Predict the electoral vote result

Re: Predict the electoral vote result
Here are my predictions:

Swing states - 26 states (271 electoral votes)
AZ(10) Bush-10
AR(6) Bush-6
CO(9) Bush-9
CT(7) Kerry-7
DE(3) Kerry-3
FL(27) Kerry-27
IA(7) Kerry-7
LA(9) Bush-9
ME(4)* Kerry-4
MD(10) Kerry-10
MI(17) Kerry-17
MN(10) Kerry-10
MO(11) Bush-11
NC(15) Bush-15
NV(5) Bush-5
NH(4) Kerry-4
NJ(15) Kerry-15
NM(5) Kerry-5
OH(20) Bush-20
OR(7) Kerry-7
PA(21) Kerry-21
TN(11) Bush-11
VA(13) Bush-13
WA(11) Kerry-11
WV(5) Bush-5
WI(10) Bush-10

TOTAL
SWING
Bush - 124
Kerry - 148

ELECTORAL VOTE TOTAL
Bush -257
Kerry -281

I pretty much agree with you, but I think Kerry will take Ohio too. I'm not sure who will get Florida...hmmm.

Bush will be re-elected President. Nuff said.

I agree with you, Joe, except that I think CT might go for Bush (there's a connection there). So my totals would be Bush 264 and Kerry 274

Joe and Colorbook,

You are both predicting that Florida will decide the election again. Pretty scary.

I think Connecticut is fairly safely in the Kerry camp. There is a lot of economic pain in this state and it is getting worse.

I wouldn't put NH in the "safe" category for Kerry just yet.

I based my projections primarily on the data at the Electoral Vote Predictor. My predictions only call for two switches from this map: Florida and Iowa. Iowa is pretty close anyway, but I just sense that it will go for Kerry like it did in the caucuses. Florida isn't as close (according to the most recent poll numbers), but I think that Democratic voters are just more motivated in that state. Now, if Ohio (which looked like a sure bet for Bush a couple of weeks ago but which might be back in play now) tipped over into the Kerry column, we wouldn't need to worry about Florida.

[EDIT: I just realized that I mixed up Vermont and New Hampshire (you'd think I would have figured out those two states by now), so Vermont(3) should be a "safe" state for Kerry and New Hampshire(4) should be a swing state. I'll still put NH's 4 votes into Kerry's column, though -- that New England solidarity and all]

Forget that. If everyone else is going left, New Hampshire will go right just to be different. (pure cussedness actually)

the nice thing about the turn in the polls is that Republicans don't like to be 'beaten' (pride and dignity and all that ****) so if they think the vote is going against them they won't vote to avoid being ridiculed!

Actually, I just didn't want to go to all the work of changing my vote totals. If you think my geography is bad, just get a load of my math skills.

joe, you need to go look at the LA Times electoral college map. (You'll have to register. It's worth it.)

It lets you click states back and forth (even to tossup) as you muck around with the map.

I have Kerry winning swing states NM, MI (not really in the swing), MN, ME, WA, OR, PA, and FL for a total of 270 on the nose.

Which means he wins even without IA, OH, WI, NH, AR, or MO.

There is no way the American public is naive enough (or stupid enough) to continue George Bush in office.

Bush is an abject failure at the job...his administration is the most incompetent, counterproduction oriented administration in US history...and the mess they will leave behind will plague the next several future presidents.

John Kerry will win...and win decisively!

LOL! Hadnt seen this thread yet ...

I'm on record as saying there's a 55% chance still of Bush getting elected .. and as saying that I think he'll win by a 5% margin.

So if I'm to stick with that latter prediction, it should be an EC wipeout ...

But thats no fun in a prediction game like this, is it? So lemme try make a list based purely on where the race is now.

Of the swing states you mention, Joe, I have

- AZ(10), AR(6), CO(9), FL(27), LA(9), MO(11), NC(15), NV(5), TN(11), VA(13) and 1 out of 4 of ME's votes going for Bush.

