There has been some speculation and reports in European news sources that OBL has indeed been caught.
It's hard to know what the truth is. Saddam was captured by the Kurds and held until we could bring him up from that hole. It was a nice PR moment but the truth behind it never did get revealed.
Look for a July surprise and it could very well be OBL although at this point is capture isn't as meaningful had it been done 3 years ago. The Bush administration may have overplayed their hand on this one.
We shall see, but if OBL shows up in July or Oct I think we will know the answer.