Kerry flatline, looks bad for the dems

The only thing the political press loves more than a scandal is a poll. And Newsweek this past weekend did no one any favors by releasing a poll immediately after the convention that many have interpreted as a measure of Kerry's post-convention bounce in popularity -- even though half of the poll was conducted before Kerry's speech accepting the nomination on Thursday night.

The Newsweek web exclusive published on Saturday, July 31, revealed what it termed a "baby bump," with Kerry's support growing by 4 percent over his pre-convention number. Fair enough, except that Newsweek, as others have already pointed out, conducted part of the poll on Thursday -- before Kerry's speech. While Newsweek did not classify its poll as "post-convention," it asserted the "bounce" to be the smallest in the history of the Newsweek poll. Most readers (and journalists), however, associate the term "bounce" with a post-convention boost. The misnomer was so obvious that even Republican commentator Joe Scarborough told Don Imus that he "wish[ed] Newsweek would run their poll throughout the weekend."

Unsurprisingly, many in the media leapt at the chance to handicap the horse race, without telling viewers and readers that half of the poll had been conducted during the convention and half after the convention. One of the worst cases was Chris Wallace's interview with Kerry and Edwards on "Fox News Sunday." Wallace asked the two candidates if they had seen the "first post-convention poll," citing the Newsweek poll. Kerry and Edwards promptly corrected Wallace, who proceeded to refer to the poll's "4 point bounce" as if the poll offered a legitimate measure of Kerry's post-convention support.

Then on Sunday the first poll conducted entirely after the convention was released. The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showed Kerry's support two points lower among likely voters than its prior poll. The storyline then formed that these two polls offered "mixed" indications of Kerry's post-convention bounce. As today's Pittsburgh Post Gazette put it, "two post-convention polls released yesterday -- one by Newsweek and the other by CNN/USA Today/Gallup -- offered mixed news for Kerry-Edwards team." The Dallas Morning News similarly erred, writing in its lede that "aides to [Senator Kerry] and President Bush began playing inside baseball with conflicting polls following the Democratic convention." The Dallas Morning News article notes Kerry's comments that the Newsweek poll was not entirely post-convention, but fails to assert this relevant fact with the weight of the newspaper's voice. Knowledgeable that politicians often spin poll results, the reader is left wondering whether Kerry is fudging or telling the truth.

Campaign Desk has seen this before: One half-baked story can set the tone for the entire press corps' coverage of an issue. Reporters and editors would be wise to check the ingredients before feeding readers and viewers this particular bit of fluff.

A message to my fellow journalists: check out media watch sites like campaigndesk.org, mediamatters.org and dailyhowler.com. It's good to see ourselves as others see us. I've been finding The Daily Howler's concept of a media "script," a story line that shapes coverage, often in the teeth of the evidence, particularly helpful in understanding cable news.

For example, last summer, when growth briefly broke into a gallop, cable news decided that the economy was booming. The gallop soon slowed to a trot, and then to a walk. But judging from the mail I recently got after writing about the slowing economy, the script never changed; many readers angrily insisted that my numbers disagreed with everything they had seen on TV.

If you really want to see cable news scripts in action, look at the coverage of the Democratic convention.

Commercial broadcast TV covered only one hour a night. We'll see whether the Republicans get equal treatment. C-Span, on the other hand, provided comprehensive, commentary-free coverage. But many people watched the convention on cable news channels - and what they saw was shaped by a script portraying Democrats as angry Bush-haters who disdain the military.

If that sounds like a script written by the Republicans, it is. As the movie "Outfoxed" makes clear, Fox News is for all practical purposes a G.O.P. propaganda agency. A now-famous poll showed that Fox viewers were more likely than those who get their news elsewhere to believe that evidence of Saddam-Qaeda links has been found, that W.M.D. had been located and that most of the world supported the Iraq war.

