The upcoming Republican Party convention

As of July - Where Do We Stand?

1. The White House

After a barrage of bad news and negative press, President Bush has not surrendered the lead versus John Kerry. Of more immediate concern is a matter TCR previously addressed in the right track, wrong track poll which now has plunged into the 40's for right track. Traditionally that means the President is in trouble. Add to that the fact Kerry is on the lookout for the pre and post-convention bounce. If he gets it, he will blow past President Bush in the polls.

On the plus side for Bush, he is more engaging, more focused and more consistent than Kerry. On the other hand, if events in Iraq, the domestic terror front and the economy tank we would be in serious trouble. The good news is the economy is in full recovery, the Democrats just have not noticed as they continue to talk down the economy. On the terror war, events are unfolding - the hope is we will not pussyfoot around and real progress will be noticed in September - October of this year by the voters. Let's look at the 17 battleground states to see how we are doing.

Of the 17 states - Kerry leads in 12 with margins so tight that the slightest change would flip the electoral vote balance.

Kerry looks strong in Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Bush looks strong in Arizona, West Virginia, which leaves true toss-ups in Nevada, Minnesota, Iowa, Arkansas, Missouri, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maine, and Florida - in other words those states will probably determine the winner.

2. The Senate

Since we last looked, the U.S. Senate races have tightened everywhere and will be more dependent on Bush's success than first thought. In other words, a Kerry victory probably would come with a Senate shift to the Democrats.

A review of key states today reveals the following races by category:

Solid Democrat Illinois, Indiana, California, Wisconsin, Nevada, New York, Oregon, North Dakota, Vermont, Connecticut, Maryland
Solid Republican Utah, Kansas, Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Alabama
Lean Democrat Colorado, Washington
Lean Republican Missouri, Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania
Toss-up Louisiana, South Dakota, North Carolina, Florida, Oklahoma, Alaska

The U.S. Senate control for 2005 today is a toss up.

3. The U.S. House

With the success of artful redistricting there are few true competitive districts - this year it's estimated that less than 35 out 435 seats are in this category. It is important to see where the races are in the red state-blue state divide and the Bush impact on the races. With an inordinate number of GOP retirees in our districts, the majority is in danger. The key for survival is Texas and the six races (which TCR will focus on by individual races in forthcoming issues) that resulted from redistricting - a GOP sweep insures a majority, a split and we could be in some difficulty.

U.S. House control today leans to continued GOP control.


Dismal Poll Numbers for Key Statewide Republican Officials and Legislature

Following the recent unsuccessful special session on property tax relief and educational funding reforms, the Legislature's approval rating is in free-fall - just 22% of Texans in a recent Texas Poll approve of its performance. The good news here is that we will still be in charge after November, but the bad news is we are getting hit hard in the media and by the Democrats and have not done a good job of directly or indirectly through the state Republican Party to tell our good news story.

The Republican National Committee has proven one can be of substantial help in getting the message out, it's time the RPT does its job here.

It's also time for our key leaders to get together and develop a bold plan to achieve property tax relief and educational funding reform in a creatively conservative way that doesn't start and end with an increase in education funding. In fact, it should start with true accountability for spending the funds our schools get now. It's time to quit patching a system that's broken and instead to create a new way - the Texas way to do what needs to be done. The public will be supportive of bold leadership initiatives as they've proven over and over again.


Emerging New Divide in Politics
Spenders vs. the Tax Cutters and Spending Hawks

There is a new divide in our political culture - between not Republicans and Democrats but between the spenders and the tax cutters and spending hawks. This division finds party members in both camps. This divide is present in the U.S. Congress and the Texas Legislature.

The big argument in Washington and to a lesser extent in Austin is whether taxes are too high or about right versus those who want more taxes to spend. The other battle is whether government spending should continue to grow in an accelerated manner.

Many are asking what happened to the GOP of Ronald Reagan with his policy of lower taxes and smaller government? Many are asking why some GOP'ers in Texas want to increase overall education spending as part of the program to lower property taxes. Many are asking why the current rules called paygo, where any federal tax cut must be "paid" for by either raising other federal taxes or reducing other federal spending, but paygo doesn't seem to apply to existing entitlement programs. If paygo is not followed per current Senate rules, 60 votes are needed to keep the tax cuts from expiring. Given how the spenders vote, you know how impossible it is for 60 votes in this Senate and tax increases could be on the way.

It's simple - the system has broken (bring back Gramm-Rudman) - spending is seemingly on autopilot, up 43% in the last four years and with paygo the hard fought Bush tax cuts will be gone over the next few years.

If we let this happen, then really what does the GOP stand for anymore?


About Your Editor

Gary Polland is a long-time conservative and Republican spokesman, fund-raiser, and leader who recently completed three terms as the Harris County Republican Chairman. During his three terms, Gary was described as the most successful county Chairman in America by Human Events - The National Conservative Weekly. He is in his ninth year of editing a newsletter dealing with key conservative and Republican issues. The last three years he has edited Texas Conservative Review. Gary is a practicing attorney and strategic consultant and can be reached at... (edited)

> 9:30pm - Reagan elevated to Savior, Holy Trinity now referred to as The Quads

Daize Shayne is a white person?!

