12
   

On the impeachment of Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff

 
 
Robert Gentel
 
  2  
Reply Mon 16 May, 2016 11:35 pm
@Blickers,
Ultimately I think political fortunes inordinately swing by the economic winds that happen to be blowing at the time. Dilma's impeachment is at least partly caused by the dissatisfaction Brazilians have with their current economic situation, which is not her fault or doing. It was a bubble, it popped.

Getting rid of Dilma won't fix any of those problems and there is some truth to the notion that she is the scapegoat of the corruption scandal (of other politicians) and of the economic regression. But just as I don't think she deserves blame for the fall in commodities I don't think she really deserves any credit for the bubble.
0 Replies
 
Robert Gentel
 
  2  
Reply Mon 16 May, 2016 11:42 pm
@ossobuco,
Personally I think those issues are overblown in general, whenever a developing country hosts such an event there is a lot of FUD raised about their ability to host it yet despite the various issues that come up the events themselves tend to go off well (e.g despite all the trending "Sochi problems" or the China pollution fears etc those games went out n just fine).

While there are plenty of legitimate reasons to worry (a section of a seaside biking trail being built for the games just collapsed killing at least one person, there is significant pollution in the water some events will be held in, and the Zika fears will reduce attendance) I thought know the games themselves will be fine as usual and the problems that all developing countries have will merely be on full display and exaggerated in developed countries that are not used to such things.
ossobuco
 
  2  
Reply Mon 16 May, 2016 11:59 pm
@Robert Gentel,
I remember some messes to do with the World Cup, perhaps corruption as well - but all in all enjoyable from here; some angry people in the hinterland; I forget the name of the inland community.

I was just reading a book that implied slime going on in the 1932 Olympics in Los Angeles - this stuff seems forevermore, no matter where. Maybe it's just the books I've been reading.

I see your point re Rousseff. Doubt it would be a tipping point but maybe a cause for mild caution.

0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 May, 2016 02:22 am
@Robert Gentel,
I won't take your word for it.

Quote:
A 2015 document, reported in various Russian news agencies, addressed the possibility of U.S. intelligence agency involvement in the parliamentary coup against President Dilma Rousseff. “It is quite possible that the CIA is involved in the plan to stage riots in Brazil nationwide,” the Russian news outlets said in a 2015 report.

One article by Pravda explains that over the past few years, BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have become a significant geopolitical threat to the interests of the United States.

The report added that one of Washington’s biggest worries is Rousseff’s support for creating a new world reserve currency, as well as the threat BRICS poses to the U.S. dollar.


“The reasons, for which Washington wants to get rid of Dilma Rousseff, are easy to understand,” Sputnik wrote. “She signed the agreement about the establishment of the (BRICS) New Development Bank with the initial registered capital worth US$100 billion reserve fund, as well as additional US$100 billion.”

The United States government was also concerned by the construction of a 5,600 kilometer-long (about 3,200 miles) fiber-optic telecommunications system across the Atlantic to Europe initiated by Rousseff in October 2014. The new communication system would guarantee protection against foreign espionage, and would undermine the U.S.-backed communications monopolies. Telebras president told the local media that the project would be developed and implemented without the participation of any U.S. company.

Rousseff has also angered Washington by blocking major U.S. oil and mining companies from returning to Brazil and instead looking to China for investment. The United States has been looking to shore up its stakes in natural resources in Latin America, as indicated by the WikiLeaks revelation that Hillary Clinton pressured Mexico to privatize its oil industry when she was U.S. Secretary of State.


http://www.globalresearch.ca/russia-blames-foreign-interference-for-brazil-coup/5524980

I know it's RT, and I wouldn't believe a word they say about Ukraine or anywhere else classed as "near abroad," but they've got a good track record on exposing US interference in Latin America.

Btw, those internal partisan opponents of Rousseff are all wealthy and pro US.
Robert Gentel
 
  2  
Reply Tue 17 May, 2016 02:28 am
@izzythepush,
Suit yourself but this is just not a statistically significant concern for Brazilians, this is the most politically polarizing issue in Brazilian history and largely divided along partisan lines. Of course in a country of hundreds of millions of people there will be those who believe all sorts of things, and in the world at large surely articles that speculate about all sorts of things too but the bottom line is that there's not a significant percentage of Brazilians who even begin to entertain such a conspiracy theory.
izzythepush
 
  2  
Reply Tue 17 May, 2016 02:40 am
@Robert Gentel,
I won't take your word for it. You're not the only one who talks to Brazilians online. I've spoken to a number who think most of this is down to American interference.
Robert Gentel
 
  2  
Reply Tue 17 May, 2016 02:43 am
@izzythepush,
I'm not referring to my own anecdotal evidence but rather the absence of that conspiracy theory in polling data I perused. But regardless of the source you are obviously within your right to believe what you want.
izzythepush
 
  2  
Reply Tue 17 May, 2016 02:49 am
@Robert Gentel,
You could try asking yourself who compiled said data.
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 May, 2016 02:52 am
@izzythepush,
This is a good article.

