nimh wrote:So, in my first prediction I said Bush 280 - Kerry 258 ...
Then last week I gave OH and the last Maine EV to Kerry, but WV and IA to Bush and arrived at Bush 271 - Kerry 267.
At the moment, I am now leaning to giving NM, too, to Bush - but WI to Kerry. That would mean ... Bush 266 - Kerry 272.
But its very tenuous ... I'll be back, still.
Hm. Ohio might still totally flip either way, of course. But it's Wisconsin I'm worried about when it comes to my prediction.
This is what the seven polls out since Friday have for WI:
- Kerry +3-8% (Zogby tracking),
- Kerry +2% (Mason-Dixon),
- Kerry +1% (ARG),
- Bush +3% (Strategic Vision),
- Bush +3% (Badger),
- Bush +3% (Fox),
- Bush +8% (Gallup).
And what polls. Zogby's been all over the place with his tracking polls. ARG always skews Democrat. Strategic Vision is a Republican pollster. The Badger poll this year repeatedly had Bush up by some ridiculous lead when other pollsters had it tied. And Gallup's poll looks like an outlier, so far off from where all the other pollsters have the race. If it weren't for the Mason-Dixon poll I'd give it to Bush by just 1%.
I cant bear the word "tossup" anymore ...