@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:
It seems to me that Rubio is the person to beat.
A lot of people agree with you but I think we are voting for the man this time, not the resume and not the policy positions. I dont think Rubio is seen as a guy who might be able to get anything done. And what was supposed to be his great appeal, his biography and immigration views, get less advantageous by the day as the mood of the nation shifts. The fact the journalists and D's like him the best is also a huge problem in the primary, though it might be good for him if he was the candidate.
Take note that in spite of generally good debate reviews and the journalists going out of their way to sell him Rubio is going nowhere. Cruz on the other hand is doing good things, and he has not even tried to turn on the jets yet. There is no way he does not have a trick or two in his pocket.
Quote:PPP's first look at the Republican Presidential race nationally in six weeks finds that things haven't actually changed all that much since early October. Donald Trump leads the field with 26%, to 19% for Ben Carson. Trump and Carson were first and second on our last poll as well at 27% and 17% respectively. Also getting solid amounts of support are Ted Cruz at 14% and Marco Rubio at 13%. No one else in the GOP field even gets more than 5%- Jeb Bush reaches that mark followed by Carly Fiorina and Mike Huckabee at 4%, Chris Christie and John Kasich at 3%, Rand Paul at 2%, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki at 1%, and Jim Gilmore, Bobby Jindal, and Rick Santorum all at less than 1%.
There's only one candidate in the whole field who can really claim momentum compared to a month ago: that's Ted Cruz. He's doubled his support from 7% in early October to its current 14% standing. He's also seen a net 9 point improvement in his favorability rating from +20 (50/30) a month ago to now +29 (55/26). Cruz is leading the field among voters who describe themselves as 'very conservative' with 29% to 24% for Trump and 22% for Carson. On a related note he's also ahead among self described Tea Partiers with 26% to 23% each for Carson and Trump. He is definitely the candidate headed in the right direction with the right at this time.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/11/gop-has-clear-top-4-clinton-dominant-for-dems-general-election-tight.html
Furthermore I expect that increasingly people will realize that Trump is a moderate, and some of the hard core conservatives will look for another options, which will be Cruz not Rubio. My guess is that this comes down to Cruz and Trump, and Trump takes it. Rubio maybe third depending upon whether he can take Carson or not.