Hardly any doubts there. Kerry's been polling well in CO and NV, but somehow I don't quite believe he could actually make it there. Perhaps NV sooner than CO. I don't believe Kerry stands a chance of winning FL this year.

- CT(7), DE(3), IA(7), MD(10), MI(17), MN(10), NH(4), NJ(15), NM(5), OR(7), PA(21), WA(11), WV(5) and 3 out of 4 of ME's seats going for Kerry.

Some doubts there. I'd gamble on Kerry taking NH this year, and he should get WV too, economy's real tough there. But NM and IA ... not at all sure, on those.

In fact, I was left with those two last, together with the two remaining states: OH(20) and WI(10). Just counting the above, Bush gets 249 and Kerry 259. Bush needs 269, so 20 more, and Kerry 270, so 11 more still. So in my scenario here, it all depends on Ohio (what else is new).

Well, you're gonna hate me for this, but I'm gonna have to be consistent with my earlier predictions. Bush wins WI - and OH, after a recount. There you go: Bush 280 - Kerry 258 - and a nation in bitter chagrin.






Ah, what the heck -- thats no fun thing to post! OK, Kerry wins OH and the EC goes to Kerry 278 to 260! Yaaaayyy!

OMG, Joe, I hope you're right. I hope you're right. I hope you're right.

BTW, nice new avatar.

nimh: I've seen reports that the Maine 2d congressional district might go to Bush. I think that race may be decided by the weather as much as by anything else (good weather=high voter turnout=Kerry takes the electoral vote).

Colorado is another problem altogether. As I understand it, an initiative on this year's ballot would allocate Colorado's electoral votes by vote percentages, not by congressional district (as Maine and Nebraska currently do). If the initiative passes, it will apply to this election; given the expected closeness of the vote in Colorado, that would almost inevitably mean that if the initiative passes Colorado will give 5 electoral votes to the winner and 4 to the loser. It would also mean that a close election could hinge on the result in Colorado, which would lead to a legal fight over the validity of the initiative. As some have suggested, a dispute over the Colorado result in 2004 could make the Florida recount look like a pillow fight.


Thanks! I was wondering if anyone noticed. I'll go back to a more Chicago-themed avatar after Halloween.

Joe, OT, and I apologise for asking you something OT, but in the thread, "I'm Wrong I'm Mistaken I Don't Care I Don't Apologize," I'm looking for a maxim they teach fellows like you in law school, and with your memory for trivia and detail, I know you know what maxim I am trying to quote." A very fine lawyer friend of mine once gave me a piece of advice on how to debate, and it was about how you press your point when you know you are right, minimize your mistakes, and pound your fist when you are caught being wrong... Or something along those lines... I was trying to suggest that Bush's handlers gave him that same maxim to follow given his behavior during his second debate... :wink:

Thanks a bunch, if you can read my mind and figure out what maxim I am trying to quote. I know you know it.

Hmm, I've been reading some interesting takes on this ballot. Ironically, it doesn't look like it will ever do Kerry any good in these elections. The logic of those who argued why not is like this:

- The ballot initiative has become strongly politicized, with Democrats supporting it to such an extent that a conservative backlash is now materialising. Basically, Colorado Republicans are now being rallied to vote against it - the idea being that, since CO usually votes Republican, the idea of splitting the EVs is just another liberal ploy.

- This means, however, that the only scenario in which the ballot initiative will pass is if the CO Democrats win the race by scoring such a victory that it outdoes the Republican rally against this initiative.

- Ergo: if the ballot initiative passes, it'll most likely be because the Dems have won the state overall, too - in which case the ballot initiative will work against them, newly splitting the EVs they would just have won. Whereas if the Republicans win the race overall, they'll probably have succeeded in defeating the ballot initiative as well - and will thus haul in the state's EVs just like always.

This, in any case, is what was gleefully being laid out by conservative pundits like Daly - and sternly being warned against by an article in The New Republic.

This is as silly a comment as:

Democrats don't like to get off of their asses (sloth and entitlement and all that ****) and so if they think the vote is going against them, they won't vote to avoid having to get up off their asses.