Bernie's In

@cicerone imposter,

I hate it when they call early. Just keeping score.

0 Replies

@parados,

This isn't my first rodeo.

1 Reply

@Lash,

Exit polling is conducted by pollsters asking people who they voted for.

1 Reply

@parados,

While you're looking for things to say, explain the electoral process....

Meanwhile, Bern 52% - HRC 48%

1 Reply

@Lash,

Lash wrote:

Updated by the minute - exit polling results.

Did you make a mistake, Lash? Do you expect your students to act the way you do when you correct their mistakes?

1 Reply

@parados,

I'm enough of a minority around here already.

I'm not going to add being the only person who admits error.

After you and the ilksters.

Meanwhile, Bern's holding at 52% to 48% with 40% reporting.

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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChkhRJCUoAEXeo7.jpg:large

Just FYI: Hillary Clinton can't even pay for a crowd like this. Bernie has overflow who he goes out to speak to.

He's going to be the next president.

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EXIT POLLS SHOW BIG BERNIE SANDERS LEAD IN INDIANA!!! (56-44%)
Source: The Huffington Post 6 minutes ago

Exit polls obtained by the Huffington Post have Bernie Sanders up by 12 points over Hillary Clinton, 56-44. Exit polls, of course, can often miss the mark by wide margins, but if they bear out, the results would suggest that the democratic’s popularity with voters hasn’t faded even as his path to the presidential nomination has narrowed.

Early returns, meanwhile, have Clinton pacing slightly ahead, but you can follow along in real time here. Indiana’s primary was favorable to Sanders in a number of ways. The state holds an open primary, which means voters unaffiliated with either party could participate. Sanders has struggled in closed primaries, where only registered Democrats could cast a ballot.

Indiana sends 83 pledged delegates and nine superdelegates to the Democratic convention this summer. The pledged delegates will be awarded to the candidates proportionally. The handful of polls conducted in Indiana last month suggested Clinton had a small lead.

Sanders spent nearly $2 million on advertisements in Indiana, compared with nothing by Clinton, in the hopes of regaining some of the momentum he lost with last week’s defeats in Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Maryland and Delaware. (He won Rhode Island.)

Read more: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bernie-sanders-indiana_us_572908f5e4b096e9f08f7955

And California is beginning to Bern, too!

2 Replies

@bobsal u1553115,

I've been watching the results change for an hour!! hahaha
Wonderful.

California, here we come!!!

1 Reply

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChkyJKXVEAAPDRF.jpg:medium

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@bobsal u1553115,

bobsal u1553115 wrote:

Source: The Huffington Post 6 minutes ago

The handful of polls conducted in Indiana last month suggested Clinton had a small lead.

Huffington Post must have their own polls . NPR and fivethirtyeight thought the polls said it could be Mr. Sanders by a slim margin - which was correct. They thought Mrs. Clinton's very vocal support for Planned Parenthood would damage her in Indiana which is about as white and conservative as America can get (especially white).

1 Reply

http://firebrandleft.com/university-100-accuracy-record-predicts-bernie-sanders-will-americas-next-president/

University with 100% accuracy says Sanders is next president.

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All the polls appear to have been wrong about Bernie winning Indiana!!

This is evidence that the national shift has finally arrived.

Hillary and Trump were expected to win Indiana; Hillary by about 6%.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-02/who-will-win-indiana-five-views-point-to-trump-clinton-victories

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/indiana-democratic/

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@ehBeth,

We'll have good leadership with either Hillary or Bernie. But we have to turn out the vote and change Congress, too. We'll get the Senate back this election but it'll take two or three cycles to get the House.

How many parties does Canada have? Are runoffs required if no candidate gets 51% or better?

1 Reply

@Lash,

I think Hillary will get it, but I'm backing Bernie all the way to Philly. Bernie already has Hillary 'evolving' on issues and we need her to embrace more change by June.

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@bobsal u1553115,

We have different numbers of parties in almost every provincial and national election. No runoffs so we sometimes get my personal favourite (seriously), the minority government where the party with the most number of seats is the ruling party - but each issue/piece of legislation has to be negotiated. It's when the most seems to happen to move things forward.

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http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/03/bernie-sanders-wins-indiana-democratic-primary?CMP=fb_us
More excitement over Bernie surprising the polls!!

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Quote:

Win Is Not Likely To Help Sanders

The Democratic race remains fundamentally unchanged after tonight’s win by Sanders. Yes, his victory was somewhat surprising, given that all of the polls had Clinton winning and by an average of 7 percentage points. And yes, Sanders has promised to fight on in the primary until perhaps the convention. The problem for the Sanders campaign remains delegate math and demographics.

Right now, Sanders looks like he’ll earn about five to 10 more delegates than Clinton in Indiana. That means Clinton will have an elected delegate lead by the end of the evening of around 280 to 285 delegates. In order to catch Clinton in the elected delegate count, Sanders would need to win over 65 percent of the remaining elected delegates. That’s actually higher than it was before Indiana voted.

Perhaps as importantly, there’s not anything in the Indiana result that should make one think that Sanders has dramatically changed the result. According to a demographic model published last week by Nate, Sanders was expected to win the state of Indiana by 7 percentage points. That’s about the size of his lead right now. Indeed, you can look at the exit polls and see that Clinton is holding onto the demographic groups she usually wins. For instance, she is beating Sanders among black voters by 52 percentage points. That’s actually slightly better than she did among black voters in New York.

I know that some people will think tonight’s polling error in favor of Sanders could be predictive of errors to come. As I pointed out in a different post, it’s actually par for the course so far in this primary. It’s nothing like the Michigan polling error we saw earlier in the campaign. Sanders will need far larger polling errors going forward to have a shot at the nomination.

As I said at the top, Sanders will continue to fight on, and he will win votes. He looks like the favorite in the West Virginia primary, for example, which is coming up next. He’ll also do well in the remaining states in the middle of the country. Still, it looks like Clinton and Trump are going to be the nominees of their party.

source

1 Reply

@revelette2,

Where did that excerpt come from, Rev?

3 Replies

@snood,

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/indiana-primary-presidential-election-2016/
Go down to the third writer, Harry Enten. There it is.

1 Reply

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