Is this the end game for Bolivarian Socialism in Venezuela

Today it's official. The masks have fallen.

Venezuela is a dictatorship.

You are clearly referring to today's announcement holding the elected legislature "in contempt" (of what was not specified). I think we agree that the dictatorial intentions of President Maduro (and, as well of his predecessor) have been visible for a very long time.

Other sources also report requests from the opposition for military intervention to restore constitutional powers. I find this odd in view of Maduro's rather clever (or perhaps merely necessary) use of military leaders to extend the reach of government, giving them both power and the opportunity to enrich themselves through increasingly widespread corruption - all with no evident limiting counterforces. In such circumstances it's hard to imagine anything useful coming from the current crop of Venezuelan military leaders. They have as much personal interest in the present game as does the former bus driver Maduro.

The many pronouncements issued by Maduro are almost comical - if one ignores the awful and sometimes tragic consequences for the Venezuelan people.

I read that even the Cuban indentured labor medical force, induced presumably by the prospect of a better life than at home, is headed back to their socialist paradise in Cuba. This exacerbates an already difficult situation arising from shortages of electrical power, medicines and other needed materials.

Frankly I find it amazing that the Venezuelan people have not already risen up to overthrow their government. Possibly as a result of the inequities of the past, there remain sufficient credulous beneficiaries of the "Bolivarian Revolution" to prevent or delay that.

I hope the United States continues to stay out of this mess. Perhaps we can ask the Canadians to help out when the economy shuts down completely. They are very polite, and their PM Justin Trudeau appears ( from his eulogy of Fidel) to be inspired by Socialist Dictators.

Todays news that the Venezuelan Supreme court has reversed its earlier suspension of the legislature, following directly on public criticism by the Chavista State Prosecutor, suggests the beginning of some divisions (or loss of confidence in the hapless Maduro) by the party elite (or conceivably a face-saving reversal on Maduro's part). Either way the ruling party appears to, at last, be losing self-confidence.

It's very hard not to conclude that the pressures attendant to the ongoing economic collapse will permit the current political situation to last much longer. However it has already continued much longer than I had previously thought possible. Clearly Venezuelans have found other ways to sustain their economic needs.

GM pulls out of Venezuela as government seizes plant. Looks (hopefully) like the end is near. How bad can it get?

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/gm-quits-crisis-hit-venezuela-after-officials-seize-plant/ar-BBA4iyQ?li=AA4Zjn&ocid=spartandhp

The Maduro government has been taking a now long series of actions to control prices and enforce distribution of essential goods all of which exacerbate the fundamental economic causes of the unfolding Venezuelan economic collapse. It would be a comedy if it weren't for the continuing suffering of the Venezuelan people that has resulted.

In addition the Chavista regime has been steadily killing PDVSTA, the now nationalized state oil company, once the goose that laid the golden eggs for the country. Oil production is now down about 25% and the physical infrastructure for oil production and distribution infrastructure is crumbling. Venezuelan petroleum loading ports are badly contaminated with heavy petroleum from neglected, leaking transfer pipes , coating the hulls of tankers and destination ports are refusing entry to them as a result.

Venezuelan hard currency reserves are almost depleted and default on bond maturities can't be far off.

I'm frankly amazed the Maduro government has hung on thus far. The approaching end could well be very violent. I fear that political and economic recovery from the forthcoming collapse collapse could take a very long time.

The continuing unraveling of the Bolivarian Revolution and the government of Venezuela continues, largely unnoticed by the media and a public likely a bit weary of the story. Recent reports note a cumulative 100 total deaths in public protests there, largely at the hands of "Bolivarist" militias and other irregular forces. The political discord attending Maduro's current efforts to convene a carefully selected "constituent assembly" to rewrite the country's constitution, enabling him to disestablish the publicly elected legislature, largely in the hands of his political opposition, appear to be bringing the political situation to an approaching crescendo. Meanwhile, so far unsubstianted, rumors, of efforts by Maduro to find political asylum in Russia, Cuba and even Panama abound.

At the same time the disintegration of the Venezuelan economy continues as indicated by accelerating inflation; growing shortages of goods and services; the continuing collapse of Venezuelan bond prices; decreasing petroleum production; and the accelerating flight of the countries most economically mobile citizens. Venezuela now leads all countries, including China in the numbers of pending requests for asylum in the U.SA.

All this has been on going, at an accelerating pace, for well over a year, at times appearing as though it will never end. However the end game appears inevitable, and probably not far away. Sadly, the longer it continues, the more lasting damage will be inflicted on the Venezuelan economy and social order, making the pain and dislocations of the subsequent recovery greater and the quality of the result more uncertain.

US terrorism in action yet again, georgeob1, but you know all this and still you pretend.

Do you people have any idea at all of the extent to which the U.S. has meddled in the economy and political life of Venezuela for decades? Do you have any idea of how much intentional confusion the U.S. has injected into the country in order to disarm both Venezuelans and YOU?

