timberlandko wrote:I suspect they've had another accident, something like the train explosion back in April.
Me too.
dlowan wrote:
Life is pretty horrible for the people of that country, sadly.
Sigh...
Yes,indeed. Member of the regime are rich. They has a possible nuclear program. But the folks suffers...
Good morning all!
Yikes! North Korea is going to be a major thorn in the side of America! I noticed in the news yesterday was also a story about Iran refusing to give up it's nuclear capabilities.
I envision sort of a
Twister like game for our Commander-in-Chief. If you have ever played
Twister and gotten yourself all twisted and stretched you can relate. I think it is a fair analogy for the future state of our troops.
North Korea, Iran. Who is next? Where do you think this country is headed? Do you think it will have any impact on our upcoming election?
Timber,
Last night before turning in I didn't find reports on seismic activity, nor comments from US official sources that would lend credence to the nuclear test possibility. The lack of vibrations is puzzling, since we would expect shockwaves from any blast as large as this one is reported to have been. I would have expected that China and NSA at least would have noted an EMP if the blast was nuclear. For the blast to have come on Sept. 9 seems a bit of a coincidence, especially on the heels of some indicators that DPRK may be preparing a test shot.
I did a scan of DPRK statements over the past few days, and its the usual drivel. If the blast was intentional there would be a pretty good chance that DPRK would be crowing. If you can't hide it, brag about it. The ultimate test will be if there are any nuclear markers found in the next 24 hours.
The most likely scenario at the moment is probably an accidental explosion of a large missile fuel depot. The location is not a good one for a test of any large explosive, but it is very near one of their long-range missile complexes. A test of a powerful explosive is somewhat alarming, but the loss/damage associated with accidentally settin off a large quantity of missile fuel is somewhat positive news. I'd much rather have a spectacular and destructive blast inside a sensitive DPRK area than boosting warheads into ROK or at other regional targets. We can only hope that their missile program is set back significantly.
PKB,
The Korean War has never ended, and the DPRK has been a threat for fifty years. It has been a "major thorn in the side" to eleven Presidents (5 Democrats and 6 republicans), and will go on being threat into the foreseeable future. DPRK is a threat, but so far a manageable one. Let us hope that it remains that way.
Korea, as I noted above, doesn't really have a good place to test nuclear munitions. Iran does have suitable test ranges. There have been many contacts between the two. Iran also has cash, something that DPRK is always short of. We know that Iran has received arms, including at least medium range missiles from North Korea. There is some evidence that Iran has components of North Korea's longest range, multi-stage missile. The two countries have almost certainly exchanged information and other nuclear program assets.
If DPRK conducts a nuclear test, most expect that it will be carried out inside Iran. This does present some difficulties for the two governments. DPRK has very limited capacity to transfer nuclear materials. It has virtually no merchant marine, and its ports are very limited. Overflights of PRC between DPRK and Iran is at the sufferance of the Chinese who would be less than thrilled if any sign of nuclear materials was detected. The Russians have limited assets in the region capable of monitoring DPRK nuclear activity/movement, but they are also watching. The US intelligence and military communities are very focused on everything entering or leaving DPRK, and our assets are extremely good though mostly classified. Bottom line, DPRK is being closely monitored and it will not be an easy thing for them to conduct nuclear tests or transfer nuclear materials to an outside party.
Finally, this thread is about reports/data/information that might help us to better understand a recent event that may have military implications. It is not about partisan politics. If you want to discuss that, then please go over to the political forum where I'm certain that you will find many people who are already posturing about the upcoming election.
Another updated story, also from Reuters:
North Korea blast not likely nuclear
N Korea says, that they blew up a moutain for a hydro-electric plan.