Quote:
It was often said in Latin America in the early 1960s that when the United States sneezed, Latin America caught pneumonia. In fact, it was repeated year after year until the fall of 2008, when the United States caught pneumonia and Latin America sneezed.

Brazil, in particular, after a short spell of sneezing, rebounded to its pattern of robust economic growth, grounded in sophisticated research and development, diversified products and trading partners. Through years both of boom and, more recently, slump, redistributive domestic programs, like Bolsa Familia, and higher minimum wages have enabled Workers’ Party (PT) governments to narrow the country’s income gap. Meanwhile, the U.S. sinks deeply into debt to China and the domestic income gap continues to grow. The one percent are thriving; not so the 99.

The changing relationship between the United States and Brazil over the last couple of decades responds in large part to changes in the global power game and to how each of the countries has played the game. Currently undergirded by socially responsible civilian leadership and the legendary diplomatic skills of Itamaraty, the foreign ministry, Brazil can expect to be taken into account on issues of global import; moreover, its collaborative outreach has served to strengthen national self-confidence elsewhere in Latin America. Does that mean that the United States can be counted upon now to treat Brazil, and Latin America in general, with respect, like good neighbors rather than subservient and potentially subversive clients? Apparently not.


https://nacla.org/news/2015/03/06/united-states-and-brazil-reaping-what-you-sow
0 Replies
 
Robert Gentel
 
  2  
Reply Tue 17 May, 2016 03:00 am
@izzythepush,
Oh I get it, you aren't just saying that's a theory some Brazilians believe but one you yourself lend some credence to. It's quite an outlandish theory, the US would have had to influence the majority of both houses of congress after getting Dilma to admit to the fiscal irregularities and also manage to get the majority of the Brazilian people to agree and all without showing any evidence of its interference.

Or it could just be what it obviously is: the result of a perfect storm of unfavorability for Dilma. Presiding over an era of enormous bribery, the economy tanking and her not being that popular to begin with (she was barely elected in perhaps Brazil's most contentious presidential election).
izzythepush
 
  2  
Reply Tue 17 May, 2016 04:16 am
@Robert Gentel,
Of course it's outlandish. It's one you don't agree with. Did you not read the articles I posted? There's plenty of evidence, not least that the wealthy oligarchs behind the impeachment are all fervently pro American.
izzythepush
 
  2  
Reply Tue 17 May, 2016 04:28 am
@izzythepush,
I prefer to listen to people like Glenn Greenwald than fervently pro US Media outlets.

Quote:
In 2002, Brazil’s left-of-center Workers’ Party (PT) ascended to the presidency when Lula da Silva won in a landslide over the candidate of the center-right PSDB party (throughout 2002, “markets” were indignant at the mere prospect of PT’s victory). The PT remained in power when Lula, in 2006, was re-elected in another landslide against a different PSDB candidate. PT’s enemies thought they had their chance to get rid of PT in 2010, when Lula was barred by term limits from running again, but their hopes were crushed when Lula’s handpicked successor, the previously unknown Dilma Rousseff, won by 12 points over the same PSDB candidate who lost to Lula in 2002. In 2014, PT’s enemies poured huge amounts of money and resources into defeating her, believing that she was vulnerable and they had finally found a star PSDB candidate, but they lost again, this time narrowly, as Dilma was re-elected with 54 million votes.

So if you’re a plutocrat with ownership of the nation’s largest and most influential media outlets, what do you do? You dispense with democracy altogether — after all, it keeps empowering candidates and policies you dislike — by exploiting your media outlets to incite unrest and then install a candidate who could never get elected on his own, yet will faithfully serve your political agenda and ideology.

That’s exactly what Brazil is going to do today. The Brazilian Senate will vote later today to agree to a trial on the lower House’s impeachment charges, which will automatically result in Dilma’s suspension from the presidency pending the end of the trial.