I'm well aware of the history of Venezuela from the earliest Spanish colonization, through the largely racial wars of the revolution under Simon Bolivar and the often corrupt operation of its government since the petroleum discoveries in the early 20th century and even the far worse corruption that accompanied the second "Bolivarian" revolution of Chavez. In terms of natural resources and land able to produce an abundance of food, minerals and wealth, Venezuela is one of the richest countries in the world. Despite that it can neither feed nor sustain its people. That requires some truly stupendous stupidity and tyranny. Sadly, Venezuela has both.

As far as U.S. intervention is concerned the only ones of which I am aware occurred in the late 19th & early 20th Centuries when the U.S, Intervened on Venezuela's behalf in a serious a Border Dispute with the UK over the Former Dutch Guyana territory; and later an attempt by Germany, Britain and Italy to use naval power to blockade the country and force the repayment of debts.

The U.S. became a major importer of Venezuelan petroleum during and after WWII, and the Venezuelan Oil company (then a private enterprise) grew to become a major refiner and distributor of petroleum products throughout the United States. The Bolivarian revolution has more or less destroyed nearly every industry in Venezuela including the formerly successful petroleum company. Now they can hardly meet their own internal needs and are in the hands of Chinese and Russian lenders who are gradually assuming ownership of their petroleum resources.

Venezuela's problems are entirely of domestic creation.

Hello George,

You're pretty much right here. The current situation is 100% traceable back to the purge of dissenting voices from the government following an assassination attempt on Chavez in 2002 or so (I could be off by a year or two). There simply wasn't anyone left in government to speak out against the party in power and there hasn't been for a long time. This leads to ever-corrupting grabs of power by those in charge, who are unchecked and realize it.

Oddly enough, we see very similar actions (the purging of anyone but 'loyalists') being promoted by right-wingers in our country today, who have been calling for years to 'root' leftists out of our gov't and bureaucracy. It's the encapsulation of what is meant by the 'deep state' slur thrown around by so many Trump acolytes. I'm sure you'll agree with me that this is in fact a very dangerous thing to posit and support, and one that would have inevitably the same result in our country in the long run.

Cycloptichorn

You guys are dead wrong with the current economical situation in Venezuela.

Venezuelans are just the collateral damage of the US attacks against Russia.

All this story started with Saddam Hussein. This Iraqi leader decided as a revenge against America for the invasion to their land and partition of Kuwait (one more time) from Iraqi main land, to stop using dollars for petroleum trade. This action should cause other Middle Eastern nations to copy the initiative.

The dollar is strong because circulates as the accepted currency worldwide. Having places in the world rejecting the dollar should cause the return of billions of dollars to the US.

It is known that the Bank of Reserve has printed trillions of dollars without the proper back up with gold and silver. This is to say, lots of current dollars are just pieces of paper without value.

The return of billions of dollars to the US should cause a huge deflation and should be the end of the US economy.

President Bush invented the fake news of arms of mass destruction in Iraq to take away Saddam Hussein. After his removal, Iraq is now the headquarter for dollars distribution in that zone of the planet.

A few years ago, Russia and China made an agreement to use their own currencies when they make trade between these two countries. The dollars were set apart. The idea is to promote the initiative of Saddam Hussein in that area. India, as an example, plays no games when is about currencies and doesn't accept other payments but gold.

When the fact of dollars without value was exposed and European economists started to denounce the faulty playing of the Bank of Reserve, the way to shut up their mouths was making the same with the Euro, this is to say, to print Euros without back up with gold and silver.

After this action, the economists run the voice that the dollar's back up is "confidence".

The response of the US against the Russia's initiative is to low down the price of oil and natural gas.

This action indeed caused lots of harm to the Russian economy, but smart Putin solved the problem by opening the frontiers to investors. Even American magazines published the recovering of Russian economy as outstanding and in a short period of months.

Russia balanced its budget.

The Congress in the US never congregates to balance the budget but solely "to increase the debt limit every six months", in other words, the US government is indeed in bankruptcy. And you claim that democracy is the best political system... lol

Still, the US keeps making pressure to maintain a cheap price for oil and natural gas because at the long run will affect the Russian economy anyways.

On the other hand, the smart US government, seduced other countries to "dollarize" their economies. This is to say, instead of using their own currency to adopt the dollar as theirs. This is a smart move because , lets say, El Salvador is backing up the dollars that they use with their own gold. Lol... what a bunch of stupids... No doubt that democracy is the best political system for corruption, even in the US congressmen sell the country to private companies and nobody do anything because the motto is defending democracy at all cost.

But, Venezuelan leaders don't buy this crap and they prefer to defend their goods rather than giving them to private companies and betray their country.

The current economy in Venezuela is caused by the US imposition of cheap price for oil and natural gas.

No matter who is in power in Venezuela, because as long as the oil and natural gas price is cheap, this country which leans on petroleum as their source of trade and income will suffer the consequences of a disastrous economy.

