Political Junkie Alert! Time To Put Down Some Chips!

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There are a bunch of political threads on A2K with many people telling us what should or will happen on Nov 2nd, just 14 days away.

My challenge to each of you is to predict how you think the electoral college vote will turn out.

There are 538 electoral votes so 270 is the magic number needed to win.

You can vote early; you can vote often but whatever your last choice is (by midnight on Oct 31st-Halloween) is the one you are stuck with.

If you need help in finding some sites that follow the electoral college on a regular basis, please ask. I'm sure some A2Ker will help.

To add to the amusement, I ask each player to put a bet on the table of some kind ($5.00 US maximum) that would go to the person coming closest to the actual electoral college vote. I'm offering a can of Virginia gourmet peanuts. If you don't have $5.00 to spare or if shipping becomes an issue, no problem. We're not going to enforce the betting part. What would you offer from your part of the country or the world?

I look forward to hearing from yall. -rjb-

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Well, I'll bet my eyeball... :wink:

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I'm waaaaay too superstitious for this kinda thing...

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Unless you are serious about wanting actual items bet... in which case, I guess one package of Atebara's Taro chips would be all right to bet... I'll have to think about how I predict the election will go... Certainly our 4 votes will go to Kerry. Very Happy

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An eyeball? Probably worth more than 5 bucks and I'd sure hate to open that little package.
Atebara's Taro chips? Great! (johnboy tries to remember where princesspupule is from. Fails) What are taro chips?
Come on, Soz, please play.

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Here's a picture of the product, but not Atebara's brand... their site is still under construction... Taro is a root vegetable, a staple of hawaiians for centuries.

https://www.alohagoodies.com/Taro.html

Btw, I live in Hawaii, and on Hawaii... within sight of Mauna Kea...

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I was in Hawaii once, on a refueling stop from CA to VN in 1969,
True Story: I Swear I Am Not Making This Up.

When johnboy was a lad he had a dirt collection. A dirt collection. When our family went on vacation I would fill a little 1 oz jar with dirt from each state we visited, label it carefully, and add it to my collection on a shelf in my room. 30, maybe 40 little jars.
But, of course, I grew older and discovered, for example, that girls weren't so yucky after all. High school, college, and then VN. I forgot about my dirt collection.

So we were stretching our legs in Hawaii. I reached down, grabbed a small amount of dirt, managed eventually to find an envelope and mailed it home. Hawaii. -rjb-

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Anyway, right now I would bet my peanuts on Mr Kerry ending up with 273 and Mr Bush winding up with 265 (=538). That entails awarding (amongst a few others) Mr Kerry MN, OH, PA and WI and giving Mr Bush the biggie of FL (along with a few smaller ones?)
Your guesses...

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Well, Kerry is a dirtbag. Very Happy

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realjohnboy: You might want to check out this thread.

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Thanks, cjhsa, for your insightful comment. Your message seems to have ended without your prediction/bet. Please re-post the rest of it.
And thanks joefromchicago for the link that seems to have stalled around Oct 10th. Its tough to keep some threads going, isn't it. I'll try to read through it later this evening and comment if I have anything new to say.
-johnboy-

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You were talking about Kerry and dirt collections. I thought it was fitting.

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Must be something wrong with my computer, cjhsa. Your posts seem to end before we get to your prediction of what the electoral college outcome will be. Please try again. And what are you offering to the winner if they get closer than you? Thanks for your continued participation. Johnboy/dirtboy

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Well, this was mine from Joe's thread:

nimh wrote:

I'm on record as saying there's a 55% chance still of Bush getting elected .. and as saying that I think he'll win by a 5% margin.

So if I'm to stick with that latter prediction, it should be an EC wipeout ...

But thats no fun in a prediction game like this, is it? So lemme try make a list based purely on where the race is now.

Of the swing states you mention, Joe, I have

- AZ(10), AR(6), CO(9), FL(27), LA(9), MO(11), NC(15), NV(5), TN(11), VA(13) and 1 out of 4 of ME's votes going for Bush.