McGentrix wrote:

Daize Shayne is a white person?!

http://daizeshayne.com/

(reminder: even pretending to be this stupid calls into question all else you post...)

UFPJ SUES NYC OVER CENTRAL PARK,
PLANS FOR MARCH PAST GOP CONVENTION UNCHANGED

Rallying in Central Park is a right, not a privilege! United for Peace and
Justice filed a lawsuit today in New York State Supreme Court over New York
City's denial of the use of Central Park for a rally on August 29, after our
legal, permitted march past Madison Square Garden. We are seeking a court order
to allow the rally to proceed.

The lawsuit - UFPJ vs. New York City Mayor Bloomberg, Parks Commissioner Adrian
Benepe, Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly and the City of New York - asserts
that Central Park has traditionally served as a forum for free expression, and
that by denying us its use, New York City is violating our Constitutional rights
to free assembly.

The filing of this lawsuit means that we probably will not know the final
destination for our march until the very last minute. (Our assembly time and
location remain unchanged: Gather at 10:00AM at Seventh Avenue and 14th Street,
for a march beginning at noon. See http://www.unitedforpeace.org for a map and
directions.)

We've faced this situation before: It was just days before our massive February
15, 2003 antiwar protest that we were able to announce the details for our
event. Then, too, Mayor Bloomberg hoped that the uncertainty would keep people
away, but he failed miserably: Hundreds of thousands of you showed up for one of
the largest protests in New York City's history.

Those of you who are not in New York City may not be aware of how bizarre things
have gotten in recent days. On Monday, Mayor Bloomberg declared that protesting
is a "privilege" that can be taken away. Then yesterday, he held a press
conference with the NYC tourist bureau to announce special shopping and
restaurant discounts for protesters. We're not making this stuff up … read the
news articles at the bottom of this email.

So Mayor Bloomberg wants us to shop but not rally, and darkly hints that he
would rather we not protest at all.

All this comes after revelations in Monday's New York Times that the FBI has
been interrogating and intimidating activists around the country, in a
transparent attempt to scare them away from the Republican Convention protests.
A letter writer in today's Times responded, "I was going back and forth about
whether to come to New York to protest at the Republican convention. But since
I've learned that the F.B.I. has been deployed to intimidate protesters, I no
longer have any doubt about what to do. It is no longer just a matter of
political protest. It is a matter of defending our constitutional rights. I'm
coming to New York."


The best way for us to counter the efforts to stifle our protest is to do
everything we can in these next ten days to ensure the largest, broadest
possible turnout on August 29, when we will march past the site of the
Republican Convention to call for an end to the divisive and destructive
policies of the Bush Administration.

Make sure all your family members, friends, and coworkers know that our legal,
permitted march is going forward, no matter what happens in court.

Make sure they know that - whatever the tabloids and the TV news might say - we
are committed to a peaceful protest, one that kids, seniors, immigrants, and
people with disabilities can attend, and we will march in a spirit of
nonviolence.

Make sure they know that we are NOT marching to the West Side Highway, even if
we do not win our fight for Central Park.

Make sure they tell their friends about the protest, and that they join us at
10:00AM on Sunday, August 29 at Seventh Avenue and 14th Street in Manhattan, to
send a message so loud it cannot be ignored: We're sick of the lies, sick of the
greed, sickened by the war and the hate, and we want a change.

In solidarity,
United for Peace and Justice

-----------------------------------------------------------
Protest a "Privilege," Says NYC Mayor Bloomberg
by Glenn Thrush, New York Newsday
August 17th, 2004

Mayor Michael Bloomberg, already under fire for his tough stance against
anti-GOP protest groups, yesterday suggested that First Amendment rights of free
speech and free assembly are "privileges" that could be lost if abused.

Bloomberg, speaking to Republican National Convention volunteers in Manhattan,
was trying to downplay concerns that protesters will disrupt this month's
convention - when he began articulating a broader constitutional vision.

"People who avail themselves of the opportunity to express themselves ... they
will not abuse that privilege," he said at the John Jay College of Criminal
Justice. "Because if we start to abuse our privileges, then we lose them, and
nobody wants that."

The mayor's comments drew immediate criticism from protest groups and came amid
reports that federal agents and city police have been questioning activists,
monitoring Web sites and dropping in unannounced on organizational meetings.

"The right to protest is not nor has it ever been a privilege - it is a
constitutionally protected right that everybody in this country enjoys," said
Leslie Cagan, head of United for Peace and Justice, which has locked horns with
the city over its attempt to stage a 250,000-person protest in Central Park. "I
have no idea what he's talking about. I'm completely flabbergasted."

Bloomberg press secretary Ed Skyler said, "The mayor certainly did not mean to
imply that the First Amendment was in jeopardy here; nothing could be further
than the truth, as the convention will show."

