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Is this the end game for Bolivarian Socialism in Venezuela

 
 
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Aug, 2016 07:28 pm
@georgeob1,
Perhaps another batch of the "harmed ones" LOS "PERSEGUIDOS,P.E." and another US SEARCH BLOC" maybe needs to be available through plausible deniability.

It worked for Colombia.

Importing toilet paper? (we always used Charmin at SIBROS #2)[Hecho in Mexico los Procter & Gamble]. I knew tht oranges were from florida nd much beef and lamb came from Argentina and Chile.
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Sat 6 Aug, 2016 07:55 pm
@farmerman,
Well in most cases trade benefits both parties. Most Latin American countries have involved extended periods of corrupt governmentsd of both left and right persuasions. Uruguay might be an exception: it has enjoyed non authoritarian mildly social democrat goverrnment for a long time and has seen modest growth but stable continuous development. Boom and bust with alternations between left and right wing governments. appears to be the rule for Peru, Brasil and Argentina. I think the situation in Columbia where a functioning goverrnment and economy were beset by the FARC on one hand and the drug Mafia on the other was profoundly different from that in Venezuels, where even under previous regimes the oil riches were the narcotic that inhibited economic development in other areas.

The sad part now is the stupid authoritarian misgovernance of the Chavistas has deprived Venezuela of a major part of their petroleum producction (and in a down market as well) while at the same time destroying productive economic activity in other areas ranging from agriculture , to other industries and even distribition of imported consumer procucts as well. Truly a triumph of authoritarian stupidity. The same thing happened in the Soviet Union though the decay took a bit longer. Even therr the much reported Soviet cynical joke , "We pretend to work and they pretend to pay us" goes back to the 1950s.

I believe Venezuela is now a bit like Cuba. Our best bet is to wait until the citizenry wakes up and takes positive action to restore freedom and productive economic activity.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Thu 18 Aug, 2016 03:37 pm
News reports today indicate that Venezuela's foreign curency and gold reserves are now down to about $12 billion and that the country has a $1 Billion bond payment due this year, while PDVSA, the state oil company, has an approximatly $4,5 Billion debt payment due before year end (even as oil production continues to fall). Given the financing required for the imports of food and essential goods, it doesn't appear that the hapless Maduro government has more than a few months before that unfortunate country faces financial collapse and the end of its ability to finance imports of essential goods.

The current struggle with the political opposition involves a hotly contested ( by the Chavista government) effort to achieve a recall election before year's end . The government is working hard to stall this effort so that the Chavista government can remain in power, through its Vice President, even if Maduro is ousted in an eventual recall election ( which appears very likely - if an election is held at all.

The facts suggests Venezuela may not be able to avert a fairly complete financial collapse for more than a few months (i.e.before the year end). In short the curerent political struggle may not matter - it may be overtaken by the combined economic collapse and humanitarian disaster resulting from an inability to either add more debt or use reserves to pay for the imports required to sustain its people. Can revolution be far away?

0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Tue 30 Aug, 2016 03:48 pm
Preparations appear to be underway across Venezuela, both by the opposition and the Maduro government, for a protest March in Caracas on Sept. 1. Various marchers and protest groups have set out from other cities across Venezuela for the capital, and the remaining opposition leaders, who aren't in jail or government custody, are calling for a mass public protest to urge the Chavista controlled election commission to act on the pending recall election petition, and perhaps more .... Meanwhile the government is reportedly working to limit access to the capital city; has announced its intention (or at least ability) to jail protestors; and has prevented foreign journalists from entering the country to cover the event.

It's a volatile situation with a continuing collapse of economic activity; scarcity of food and vital consumer goods; and now hyperinflation of a near worthless currency. Maduro has delegated significant government power to Venezuelan Military officers, some of whom are reportedly directly involved in drug trafficking. Developing events may well challenge other elements of the Army; not either directly profiting from corruption or the drug trade or otherwise committed to "The Bolivarian revolution"; to make a choice on their loyalties.

Hard to tell what may happen, but increasingly it appears that the hapless Maruro hasn't a clue about how to even stabilize, much less restore the collapsed Venezuelan economy, and no plans other than force to deal with an aroused public.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 1 Sep, 2016 11:10 am
@georgeob1,
Early reports on today's demonstrations in Caracas suggest a large scale, possibly decisive event. I suspect a key question is how far the Military and security forces will go to protect the interests of a President who doesn't appear to have any plan other than the use of force.

The Maduro led "revolution" doesn't appear to have any coherent plan of political and economic action to ease the ongoing collapse of the Venezuelan economy, including the petroleum output of its chief (nearly only) source of income, the now government owned and operated PDVSA. Indeed it has successively killed all the industries and commercial activities that have, until revently, sustained what was once one of the richest countries in Latin America. - A sad but predictable end to yet asnother socialist revolution.
0 Replies
 
Leadfoot
 
  2  
Reply Thu 1 Sep, 2016 02:55 pm
Like watching a predictable train wreak in slow motion. Well, maybe not so slow.
It took the USSR over 70 years to collapse so Venezuela is moving right along...
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Thu 16 Feb, 2017 09:45 am
The economic situation in unfortunate Venezuela continues to get worse, Triple digit inflation and growing shortages of food, medicines, and basic consumer products have created a truly miserable situation for Venezulans, while the authoritarian repression of the political opposition continues from the Maduro government. The production of petroleum exports from the now thoroughly Chavista-corrupted national PDVSA corporation is declining and required deliveries to China to meet debt payments aren't being met. In these conditions the continued hold of the Maduro government appears increasingly precarious even despite the increasing military component of its ruling structure.

