Elections in Germany update:No turn to the right, after all!

If West-Germans are Besserwessis we can do one better; the Dutch have an opinion about everything. Including the German elections.

According to an opinion poll by Maurice de Hond, 43% of the Dutch want a Chancellor Merkel; 32% want Schroeder; and only 25% has no opinion on the matter (or wants neither).

Merkel is especially popular among voters of the right-wing liberals of the VVD (59% vs 20% for Schroeder), the supporters of Geert Wilders (56% vs 16%) and the voters of the Christian-Democrats (54% vs 20%), But the left-liberal voters of the Democrats also clearly favour Merkel (51% vs 24%).

Voters of the Green Left however clearly favour Schroeder (by 51% against 28%), as do Labour voters, be it by not as large a margin as you'd expect (48% vs 30%). Socialist voters meanwhile can be bothered least: by 41% to 23% they prefer Schroeder, but a full 36% prefers neither.

When the question is asked what coalition government is preferred, the number of Dutch who dont know increases significantly (to 37%), but still most Dutch have an opinion. Only of the (on average lower-educated) List Fortuyn voters does a majority (58%) not know or not care.

There is no clear single preference though. A Grand Coalition of Christian-Democrats and Socialdemocrats gets most preferences, but still only of 25% of those polled. Support for that option is pretty evenly spread over the different parties, with only the Democrats significantly more enthusiastic than average (at 36%), and the Socialists (15%) and, interestingly enough, Labour voters (18%) least interested.

This Grand Coalition is overall the most preferred option of the voters of all right-of-centre parties, though "Jamaica" comes in a strong second among voters of the VVD (26% to 29% for a Grand Coalition). Of Labour, Green Left and Socialist voters, meanwhile, the largest minority comes out for a left-wing coalition of SPD, Greens and Leftists. Thats what 36% of Socialists want (compared to 15% for a Grand Coalition), 28% of Green Lefters (compared to 21% for a Grand Coalition) and 26% of Labour voters (compared to 18% for a Grand Coalition). Only Labour voters show some enthusiasm (17%) for a Traffic Light coalition.

Meanwhile, in evidence that we dont know all that much about the situation either, 42% expects there to be new elections within a year; 25% doesn't think so and the remainder doesn't know.

have been working in the garden this afternoon.
my next door neighbour started to talk about the outcome of the german election, wondering if i had any thoughts on it ... of course, i have plenty of thoughts about it - also lots of suggestions, but is anyone going to listen ?
i have never found that much interest in canada in the german election outcome in as this time.
canadians are inded concerned about the outcome , wondering what effect it will have on forming a stable german government , but also wondering if it will have any effect on europe and indeed the world as a whole.
the interest displayed by canadians is indeed astonishing. hbg

The Suedeutsche's front page news story today is that Schroeder's SPD wants to repeal a parliamentary procedural clause from the seventies that allows CDU and CSU to be considered one group (which was based on the obvious point that the two parties dont compete with each other, standing only in states where the other doesnt). The idea behind this is that if the two are split up formally, the SPD becomes the biggest party in Parliament and thus gets the formal right to appoint the Chair of Parliament and to be the first to start coalition negotiations.

I'm sorry, but what the hell are they thinking? What do they hope to achieve with such antagonistic sophistry? It goes clear against common sense, will be regarded as unsympathetic, petty strategisms by the electorate, and even if they do win the right to formally lead the first negotiations for coalition government this way, how do they think those negotiations will GO, after having hit their prospective partners in the negotiations in their very heart and guts like that?

<shakes head>

Müntefering said this morning that the SPD doesn't want to change the 'lex Union', established in the 60's, I think.

Seems, that some the SPD fraction (here: one of the vice-chairmen) wanted to be noted in the media as well - which doesn't mean at all that they talked indeed about that!

Good evening. Is this still the tread to hear about the German situation, or is there a new one? We have been preoccupied with Rita for the last few days.
The last I heard, there has been a lot of negotiating going on amonst the various parties to form a government, but no resolution. This morning I heard that Schoeders's party had proposed a power sharing where, as I understand it, he would run things for two years and than Merkel would run it for two years. Seems rather bizarre. Any liklihood that might happen? If not, what?

Bizarre or not: others did so before.

No, I don't think it will happen.

What will happen? The talks will go on. The Federal President will propose Merkle as chancellor. She won't get enough votes. A fortnight later, both Merkle and Schröder will be candidates for the votes (all running along the procedure as described in the Basic Law [constitution]. None will get enough votes.
After that, the public will get notice, what was talked about between the parties before, since in the now following Bundestag voting we will get our new chancellor, however it might be.

Until that (=late October/early Novemeber) we will have some dozen of more prcticable and bizaare ideas, a lot of various rumours .... and Schröder still being (later: acting) chancellor. :wink:

To allow Gerhard Schroeder a few more days on the holodeck. He still doesn't grasp that there is a stalemate and he has not won the election. He doesn't understand what is obvious to everybody else: that his victorious posturing is embarrassing at best, Putinesque at worst. Your mistake, nimh, is to look for a reason that goes any deeper than one man's personal ego-trip. You will search in vain, for Schroeder's reasons are all as shallow as this.

Yep, there's the precedent of Israel, where Likud and Labour worked out a similar power-sharing with rotated prime ministership before.

I dont think it will happen either, though. Either Schroeder or Merkel (and preferably, both) will have to go.

"After that, the public will get notice, what was talked about between the parties before, since in the now following Bundestag voting we will get our new chancellor, however it might be.