The online dictionary, Law.com, defines a privilege as a "special benefit,
exemption from a duty, or immunity from penalty, given to a particular person, a
group or a class of people." A right, on the other hand, is defined as a "an
entitlement to something, such as ... freedoms of speech, press, religion,
assembly and petition," according to the online law dictionary.

City officials have granted permits for a 50,000-person protest in Central Park
and have offered Cagan's group a route that passes Madison Square Garden and
culminates on the West Side Highway, which the group accepted, then rejected.
The parties met yesterday but failed to reach a new agreement, Cagan said.

As Bloomberg arrived at John Jay yesterday, he was greeted by a now-familiar
contingent of off-duty police officers hectoring him for a raise. In previous
demonstrations, protesters were allowed within a few feet of the mayor.
Yesterday, they were ushered behind steel barricades 20 yards away.

"We're offending the mayor, and now we're being forced into pens," said Walter
Liddy, a Patrolmen's Benevolent Association official who led the protest.


N.Y. Mayor to Protesters: Go Shopping
by Michael Powell, The Washington Post
August 18th, 2004

Why worry about antiwar views, anarcho-syndicalist politics and "Dump Bush Now!"
placards when something serious is at stake -- like money?

The billionaire media mogul who happens to be New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg
has decided that if antiwar protesters are to descend on his city by the
hundreds of thousands for the Republican Convention, he may as well turn them
into shoppers.

So with just a hint of the sardonic, Hizzoner announced Tuesday a "Peaceful
Political Activists" visitor program modeled after the one offered to Republican
delegates.

Affix a "Peaceful Activist" button and a protester can claim a free glass of
Montepulciano wine with dinner at La Prima Donna, rent a room at the boutique
Dylan Hotel ($150 a night) and get dibs on discounted theater tickets. Perhaps
"42nd Street" for the Quakers from Kansas and "Naked Boys Singing" for the South
Beach set?Cowboy-booted Republicans and nose-ringed demonstrators: Everyone's
welcome.

If this sounds like marketing to Royalists and the Jacobins who would like to
behead them, that's pretty much the idea. "New York is the place to get your
message out, any message," Bloomberg says. "It's no fun to protest on an empty
stomach. So you might want to try a restaurant." Hizzoner offers another
example: "Or you might want to go shopping, maybe for another pair of sneakers
for the march."

The program to welcome radicals comes backed by the full marketing power of the
city's tourist wing, NYC & Co. Link to a Peaceful Political Activists home page
through www.nycvisit.com, (we're not kidding), and find pages of events and
every legally permitted demonstration. Stuck with time to kill between the
Planned Parenthood demonstration and the Ukuleles for Sanity Concert? Take the
"Bohemians and Beats of Greenwich Village" tour, walk by Stonewall Place (where
the Gay Liberation Movement took militant wing), and end up with another tour:
"Radical and Immigrant Heritage of the Lower East Side. Walk the streets where .
. . socialists, anarchists and free-thinkers gathered."

Some of the lists prepared by the tourism agency are tailored to political
tastes, but a certain ecumenicalism is assumed. The Museum of Sex offers the
same $5 discount to Republicans and protesters.

Few protesters seemed amused. They note that their people are more likely to
sleep on church floors, in hostels or on friends' couches than seek a $189
junior suite at the Avalon Hotel. Terrible cynics all, they assume Bloomberg
wants to divert attention from his politically unpopular battle with United for
Peace and Justice, the largest of the antiwar groups. Organizers want to end
their Aug. 29 antiwar march -- which is expected to draw a quarter-million or so
people -- in Central Park. But Bloomberg rejoins that so many feet would chew up
the grass.

He has offered the organizers, take it or leave it, a spot along the West Side
Highway. They've refused and called him "Mayor Meanie." Polls show about 80
percent of New Yorkers agree with the demonstrators.

Word about the discount plan no sooner leaks out on Tuesday than Beka
Economopoulos of Code Pink: Women for Peace ("Not an organization but a
phenomenon") dresses like a pink-swathed Statue of Liberty and stands outside
the midtown headquarters of NYC & Co. "If the mayor wants to welcome us, then he
should do more than get us tickets to a play," she shouts. "Give us a permit to
rally, not a discounted dinner we can't afford."

Upstairs, Bloomberg stands flanked by two former mayors, David Dinkins and Ed
Koch. Koch, a famous gourmand who is happiest when in conversation with almost
anyone, plans to walk the floor of the Republican Convention handing out palm
cards listing his 20 favorite restaurants. But he has a certain affection for
protesters, too -- he argued for so long with so many when he was mayor.

"I remember the good old days when I'd come into City Hall around 7:30 in the
morning and there would be two groups of protesters setting up their picket
lines, and another group that had slept overnight in the park," Koch says. "I
would walk over and say: 'Good morning, protesters!' ""And they'd respond:
'Hello, Mayor!' "