CNN used to be different, but Campaign Desk, which is run by The Columbia Journalism Review, concluded after reviewing convention coverage that CNN "has stooped to slavish imitation of Fox's most dubious ploys and policies." Seconds after John Kerry's speech, CNN gave Ed Gillespie, the Republican Party's chairman, the opportunity to bash the candidate. Will Terry McAuliffe be given the same opportunity right after President Bush speaks?

Commentators worked hard to spin scenes that didn't fit the script. Some simply saw what they wanted to see. On Fox, Michael Barone asserted that conventioneers cheered when Mr. Kerry criticized President Bush but were silent when he called for military strength. Check out the video clips at Media Matters; there was tumultuous cheering when Mr. Kerry talked about a strong America.

Another technique, pervasive on both Fox and CNN, was to echo Republican claims of an "extreme makeover" - the assertion that what viewers were seeing wasn't the true face of the party. (Apparently all those admirals, generals and decorated veterans were ringers.)

It will probably be easier to make a comparable case in New York, where the Republicans are expected to feature an array of moderate, pro-choice speakers and keep Rick Santorum and Tom DeLay under wraps. But in Boston, it took creativity to portray the delegates as being out of the mainstream. For example, Bill Schneider at CNN claimed that according to a New York Times/CBS News poll, 75 percent of the delegates favor "abortion on demand" - which exaggerated the poll's real finding, which is that 75 percent opposed stricter limits than we now have.

But the real power of a script is the way it can retroactively change the story about what happened.

On Thursday night, Mr. Kerry's speech was a palpable hit. A focus group organized by Frank Luntz, the Republican pollster, found it impressive and persuasive. Even pro-Bush commentators conceded, at first, that it had gone over well.

But a terrorism alert is already blotting out memories of last week. Although there is now a long history of alerts with remarkably convenient political timing, and Tom Ridge politicized the announcement by using the occasion to praise "the president's leadership in the war against terror," this one may be based on real information. Regardless, it gives the usual suspects a breathing space; once calm returns, don't be surprised if some of those same commentators begin describing the ineffective speech they expected (and hoped) to see, not the one they actually saw.

Luckily, in this age of the Internet it's possible to bypass the filter. At c-span.org, you can find transcripts and videos of all the speeches. I'd urge everyone to watch Mr. Kerry and others for yourself, and make your own judgment.

Luckily, in this age of the Internet it's possible to bypass the filter. At c-span.org, you can find transcripts and videos of all the speeches. I'd urge everyone to watch Mr. Kerry and others for yourself, and make your own judgment.

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Luckily, in this age of the Internet it's possible to bypass the filter. At c-span.org, you can find transcripts and videos of all the speeches. I'd urge everyone to watch Mr. Kerry and others for yourself, and make your own judgment.

Paul Krugman

It wasn't the news media, the convention just plain sucked.

Krugman's is an opinion peice.

Who said it was good to excellent? It SUCKED. I was really hoping to hear something new, and he totally blew it.

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Newsweek this past weekend did no one any favors by releasing a poll immediately after the convention that many have interpreted as a measure of Kerry's post-convention bounce in popularity -- even though half of the poll was conducted before Kerry's speech accepting the nomination on Thursday night.

The Newsweek web exclusive published on Saturday, July 31, revealed what it termed a "baby bump," with Kerry's support growing by 4 percent over his pre-convention number. Fair enough, except that Newsweek, as others have already pointed out, conducted part of the poll on Thursday -- before Kerry's speech. While Newsweek did not classify its poll as "post-convention," it asserted the "bounce" to be the smallest in the history of the Newsweek poll. Most readers (and journalists), however, associate the term "bounce" with a post-convention boost. The misnomer was so obvious that even Republican commentator Joe Scarborough told Don Imus that he "wish[ed] Newsweek would run their poll throughout the weekend."

The reality is that the undecided pool of voters is very small. Therefore the bounce would not be but 2-5% at the best. That is what Kerry recieved.