9
   

Is the world being destroyed?

 
 
maxdancona
 
  0  
Reply Wed 16 Jun, 2021 12:31 pm
Let's separate Doomsday predictions from actual challenges.

Doomsday scenarios seem to be part of human psychology, for the past 2,000 years (that we know of) people have been predicting the end of the world, usually as part of a "morality play" (humans acted wrong and the world was destroyed because of their sins).

We as a species have now reached the point where we can manage global crises. In the past, when there was a global pandemic, lots of people died with little that humans could do about it. Now we know about viruses, have global public health campaigns and develop vaccines.

Humans should should be talking about fertilizer, and conservation and managing our resources (in my opinion... clean, storable energy is the greatest challenge we have).

But these doomsday predictions in 2021 are much the same as they were in 1980, and 1500, and 1000, and 500 BC.

There is something psychologically appealing to predicting the end of civilization.
0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  1  
Reply Wed 16 Jun, 2021 02:09 pm
Quote:
When we use lithium and phosphorus.... it doesn't disappear from the Earth.

As the easier methods of obtaining these minerals end because of scarcity, other more expensive methods must be developed. Lithium can be extracted from batteries and recycled and new sources have been discovered but whether we can meet the expected growth in demand depends on clear thinking, careful planning, and international cooperation.
Quote:
Peak phosphorus does not mean that phosphorus will disappear, rather that the reserves with mineable high concentrations are depleting. Instead, we are increasing the background concentrations of phosphorus and adding it to the ocean floor. More sustainable phosphorus use requires a greater appreciation and understanding of the many organisms that make up soils — and the part they play in phosphorus distribution — or we may no longer be able to feed the world at an affordable price.

discover

Lithium, Cobalt, and Rare Earths





maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Wed 16 Jun, 2021 02:20 pm
@hightor,
This is the difference between doomsday prediction and legitimate concern over resources. I have no problem with calls for conservation. I do have a problem with people predicting (for the umpteenth time) that civilization is about to collapse.

I did some reading about peak phosphous. First of all, most reputable scientists seem to dispute the most dire predictions (that we reach peak in 2030). This seems to be an outcry over exactly the political groups from which you would expect such an outcry. This doesn't mean that it isn't a legitimate issue... except that most non-biased scientists don't seem to take it very seriously.

My point is that even if your point about peak phosphorus and lithium are correct we are taking about rising prices and perhaps problems for certain segments of the world economy. You can make a social justice issues (it is third word farmers that will be hit hardest) and that it unfair,

We aren't talking about the end of civilzation
hightor
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Jun, 2021 02:49 am
@maxdancona,
Quote:
I do have a problem with people predicting (for the umpteenth time) that civilization is about to collapse.

Why? What's wrong with warning people that, analyzing human behavior and economic trends, a catastrophe likely lurks at some time in the future? You seem to think it's the same thing as prophet warning the Hebrews about the wrath of Jehovah or something. I think it's more similar to the campaign against nuclear weapons, the warnings about ozone depletion, and the (apparently failed) effort to head off climate change.
Quote:
We aren't talking about the end of civilzation

If we're not, we should be. "Civilization" depends on a number of carefully balanced factors, one of which is the global climate, one of which is the global economy (there are others). Disturbing trends in any of these need to be publicized or we won't take the measures needed to protect our position on the precarious perch we've attained.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Jun, 2021 04:51 am
@hightor,
Quote:
You seem to think it's the same thing as prophet warning the Hebrews about the wrath of Jehovah or something. I think it's more similar to the campaign against nuclear weapons


Yes! I think the psychology is the same. Human beings are wired to respond to doomsday predictions. It made the biblical prophets famous (people clearly bought what they were saying). It is still selling books today.
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  0  
Reply Thu 17 Jun, 2021 04:59 am
@hightor,
I belive in human progress. And I believe in science. They are closely linked.

1. I agree that global climate change is a serious problem that needs to be addressed. I even agree that we aren't responding fast enough to avoid the worst of it.

2. Global Climate change is supported by real science (as opposed to alarmists on the internet), It is being addressed and studied by the scientific community. Some of the dire predictions of climate change you find in the political left are rather exagerrated, but that is another issue.

3. The predictions that "Peak Phosphorus" or random NNR shortages are about to doom society is not accepted by the scientific community (in fact it is dismissed by real scientists). It is a good thing to be able to distinguish this political propadanda from real science.

4. The Ozone hole is a success story for the human race. It should be celebrated as a time when humans listened to scientists, made tough economic decisions, passed laws and fixed a global problem.