Her successor will be Vice President Michel Temer of the PMDB party (pictured above). So unlike impeachment in most other countries with a presidential system, impeachment here will empower a person from a different party than that of the elected president. In this particular case, the person to be installed is awash in corruption: He is accused by informants of involvement in an illegal ethanol-purchasing scheme; he was just found guilty of, and fined for, election-spending violations and faces an eight-year ban on running for any office. He’s deeply unpopular; only 2 percent would support him for president and almost 60 percent wants him impeached (the same number that favors Dilma’s impeachment). But he will faithfully serve the interests of Brazil’s richest: He’s planning to appoint Goldman Sachs and IMF officials to run the economy and otherwise install a totally unrepresentative, neoliberal team (composed in part of the same party — PSDB — that has lost four straight elections to the PT).

None of this is a defense of PT. That party — as even Lula acknowledged to me in my interview with him — is filled with serious corruption. Dilma, in many critical ways, has been a failed president, and she is deeply unpopular. They have often aligned with and served the country’s elite at the expense of their base of poor supporters. The country is suffering economically and in almost every other way.

But the solution to that is to defeat them at the ballot box, not simply remove them and replace them with someone more suitable to the nation’s richest. Whatever damage PT is doing to Brazil, the plutocrats and their journalist-propagandists and the band of thieves in Brasilia engineering this travesty are far more dangerous. They are literally dismantling — crushing — democracy in the world’s fifth-largest country. Even The Economist — which is hostile to even the most moderate left-wing parties, hates PT, and wants Dilma to resign — has denounced impeachment as “a pretext for ousting an unpopular president” and just two weeks ago warned that “what is alarming is that those who are working for her removal are in many ways worse.” Before he became an active plotter in his own empowerment, Temer himself said last year that “impeachment is unthinkable, would create an institutional crisis. There is no judicial or political basis for it.”

The biggest scam of all is that Brazilian media elites are justifying all of this in the name of “corruption” and “democracy.” How can anyone who is minimally rational believe this is about “corruption” when they’re about to install as president someone far more implicated in corruption than the person they’re removing, and when the factions to be empowered are corrupt beyond what can be described? And if they were really concerned with “democracy,” why wouldn’t they also impeach Temer and hold new elections, letting voters decide who should replace Dilma? The answer is obvious: New elections would almost certainly result in a victory for Lula or other candidates they dislike, so what they fear most is letting the Brazilian population decide who will govern them. That is the very definition of the destruction of democracy.

Beyond obvious global significance, the reason I’ve spent so much time and energy writing about these events is because it’s been astonishing — and unnerving — to watch it all unfold, particularly given how the country’s dominant media, owned by a tiny handful of rich families, allow almost no plurality of opinion. Instead, as Reporters Without Borders put it earlier this month: “In a barely veiled manner, the leading national media have urged the public to help bring down President Dilma Rousseff. The journalists working for these media groups are clearly subject to the influence of private and partisan interests, and these permanent conflicts of interests are clearly very detrimental to the quality of their reporting.”

As someone who has lived in Brazil for 11 years, it’s been inspiring and invigorating to watch a country of 200 million people throw off the shackles of a 21-year-old right-wing (U.S./U.K. supported) military dictatorship and mature into a young, vibrant democracy and then thrive under it. To see how quickly and easily that can be reversed — abolished in all but name only — is both sad and frightening to watch. It’s also an important lesson for those, in countries all over the world, who blithely assume that things will continue as is or that they’re guaranteed stability and ongoing progress.


In sum, PT has won four straight national elections — the last one occurring just 18 months ago. Its opponents have vigorously tried — and failed — to defeat it at the ballot box, largely due to PT’s support among Brazil’s poor and working classes.


https://theintercept.com/2016/05/11/brazils-democracy-to-suffer-grievous-blow-today-as-unelectable-corrupt-neoliberal-is-installed/
0 Replies
 
Robert Gentel
 
  3  
Reply Tue 17 May, 2016 05:27 am
@izzythepush,
I did read them and they are just vague speculations, not a single shred of evidence of American interference is given just feckless speculation. You may not know me well but I'm a fierce critic of America and am well aware of its inexcusable history of meddling in Latin America. I would be the first to criticize American meddling but there is no evidence that the US has meddled at all. And on the scale it would need to have there would have been some. This is essentially a popular uprising by Brazilians fed up with the worsening economy and the corruption scandals. The US could not have won all those hearts and minds with its influence gone undetected.

With all due respect you simply do not understand the political dynamics at play. I grew up there and lived through the transition to the workers party. I am well aware of the indignant reaction by the upper class of Brazil and their steadfast rejection of the sudden shift in political power. Lula was a firebrand socialist who they had legitimate concerns about taking office after all the work FHC's administration did to stabilize the economy and it was still on shaky ground having just unpegged the currency.