"Until that (=late October/early Novemeber) we will have some dozen of more prcticable and bizaare ideas, a lot of various rumours .... and Schröder still being (later: acting) chancellor. :wink" (quote from Walter)

Forgive my naivete, Walter and nimh, about German elections. I did well learning about all things Aus and I kind of got a handle on the Dutch elections, but I am confused about the procedure here. What do you mean by the sentences above that suggest that "the public will get notice (of) what was talked about." I got lost in that sentence. Thank you.

Well, what was talked about in all those coalition and pre-coalition talks.

I sincerely doubt that all an everything is published.

I personally think (now, I might consider to change my idea[s] later) that we will get a great coalition.

Perhaps not within in the next few days, but certainly before the (possible) third 'election round' for a chancellor in the Bundestag.

(And this especially, since Schröder will announce such to be his wish on German tv tonight. :wink: )

Election in Dresden (via the official Dresden site):

First vote (direct candidate)

2nd vote (parties)

so what does this mean walter, is Germany any nearer getting a government?

Johnboy echos Steves's question re the delayed Dresden election. The results seem to indicate that the SPD and the CDU are still at a relative stalemate position. And Die Linke at 20%. Is that a regional thing peculiar to thw Dresden area, or are they potentially the dealmaker for all of Germany Thanks for continuing to explain this. The notion of one of the major countries in the world being rudderless in terms of a government ...(too strong a metaphor, I am sure. Things are still getting done and some might accuse the US of being clueless for the past few years). -rjb

Not necessarily, though by now the big two parties seem to have gotten the posturing sillyness about implausible alternative governments (the Right with the Greens, Red-Green with the Free Democrats) out of the way, and resigned themselves to the unavoidability of working together in a Grand Coalition. Proper negotiations haven't even started yet, though; they're still in the stage of "Sondierung": sounding out each other about the possibility of starting negotiations.

Where the extra elections in Dresden might come in helpfully is that, until now, Schroeder and Merkel have each still stridently insisted that they want to be and will be Chancellor. How could they not, when somewhere the election campaign was still going on? Perhaps now that's finally all over, they can plausibly take more distance from those claims (as some in Schroeder's SPD had already tentatively started doing).

Something will have to happen, because neither party seems to be prepared to even start negotiations as long as the other's leader still claims the Chancellorship. Some new face or compromise candidate is needed.

A particularly bad result for either party in Dresden could have indicated which of the two would most quickly feel the pressure to step down to pave the way for negotiations, but as it is the question mark remains. I for one don't believe a second that Schroeder will stay Chancellor. But I'm doubting whether Merkel might still make it, or will have to make way for a new, unblemished or caretaker leader herself as well.

Die Linke is the alliance of the PDS, the Party of Democratic Socialists, and the WASG, the party of disgruntled leftist Socialdemocrats.

In fact, since the merger hadnt taken place yet and alliances are not allowed under German election law, Die Linke (or Linkspartei.PDS) was legally speaking still simply a renamed PDS, which merely opened its list for a number of affiliated independents.

Those independents were in practice all from the WASG, but it was quite a balancing act to get away with as many WASG'ers as possible without being challenged to the Court as in effect being an alliance.

Anyway, so the short story is that Die Linke consists of two parts: former PDSers and new voters/activists from the WASG-orientation.

The PDS is the successor party to the former East-German communist regime.

After German unification, the PDS expanded from a party of communist nostalgics and former apparatchiks to the party that voiced East-German resentment and frustration in general. By 1998, it was getting over 20% of the East-German vote.

Though especially Gisy tried to make the PDS attract a following in West-Germany too, mainly among anti-war activists dissappointed by the Greens, alternative youths and the odd old-school communist, it largely failed. Only in West-Berlin and cities like Hamburg and Bremen did the PDS get over 2% of the vote.

Die Linke now succeeded where the PDS failed. It made large inroads in West-Germany, scoring some 15% or so in Saarland (Oskar Lafontaine's home), over 5% in the Ruhr area, around 5% in Rheinland-Pfalz and Hessen, and over 8% in Bremen.

However, without a doubt their core support is still in East-Germany. Die Linke scored over 20%, often 25%, in all of the former GDR.

Dresden is in Sachsen, of all East-German states perhaps the least PDS-friendly; but here too there's an obvious reservoir of regional loyalties and ideological affinities that Die Linke can tap into.

So yes on both counts. It is largely a regional thing. But they're also large enough on a national level to hypothetically be the dealmaker. Theoretically, their support could make an all-leftwing government possible: Socialdemocrats, Greens and them. Together they got 51% of the votes and have a majority in parliament.

Of course, that will never happen, since both Socialidemocrats and Greens (for now) refuse to have anything to do with them, partly because of the historical link with the former East-German state.

Sums it up quite nicely:

Dresden Gives Merkel Edge Over Schröder

Facinating reading, Walter and nimh. Today is 2 October. When will the next significant event happen?

read an interesting article in "die welt" a few days ago. the writer stated that the next german government will have to begin making changes that should have been taken 15 years ago - after the re-unification. he said that the old west-germany did not realize at that time that this was not just a matter of west-german policies and economic strategies being introduced into east-germany, but that it would require a complete revamping of all policies and stategies in both the west and the east. he claims that west-germany was incabaple of understanding that a completely new germany had been born at that point. now, he feels , some really gut wrenching changes will have to be made - no matter who forms the new government.
in light of that, i would think that a grand coalition might be best suited to deal with those changes ... ? hbg

cartoon from "deutsche welle" news-service commenting on the german election (makes me smile).

Another cartoon...