The Trump Administration is applying sanctions against individual members of the government suspected or known to be involved in the drugs trade while a wave of reaction to the last generation of populist left wing governments sweeps across much of South America.


How long can the "Bolivarian revolution" last under these circumstances?
camlok
 
  2  
Reply Thu 16 Feb, 2017 10:31 am
@georgeob1,
China and Vietnam are doing just fine.
0 Replies
 
Leadfoot
 
  2  
Reply Thu 16 Feb, 2017 07:15 pm
Yep, when we stopped pushing Vietnam, they (and China) adopted some free market principles before they crashed and burned.

We should get a hint from that and stop trying to force feed it to others
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Feb, 2017 10:52 am
@Leadfoot,
Both China and Vietnam are seeing rapid economic growth predcisely because they abandoned socialism. Both still involve nationally owned and operated industries and businesses, but in both it is the free market sectors of their economies that are growing and enrichind their populations.

The continuation of "Bolivarian socialism" in Venezuela has produced a continuing and growing economic disaster in what is in fact one of the most richly endowed (with natural resources) nations in the world.
Leadfoot
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Feb, 2017 04:52 pm
@georgeob1,
I agree. When I re-read my previous post I realized that my wording made it sound like I was saying that they crashed and burned after adopting free market principles.

What I meant was that they averted a crash & burn by adopting free markets. Sounds like it's almost too late to avoid it in Venezuela.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Feb, 2017 05:24 pm
@Leadfoot,
I agree. It appears the regime has paralyzed and/or thoroughly intimidated the opposition - an achievement that will likely make the ensuing colapse more painful (and perhaps bloody) than it might have been. The military is in charge of food distribution and, perhaps as a means of retaining its loyalty to the regime, is heavily involved in both general corruption and extorting money from drug exports. That's a bad combination and the outcome looks worse every day.
0 Replies
 
camlok
 
  0  
Reply Sat 4 Mar, 2017 08:17 pm
@georgeob1,
Such blatant dishonesty!

Both China and Vietnam are strict communist countries for a very good reason, because they both know the depravity of the USA in its terrorist actions aimed at overthrowing the numerous governments that it has for over a century. When terrorism fails the US simply invades.

Leadfoot
 
  1  
Reply Sat 4 Mar, 2017 09:36 pm
@camlok,
The US is not 'pure as the driven snow' and I'm not saying there is not a Communist regime in those countries, but they have had to adopt free market principles in the economy to survive.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sun 5 Mar, 2017 12:56 pm
@Leadfoot,
camlock has his facts backwards. Both Vietnam and China have prospered precisely because they have adopted capitalist economic policies and free markets. While socialism persisted they were locked in poverty.
camlok
 
  1  
Reply Sun 5 Mar, 2017 01:31 pm
@georgeob1,
China, officially the People's Republic of China (PRC), is a unitary sovereign state in East Asia. ... The state is governed by the Communist Party of China,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China

==================

Vietnam ... officially the Socialist Republic of Vietnam

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam

=============

Vietnam, which overcame the forty years of crippling US war crimes and terrorism, to become an absolute SE Asian dynamo.

Where would they be had they let the US bring them "democracy"? They would be a colony, with the arch typical US brutal, right wing dictatorship.

0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Mar, 2017 02:44 pm
Recent reports on the petroleum and reserve replenishment rates of the now thorughly nationalized and politicized PDVSA Petroleum company of Venezuela paint a grim picture of current and long term production. Current rates of production are 40% below pre Chavista raters and have fallen 20% in just the last year. Compounding this is a corrent fall in the development of new proven reserves. Chavista economic policies have already wiped out nearly all Venezuelan industry and production of consumer goods leaving the country nearly totally dependent on imported goods for which petroleum ehports have been nearly the sole source of revenue. Now the revenue stream inadequately financing these imports is drying up rapidly. Worse for Venezuela the financial reserves of both the Government and its captive oil company are inadequate to meet near-term payment obligations.

Collapse is not far away.
camlok
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Mar, 2017 02:52 pm
@georgeob1,
These "reports" from george come with him having his fingers firmly jammed in his ears. Kind of a mini version of the propagandist Voice of America.
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Mar, 2017 03:41 pm
@camlok,
so, it turns out that JTT has re-emerged from its chrysalis. A newer shinier insect.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 6 Mar, 2017 06:06 pm
@farmerman,
Nicely stated .... for a Geologist. Laughing
0 Replies
 
 

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