossup" anymore ...

So, nimh, your last call is ...

Ah heck. I'll stay with my last one.

It feels irresponsibly optimistic - I can't quite believe he'd pull the whole bunch off -- but hey, if you can't believe in the cause the night before, when ever will you.

I'm also predicting Bush to win the popular vote though. By a half-percent margin.

And then hopefully, once it's been both parties' turn to lose the EV while winning the popular vote, it'll finally edge 'em on to consider electoral reform.

Not that my prediction is a very original one ... Check out this page at Race 2004 for another 2,800+ predictions, a whole bunch of 'em the same as mine.

KW, lemme disabuse of of the notion I hold Rasnussen in any greater esteem than any other pollster. From the go, I've maintained no one poll, or pollster, in and of itself apart from its relationship to its contemporaries over time, is of much use or significance.

And whether you find it difficult to believe or not, Scott Rasmussen is a Democrat.

Wrong thread, Timber ... he cant hear you here

Ackkkkk!!!!!!! Thanks, nimh ... too damned many windows open ... gottem spread across 2 19" monitors right now

Now I gotta see if I can figure out where that one was s'posed to go

The bookie one ... ;-)

Yeah ... found it, thanks. I'll just leave my little embarrassment up there ... its sorta funny, really. Hell, I THOUGHT I was payin' attention

Trouble is, I'm payin' attention to 1/2 a dozen different boards and a couple dozen threads ... along with tryin' to keep up with breakin' news.

Half a dozen boards?! God - this one's already a bit much ...

Yeah, I'm a glutton for punishment. European markets open soon, and I'm gonna get even busier.