Hardly any doubts there. Kerry's been polling well in CO and NV, but somehow I don't quite believe he could actually make it there. Perhaps NV sooner than CO. I don't believe Kerry stands a chance of winning FL this year.

- CT(7), DE(3), IA(7), MD(10), MI(17), MN(10), NH(4), NJ(15), NM(5), OR(7), PA(21), WA(11), WV(5) and 3 out of 4 of ME's seats going for Kerry.

Some doubts there. I'd gamble on Kerry taking NH this year, and he should get WV too, economy's real tough there. But NM and IA ... not at all sure, on those.

In fact, I was left with those two last, together with the two remaining states: OH(20) and WI(10). Just counting the above, Bush gets 249 and Kerry 259. Bush needs 269, so 20 more, and Kerry 270, so 11 more still. So in my scenario here, it all depends on Ohio (what else is new).

Well, you're gonna hate me for this, but I'm gonna have to be consistent with my earlier predictions. Bush wins WI - and OH, after a recount. There you go: Bush 280 - Kerry 258 - and a nation in bitter chagrin.

Ah, what the heck -- thats no fun thing to post! OK, Kerry wins OH and the EC goes to Kerry 278 to 260! Yaaaayyy!

Now, revising ...

By now, I do actually honestly think Kerry has a fair chance of winning Ohio. I also don't think anymore that Bush will win by a 5% margin. And let's give all of Maine's EVs to Kerry, last poll there had him in the lead by 10%.

But I've become pessimistic about West-Virginia and Iowa. Things don't look good there for Kerry. And if Bush wins all the EV's I gave him above except Ohio's and the 1 from Maine, but plus WV and IA, he still wins: 271 to 267.

Not gonna bet anything on that yet (not even something virtual) till the elections are nearer still ... I'm hoping things will still turn enough for me to be able to make a more optimistic prediction.

---

Then here's 1 nightmare scenario ... consider this. Say, my above prediction holds true for all of mainland America, with one exception: Kerry wins Nevada. That means that when the all the mainland states have voted and their results are in, Kerry leads 268 to 266, with just one more state to come in: Hawaii. Where two polls this week have actually shown Bush to be ahead by 1%.

Now that would be a looooong election night ...

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I'm sticking with my prediction: Kerry-273- Bush-265- for now.
I believe I heard nimh say (spongily): Bush-271- Kerry-267-

Hawaii? I wonder how many political reporters will be trying to convince their editors that they need to go to Hawaii for an extended period of time in order to cover the story.

I've got HI, ME, MI, OH, PA, MN, IA, NM and WI going for Kerry; and FL and NH going for Bush.

Any other real or virtual bets? 7 days to Halloween.

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"Spongily"? What does that mean?

(Sorry, its not in my dictionary or in webster.com)

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Sorry, nimh, for using a colloquialism that may be unique to my region or perhaps even my house. A prediction made "spongily" is one offered tentatively; i.e without complete and total conviction that it is right.
Amazingly enough, the word is in one of my dictionaries (Random House College). I reckon the derivation is based on the notion that sponges don't have any (back)bones. -johnboy

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Good evening.
So are any of you political pontificators ready to predict the outcome?
Electoral votes for Mr Bush and Mr Kerry. Or are you a bunch of weenies dealing in the abstract? Always the abstract, the theoretical, never having to say: Yes, this is what I believe WILL happen
johnboy puts down his final tally as Mr Kerry @285 and Mr Bush @253.
The huge surge in new voters should make the difference.

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285/253, really? How do you divvy up the battleground states?

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So, in my first prediction I said Bush 280 - Kerry 258 ...

Then last week I gave OH and the last Maine EV to Kerry, but WV and IA to Bush and arrived at Bush 271 - Kerry 267.

At the moment, I am now leaning to giving NM, too, to Bush - but WI to Kerry. That would mean ... Bush 266 - Kerry 272.

But its very tenuous ... I'll be back, still.

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Political Junkie Alert! Time To Put Down Some Chips!

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