5. I want to reiterate the incredible progress made by the human race. As a planet we are more productive, we live twice as long, we have less slavery more rights more democracy less war more food security than ever before in history.

Failing to note this is ridiculous.

6) I am asking for balance here. Yes, we have real challenges-- particularly nuclear weapons and global climate change being the significant ones.

I am not cowering for my life. I am raising children, investing in education. The hardest thing to predict is the future (as Yogi Berra noted). But, I have no reason to believe that my great-great-great grandchildren won't be living lives that are as least as good as mine is. And given the current trend in medical advances, I might even be around to ask them.
hightor
 
  2  
Reply Thu 17 Jun, 2021 06:29 am
@maxdancona,
Quote:
It is a good thing to be able to distinguish this political propadanda from real science.

Warning people now about the potential hazards we might face in 30 - 50 years isn't automatically "political propaganda". Real scientists defended tobacco use, questioned climate change, and formulated and promoted oxycontin, too. To downplay the danger of emerging trends is more political than simply bringing the issues to public attention.
Quote:
I want to reiterate the incredible progress made by the human race. As a planet we are more productive, we live twice as long, we have less slavery more rights more democracy less war more food security than ever before in history.

You keep parading this — while no one is denying it. But don't overlook the clouds on the horizon. Refugees, for instance — 65 million, the highest number since WWII. The rise of right-wing populism threatens the liberal democratic consensus which has held sway in the West for some 70 years. The food security that we presently enjoy is based on monocropping with high fertilizer and pesticide use, both of which pose threats to environmental health and agriculture in general is threatened by the loss of farmland due to climate change. Have you looked at the drought conditions in the western USA this year? We need to face these challenges, not just crow about how great we think we are.
Quote:

I am not cowering for my life.

No one is suggesting that you should.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Jun, 2021 06:56 am
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:
2. Global Climate change is supported by real science (as opposed to alarmists on the internet), It is being addressed and studied by the scientific community. Some of the dire predictions of climate change you find in the political left are rather exagerrated, but that is another issue.
The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the IPCC are often called by conservatives and right-wingers as being - minimum - to be exaggerating.
Although the (German) PIK is a government-funded research institute, it's not political, neither left nor centrist nor right. (PIK collaborated with the European Institute of Innovation and Technology to found Climate-KIC [Knowledge and Innovation Community].)
maxdancona
 
  0  
Reply Thu 17 Jun, 2021 07:00 am
@hightor,
Quote:
Real scientists defended tobacco use, questioned climate change, and formulated and promoted o


This anti-science rhetoric is annoying and unhelpful.

1. The scientific establishment first found the links between tabacco and cancer, and never "defended tabacco use" since.

2. The scientific establishment discovered climate change, went through the proper period of investigation, and then came out unequicably to state that climate change was real.

3. I don't even know what your charge that "real scientists promoted oxycontin" even means. The drug is still appropriate for use in pain management.

Either you trust science, or you don't. If you are going to attack science as unreliable, then you can't use it to base your convictions about climate change.

Pick a side. Do you believe science or not?
Walter Hinteler
 
  3  
Reply Thu 17 Jun, 2021 07:01 am
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:
And given the current trend in medical advances, I might even be around to ask them.
Ageing process is unstoppable, finds unprecedented study
Quote:
Immortality and everlasting youth are the stuff of myths, according to new research which may finally end the eternal debate about whether we can live for ever.

Backed by governments, business, academics and investors in an industry worth $110bn (£82.5bn) – and estimated to be worth $610bn by 2025 – scientists have spent decades attempting to harness the power of genomics and artificial intelligence to find a way to prevent or even reverse ageing.

But an unprecedented study has now confirmed that we probably cannot slow the rate at which we get older because of biological constraints.

The study, by an international collaboration of scientists from 14 countries and including experts from the University of Oxford, set out to test the “invariant rate of ageing” hypothesis, which says that a species has a relatively fixed rate of ageing from adulthood.

“Our findings support the theory that, rather than slowing down death, more people are living much longer due to a reduction in mortality at younger ages,” said José Manuel Aburto from Oxford’s Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, who analysed age-specific birth and death data spanning centuries and continents.

“We compared birth and death data from humans and non-human primates and found this general pattern of mortality was the same in all of them,” said Aburto. “This suggests that biological, rather than environmental factors, ultimately control longevity.

“The statistics confirmed, individuals live longer as health and living conditions improve which leads to increasing longevity across an entire population. Nevertheless, a steep rise in death rates, as years advance into old age, is clear to see in all species.”

