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Is this the end game for Bolivarian Socialism in Venezuela

 
 
fbaezer
 
  2  
Reply Tue 1 May, 2018 11:06 am
@fbaezer,
I forgot to add that, while the Cuban economy slipped, Venezuelan economy crashed.
And Cuba had the Soviet subsidies for a couple of decades. Venezuela does not.
0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  2  
Reply Tue 1 May, 2018 11:10 am
Finally, Cuban opposition physically fled.
Venezuelan opposition fled politically. It proved incapable of putting disenchanted chavistas on its side. It's hard to imagine a more innefficient bunch.
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Brand X
 
  2  
Reply Tue 1 May, 2018 11:31 am
@georgeob1,
Venezuela has offered to sell India crude at a 30% discount if India agrees to pay for it with Venezuela's new crypto currency, called the 'Petro'. Will be interesting to see where this goes, in more ways than one.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 May, 2018 10:40 am
@fbaezer,
Thanks. I believe you have identified the key factors in the differences. Moreover, it suggests one of the likely stable outcomes for the unfolding Venezuela situation. The continuation of the slow process in Venezuela the past two years is itself very interesting. I believe the fast transition in Cuba was the most unusual one from an historical perspective

In addition in the cases of both Cuba and Venezuela the attainment of income equality was aided by the flight of moneyed people who had alternatives. South Florida has ample Cuban and (now) Venezuelan populations.
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 May, 2018 09:23 am
US Interventions in Latin America Continue and Intensify

Most US citizens don't realize it, but the US government has continued and even intensified its regime change agenda in Latin America and successfully helped reverse the so-called "pink tide" of left-of-center governments over the past ten years, says CEPR's Mark Weisbrot

Mark Weisbrot is Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan. He is author of the book Failed: What the "Experts" Got Wrong About the Global Economy (Oxford University Press, 2015), co-author, with Dean Baker, of Social Security: The Phony Crisis (University of Chicago Press, 2000), and has written numerous research papers on economic policy. He writes a column on economic and policy issues that is distributed to over 550 newspapers by the Tribune Content Agency. His opinion pieces have appeared in The Guardian, New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times and most major U.S. newspapers, as well as in Brazil's largest newspaper, Folha de Sao Paulo. He appears regularly on national and local television and radio programs. He is also president of Just Foreign Policy.