If you want to blame someone about the Venezuelan economy, you better direct your eyes and finger to Washington DC and the big oil corporations for manipulating the price of oil and natural gas in order to destroy oil producers nations economies.

This thread got badly derailed.

It did indeed.

I remain surprised at the tenacity of Maduro's government in the face of such widespread public opposition and the continuing collapse of the social/economic programs that apparently sustained its support in some quarters. However I recognize that they have now gone so far that that they all likely have a lot to lose in this game, and will struggle to hold on.

The recently extended sanctions by the U.S. government appear to be addressed at diminishing Venezuela's flexibility in financing its continuing operations, however they do little to cut off their usual sources, and nothing to limit the barter of the nations petroleum assets for cash from Russia and China. When all this ends I fear the Venezuelans will discover that their government has sold their patrimony merely to sustain itself for another year or so.

Ok, so you aren't aware of the extent to which the US has continually interfered with Venezuelan economics and life in general. You only comment on the history that the US is willing to allow you to know and not how the rest is propaganda and how much is ignored, purposefully, in the press.

The US has worked tirelessly to undermine and destroy their economy in order to "prove" to us and the world how "corrupt" and "undesirable" their socialism is. We are being used. You show how effective that has been.

Two sources that you might want to become familiar with would be Mark Weisbrot of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, and the reporting of American lawyer, Eva Golinger.

Months go by and the Maduro regime in Venezuela hangs on, despite the continuing misery of it people; the continuing collapse of its economy; and the increasing authoritarian tyranny of its government. It all has ceased to be news, despite the oppression and suffering involved..

Yeah. People can get used to anything if they do it long enough - even hanging.

The Russian and neighboring people endured the oppression of the Soviet Union for three generations, before it collapsed, mostly as a result of its own internal contradictions, and also due to the corrosive (to their system) effect of the examples in competing states based on individual freedom and pluralism.

The Communist regimes, imposed on the Eastern European States at the end of WWII, collapsed immediately on the removal of the threat of Soviet intervention. They endured for only weeks after it was removed.

I guess Venezuela will be somewhere in between. It's endurance has so far defied my expectations.

Over the past six months ( since Oct 2017) Venezuelan petroleum production has suffered an accelerating decline. Production dropped a total of 5% between April 2017 and September of that year. Since then it has undergone an accelerating drop, amounting to almost one-third of its April 2017 production. There are many factors involved here. Most appear to involve the growing effects of poor maintenance of facilities and the high turnover of staff at the national Oil company (PDVSTA), as long term employees underwent wholesale replacements by political party loyalists.

Petroleum exports amount to 95% of Venezuela's total income from trade, so this decline factors directly into the nation's income and ability to purchase from abroad the consumer goods and foodstuffs it formerly produced itself.

Many are forecasting the imminent collapse of the Maduro government as a near term result. However, at the same time, the Bolivarian government appears to be in the process of rewriting the nation's constitution, replacing the former democratic legislature with one elected by socialist party cells, sponsored by the regime ..... all as exists today in Cuba. Perhaps the question for Venezuela has become one involving (1) a race between Maduro's efforts to create a sufficiently strong authoritarian one party, Cuban-style state , strong enough to withstand growing public disapproval, and (2) the ongoing collapse of the Venezuelan economy and - importantly - the only remaining source of income that has so far enabled the government to compensate for it.

I'm not at all confident of my ability to predict the outcome here. There could be a public uprising sufficiently strong to overthrow the "Bolivarian" government. Alternatively there could be an overthrow of Maduro's government from within, followed by uncertain efforts to restore the existing regime; or even the successful creation of a Cuban-style state sufficiently strong so as to preserve order and authoritarian control amidst growing poverty and continuing economic collapse.

The Cuban regime managed to survive after the end of the Soviet subsidies that had sustained it for several decades. With sufficient authoritarian control, the Venezuelan regime may also survive the ongoing collapse of its economy and that of its only source of export income.

I'm always amazed at the ability of these authoritarian regimes to survive. I suspect that it is only due to humans' incredible resourcefulness and the black/grey market capitalism going on that keeps them afloat.

Wish there were more 'Live free or die' revolutionaries in the world.

I think there is one crucial difference between the Cuban and Venezuelan regimes.
The Cuban regime became authoritarian rather quickly, and moved fast into a more egalitarian society, while the economy faded into one of scarcity 6-7 years after the triumph of the Revolution. This means Cubans are able to deal more efficiently with severe scarcity, in both political and social terms.
The Venezuelan regime was formally democratic for a long time, it still has opposition parties. Income inequality was diminished, but not as throughly as in Cuba. Socio-political control is not as effective. The consequence is chaos, both in economic terms (true hunger) and in terms of violence and control.
Cuba became a police State; Venezuela, a dictatorship held barely in place by the military. A much worse situation.