The debate over how much longer we can live has divided the academic community for decades, with the search for extended life and health particularly active in the UK, where at least 260 companies, 250 investors, 10 non-profits, and 10 research labs are using the most advanced technologies.

The UK government has even prioritised the separate sectors of AI and longevity by including both of them in the four industrial strategy grand challenges, which aim to put Britain at the forefront of the industries of the future.

But what has been missing from the debate is research comparing lifespans of multiple animal populations with humans, to work out what is driving mortality.

This study plugs that gap, said Aburto. “This extraordinarily diverse collection of data enabled us to compare mortality differences both within and between species.”

David Gems, a professor of biogerontology at UCL’s Institute of Healthy Ageing, said that the summary of the report suggested the research was “a very high-powered study proving something contentious and surely right”.

All the datasets examined by Aburto’s teams revealed the same general pattern of mortality: a high risk of death in infancy which rapidly declines in the immature and teenage years, remains low until early adulthood, and then continually rises in advancing age.

“Our findings confirm that, in historical populations, life expectancy was low because many people died young,” said Aburto. “But as medical, social, and environmental improvements continued, life expectancy increased.

“More and more people get to live much longer now. However, the trajectory towards death in old age has not changed,” he added. “This study suggests evolutionary biology trumps everything and, so far, medical advances have been unable to beat these biological constraints.”


0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Jun, 2021 07:02 am
@Walter Hinteler,
I accept the science, Walter. The IPCC certainly has my respect. I don't know very much about the PIK.

0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Jun, 2021 07:06 am
There is a huge difference between a university department studying something and a fossil fuel company paying for research.

One cannot trust “science” if said science is in the pocket of big business and only publishes findings that suit its sponsors.

With all science, look at the money, and if there is an enormous vested interest in play then treat such findings with a pinch of salt.

That’s not anti science it’s anti politicisation of science and rent a quotes.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Jun, 2021 07:08 am
@hightor,
Hightor,

Your argument seems to be; things seem good now, but there is doom (doom, I tell you)... dooooom "on the horizon".

Read the Prophet Isaiah. Read "The Late Great Planet Earth" from the 1970s. Read Nostradamus or the pre-columbian Maya steele. They all tell the same story.

Quote:
The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate...


This is from "The Population Bomb" written in the 1960s by Paul Ehrlich. It was a best-seller.

For people with a certain type of psychology; doom is always on the horizon. It has been for more than 10,000 years.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Jun, 2021 07:20 am
@izzythepush,
I agree with Izzy, with a big caveat.

It makes sense to accept legitimate peer-reviewed and repeatable science that is accepted by the scientific community. It makes sense to reject corporate funded "science". That is why I use the term "scientific community" quite a bit. There is a peer review process and strong scientific community which includes academic and research institutions.

However, if you are basing your judgement on whether the scientific findings fit your political narratives then science is useless. The same scientific community that supports global warming also supports the safety of genetically modified foods.

For people to invoke "science" on one yet reject the science on the other is silly.

Either you accept the scientific community as a legitimate institution or you don't. It isn't valid to pick and choose based on your ideological beliefs.

If scientific findings never challenge your ideological beliefs, you are doing science wrong. What's the point of doing research if you already know the answer.
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Thu 17 Jun, 2021 07:41 am
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:
The same scientific community that supports global warming also supports the safety of genetically modified foods.
This is new to me, perhaps only because these two topics are two completely different areas of science here.
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Jun, 2021 07:43 am
@Walter Hinteler,
They are everywhere, except for certain people’s imaginings.
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  2  
Reply Thu 17 Jun, 2021 07:44 am
@izzythepush,
My thought exactly.
izzythepush
 
  2  
Reply Thu 17 Jun, 2021 07:47 am
@edgarblythe,
It’s not exactly a radical concept to say follow the money.

And money, not the environment, nor science, trumps everything.
maxdancona
 
  0  
Reply Thu 17 Jun, 2021 07:50 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter, can you give me an example of a scientific finding that you accept as legitimate that doesn't fit nicely with your preexisting ideological beliefs?

I know neither Izzy nor Edgar can. And that is my point. If all this scientific research is just there to confirm what you already know to be true, then why are we spending so much money on it?

If we are just going to go with a political narrative anyway, we could buy Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, and Bernie Sanders and a dozen Rachel Maddowses for a mere fraction of the cost of CERN.
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Jun, 2021 07:55 am
@izzythepush,
izzythepush wrote:

It’s not exactly a radical concept to say follow the money.

And money, not the environment, nor science, trumps everything.

If a study seems going not to their liking they often just kill it.
 

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