Ten years ago, most of Latin America was governed by center-left progressive or even leftist governments. For example, Cristina Fernandez in Argentina, Evo Morales in Bolivia, Rafael Correa in Ecuador, Fernando Lugo in Paraguay, Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, Manuel Zelaya in Honduras, and Lula da Silva in Brazil, just as an example. And Hugo Chavez, of course, in Venezuela. Since then, the so-called 'pink tide' has receded quite dramatically. Of these 10 governments that were left of center, only four remain. Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, Morales in Bolivia, Vazquez in Uruguay, and Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua. What happened? Some would argue that the U.S. played an important role in at least some of these changes.
Joining me to explore the role of the U.S. in Latin America is Mark Weisbrot. Mark is the co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, and is the author of the book "Failed: What the Experts Got Wrong About the Global Economy." He's also the president of the organization Just Foreign Policy. Thanks for being here again, Mark.
MARK WEISBROT: Thanks, Greg. Thanks for having me.
GREG WILPERT: So before we get into the role of the U.S. in Latin America, it's useful maybe to take a quick look at the impact that the leftist or center-left governments had on Latin America. What would you say were the main achievements or the main consequences of their governments in some of those countries?
MARK WEISBROT: Well, if you look at the region as a whole, the poverty rate dropped from 44 to 28 percent. That was from around 2003-2013. And that was after the two decades prior where poverty had actually increased, there was no progress at all. So that was a huge change, and it was accomplished in different countries in different ways. You know, there were large increases in public investment in Bolivia and Ecuador. In Brazil you had also some increase in public investment , big increases in the minimum wage. You know, every country did different things to help bring healthcare, and increase, in some countries, education, access to education. And there were a whole lot of reforms. Changes in macroeconomic policy. Getting rid of the IMF.
So there were a lot of different things that these governments did that prior governments were either unable or unwilling to do to improve people's living standards during a period of higher economic growth, which they also contributed to.
GREG WILPERT: And so how has Latin America changed now since then, when right-wing governments took over most of the continent?
MARK WEISBROT: Well, you have different things that have changed. I mean, one is, of course, they're implementing, as you would expect, right-wing reforms. Trying to cut pension system, the pension in Brazil, passing a constitutional amendment which, you know, even most economists in the world wouldn't support in Brazil, which prohibits the government from increasing spending beyond the rate of inflation. You have, you know, huge increases in utility prices in Argentina, laying off thousands of public sector workers. So everywhere where the right has come back, you do have some regressive changes.
GREG WILPERT: And so how has the U.S. contributed to these changes, and what goals would you say is the U.S. pursuing in the area?
MARK WEISBROT: Well, I think the U.S. has contributed in so many ways it would take an hour at least to summarize just some of this history. But I think the U.S. has been involved in, in most of these countries in various ways. Obviously in Venezuela they've been involved since the coup in 2002, and they tried to overthrow the government and tried to help people topple the government on several occasions there. In Brazil they supported the coup against Dilma, the parliamentary coup. So they didn't do that strongly, but they sent enough signals, for example, I've mentioned this before on this show, right as the House was voting to impeach Dilma without actually presenting a crime that she committed, the head of the Foreign Relations Committee from the Senate came and met with the number three official from the U.S. State Department, Tom Shannon. And then of course in August of that year, the Secretary of State John Kerry went down there and had a press conference with the Acting Foreign Minister Jose Serra. And they, of course, talked about how great relations with the U.S. were going to be before Dilma was actually removed from office. So these were ways of endorsing the coup.
And of course, the Department of Justice contributed to , the FBI, the Department of Justice contributed to the investigation that was instrumental in imprisoning Lula. Now, what they did in that investigation we don't know exactly, but we do know enough about it to know that it wasn't a neutral investigation. That is, the investigation did end up decapitating the Workers' Party for now, first helping get rid of Dilma, but more importantly, or more substantially, in terms of its contribution, they they helped put Lula in prison and prevent him from running for office.
And in other countries, in Paraguay, the U.S. helped in the consolidation of that parliamentary coup by organizing within the Organization of American States. In Honduras is probably the biggest role that the U.S. has played, both in consolidating the military coup in 2009, Hillary Clinton acknowledged her role in making sure that President Zelaya, the democratically elected president, would not return to office, and then more recently in November they helped consolidate the results of an election which pretty much all observers regarded as stolen.
Those are just a few of the examples. I mean, I guess I didn't even mention Argentina, where other branches of government were involved as well as the executive, but the executive cut off lending from multilateral development banks such as the Inter-American Development Bank, and tried to block loans at the World Bank, as well. And they restored everything as soon as the right-wing government was elected. And then there was Judge Griesa in New York, who took all of Argentina's, over 90 percent of Argentina's creditors, hostage in order to squeeze them so that the government would pay off the vulture funds. And this was very political, because he also lifted the injunction as soon as you had the right-wing government.
And I think this is very important, because obviously it's not necessarily a conspiracy of all these branches of government. The legislative branch was involved in this as well, in the United States. But they all have the same mindset, and they're all trying to get rid of these left governments, and they had a massive contribution. I mean, Argentina, that did contribute to the downfall of Cristina Kirchner. It contributed to balance of payments problems that they had there. So this was important, and it's totally ignored here in the United States.
GREG WILPERT: And then why was it ignored in the United States? I mean, what is it about U.S. media coverage, and why is there so little coverage of U.S. role and Latin America?
MARK WEISBROT: Well, you know, maybe you should interview some of the reporters who cover it, if they're willing to answer that question. I think that it's it's complicated in some ways, but in some ways it's very simple. First of all, for U.S. intervention anywhere in the world they have a kind of a smoking gun standard. So you know, we have in our criminal justice system the standard of beyond a reasonable doubt. But this is a much higher standard. So nothing is really discussed in terms of U.S. intervention unless it's really a smoking gun, where they're caught red-handed in a way that nobody could deny. And that almost never happens.
So in Venezuela, for example, in 2002 when you had the coup, you had State Department and CIA documents which documented the involvement of the United States. They helped fund and train the people who did the coup, and they made statements following the coup that they knew were false in order to help the coup consolidate itself, and they failed in that case. But you know, in Haiti in 2004, which I hadn't even mentioned, they took the president and put him on a rendition plane, and flew him out of the country. That was in broad daylight.
But in any case, they have a story that's not at all believable, and the press kind of accepts that and never looks back. Whenever they mentioned, you know, Chavez complained about the coup, and it was a major obvious source of bad relations with Venezuela, but they always just reported it as an allegation of a figure that they of course were discrediting at every turn.
So that's kind of how they report all of these. When they report the facts at all, they put it in the context that makes it look like there wasn't any intent, or any real effect of U.S. policy in the region. But mostly it's like reporting on Ukraine and never mentioning Russia, you know, it's as if the United States doesn't have any real influence in the Americas, and of course anybody knows they have an enormous influence.
GREG WILPERT: So what would you say are some of the implications for the foreseeable future of this U.S. policy towards Latin America?
MARK WEISBROT: Well, right now, of course, they're still involved. And you have intervention in Mexico, for example. U.S. officials have already said how worried they are that AMLO, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who is the frontrunner in the upcoming election in July. And he's probably going to win, but they're already trying to undermine him, lobbying accusations of Russia involvement, which is the new trend. Of course, completely unsubstantiated. In Venezuela they're doing something probably never done in the last 50 years, openly calling for a military coup, and actually a financial embargo they've put in place, and threatening even a worse embargo if they don't get rid of the current government. So that's, I think, a more aggressive form of intervention than you had even under the prior administrations.
And they're pretty open about it. And again, most of the media seems to treat it as a non-issue. In fact, that's actually a very important example, because there's an election going to take place in a couple of weeks, and the media is pretending that it's not really an election. But you have a credible opposition candidate who's leading in the polls, and they've reached agreement with the government on a set of procedures which are similar to almost all the other elections they've had for hte last 20 years, and a set of guarantees, which of course, the candidate Falcon won't recognize the election if they don't follow them. So you have a real contested election, but the U.S. government has decided they don't want that, and the hard-right opposition is in line with them, and so they're all pretending there's no election at all, because they're committed to a strategy of violence, of regime change.
GREG WILPERT: OK. We'll certainly continue to follow this, especially the U.S. role in Latin America. I was speaking to Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. Thanks again, Mark, for joining us today.