One of my first posts on a2k was about these concerns that Lula, whose party had been seen like tea party fringe extremists and populists, were now in charge. I had to admit in a few years that I was wrong, Lula governed nothing like his campaign rhetoric. Didn't nationalize everything and largely continued the fiscal reforms FHC started. They added a social program component that helped up to 30 million people out of poverty.

I realized my fears were wrong but yes, the rich Brazilians were vehemently against them. But not because of some pro US vs anti US dynamic, it was classism they were mortified that the working class party had control. Brazilians of all classes tend to like Americans and American culture while being deeply wary of American government (due to our Latin American misadventures and the geopolitics they saw as being bullies). While the upper class is slightly less anti American (mainly just due to their visits to Disney World and shopping in NY) they are not "pro American" generally.

Brazilians of all classes would deeply resent any American influence into their internal politics, describing it as a pro American issue is really not accurate. This was more about internal class warfare in culture that never stopped since PT came to power.

Lula was a very charismatic leader, compared to the technocrat that is Dilma, and presided over a period of growth. He appointed Dilma as his successor and was popular enough to get her elected (though she lacks all of his political skill). After the car was scandal with billions of dollars of bribes bring paid to hundreds of politicians came out the economic troubles combined to bring millions of people to the streets calling for their leader's heads. The bus fares were being increased while their economy tanking, and they had to hear of billions in bribes stolen from public funds and lining the pockets of politicians.

When Dilma's budget irregularities came out it gave a legal instrument to actually call for her impeachment and many of the house members who support it were themselves under investigation for serious corruption so this was a good way to deflect attention. Her replacement, Temer, who is prohibited from campaigning for corruption turned on her and opportunistically saw this as a way to seize power and deflect from the investigations. After all there is some immunity for some positions. Dilma even tried to give Lula a cabinet position to shield him from prosecutions just before being impeached.

All of this shows plenty of internal motivation for the internal dynamic, but when you look for reasons the US would want to overthrow the government things get to be quite the tenuous stretch. The conflicts with the US were largely rhetorical and the US simply does not have enough interests at stake yo care that much, and the result of the impeachment leaves utter chaos that they can't predictably assume will resolve to American interests.

There is not a shred of evidence of US involvement in this political upheaval, and it is an enormous one with the entire public involved, it's not like they can turn a few people they would have to have the majority of both houses in their pockets along with the unknown judge who will adjudicate it and also manage somehow to get Dilma to admit to an impeachable offense.

The likelihood that the US could cause all these conditions to be so is astronomically small, and that it could do so without a trace (which would infuriate neatly all Brazilians) even more so. And when all is said and done there is little to nothing to gain even if all things turn out the way the US wants while it's impossible to predict how it will play out given the enormous polarization and political chaos on Brazil.

There is indeed a class element to this but America does not have the capability of causing the combination of situations that resulted in this, nor the motive.

I do not find this outlandish because I disagree with it, I disagree with it because it is outlandish. And not all things I disagree with are so, this is just particularly obviously so.

izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 May, 2016 05:56 am
@Robert Gentel,
Whatever you say. I know better than to push the matter.
panzade
 
  4  
Reply Tue 17 May, 2016 07:06 am
@izzythepush,
That is an ominous post. The implication being that a discussion with Robert can lead to a "time-out".
dlowan
 
  2  
Reply Tue 17 May, 2016 08:14 am
@panzade,
Then it's a ridiculous implication.
0 Replies
 
Foofie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 May, 2016 10:23 am
I applaud you for your concern with the world.
0 Replies
 
Robert Gentel
 
  3  
Reply Tue 17 May, 2016 10:25 am
@izzythepush,
I mean, it's totally up to you if you want to pursue this line of inquiry, but if your implication is that you might somehow be punished for doing so that is not fair shade to cast my way. Never in the history of this site has anyone been punished for arguing with me, or even insulting or attacking me.
panzade
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 May, 2016 12:04 pm
@Robert Gentel,
I can vouch for that.
My discussions with Robert have always been civil.
Izzy's a good bloke but I imagine his ban for a period of time has put him on the defensive. There's no need for that.
panzade
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 May, 2016 12:38 pm
When I was a kid my dad was driving us to our summer cottage near Villa Gesel Argentina.
A cop pulled him over and my dad handed over his license with a bill tucked inside it.
That was the first time I saw la mordita(the bite or bribe)
Corruption in Latin America is so prevalent that it has reduced some countries to the status of third-world nations.
We left Argentina in 1960 because my father detested that system and wanted a chance to flourish in a country with less corruption.
The battle against corruption is what Brazil is dealing with, though I don't know who's on what side

The future of Latin America will be determined by this battle against corruption and "la mordita"
 

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