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georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Sat 12 May, 2018 04:08 pm
@edgarblythe,
Apart from the flimsy (and unsupported by facts) claim that leftist or socialist governments have reduced the poverty rates across South America, the Weisbrot remarks you posted above are devoid of specifics and decidedly contrary to direct observation. Lula da Silva was convicted of taking bribes from the government run oil company by a Brazilian court He and his protégé Dilma Roseff were voted out of office and replaced by a more conservative government which has started to restore the Brazilian economy. A similar democratic process in Argentina, Chile, and Columbia replaced the former left wing government of those countries and, though Argentina is not quite out of the woods yet, restored investment, economic productivity and public welfare in each.

The worst examples of economic devastation, poverty and tyranny on the continent are in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua - the very countries Weisbrot touted as models of socialist achievement.

Do you actually believe that nonsense?
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 12 May, 2018 08:42 pm
The approaching elections in Venezuela could well provoke some public resistance to the Maduro regime. Certainly 4-6 more years of poverty; the continued rationing of food by a government inclined to use it as a weapon; and the other artifacts of a Socialist tyranny that has managed to turn the continent's richest nation into a poverty stricken mess with runaway inflation - all by it's own idiotic economic policies - appears likely to stimulate some serious resistance.

The endurance of the Maduro regime has long perplexed me - much as has that of the Castro brothers in Cuba. Perhaps, as fbaezer has suggested, the Chavistas have successfully driven out or intimidated those who remember the past and have the ability to improve the situation
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