12
   

Second Little Ice Age

 
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Feb, 2015 11:56 pm
@giujohn,
giujohn wrote:
... over 31,000 scientists signing the petition ...
That certainly is the the majority of all climatologists.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 Feb, 2015 03:23 am
@rosborne979,
Thanks, Roswell--that Guijohn seems to be an arrogant s.o.b., and needn't expect to be taken seriously if he won't present evidence. I named the events to which i referred.

I have a problem with the chart you present, though, and that's that it doesn't seem to indicate the Toba eruption event, which took place about 70,000 years ago, and which plunged the earth back into an "ice age" (a silly term, really) at a time when it ws coming out of one. Toba was a stratovolcano in what is now called Indonesia. There may have been a spate of eruptions which lead the the sudden and drastic cooling. The Toba Catastrophe Hypothesis proposes that the seeming human evolutionary bottleneck which dates to about that period has gotten more and more evidentiary confirmation over the years, and is now pretty well established. It can't ever be more than an hypothesis, because it can't be tested or falsified. However, in 1815, there was a prolonged period of volcanic eruptions in the southwest quadrant of the ring of fire (i.e., present day Indonesia) capped by the eruption of the stratovolcano Tambora, east of Java and Bali. The period of eruption had already caused poor harvests in the waning years of the Napoleonic Wars, which of course, caused their own disruptions.

The eruption of Tambora lead to what became known as the year without a summer in 1816. Crops failed in New England and Canada, where, because of stockpiles, famine was not a problem, but food prices shot up, and no surpluses were available to ship to Europe. Crops failed in Ireland, Wales and England, and some researchers put the death toll in Ireland at 100,000 (for much the same reasons that the crop failures of the 1840s were a disaster). Starving Welsh families took to the roads and flooded England, already barely able to cope with their own shortages--and no help to be expected from North American imports. Crop failures were general in Germany and Switzerland, and Swiss researchers have estimated that 200,000 people starved or died of famine diseases in central Europe. In Italy and Hungary, they had crop failures two years in a row--the immediate consequence of the Tambora eruption being brown or red snow, and temperatures low enough that most winter wheat plantings failed. The harvests in Switzerland and Germany failed in 1817, as well, leading to rioting and looting as the people became convinced that speculators were hoarding grain to drive up the prices, as had been the case in France in 1788, leading to the events which ended in the French revolution.

There were the same problems in China, and there, as in North America, snow fell in the fields in June of 1816. Snow fell on the island of Formosa (now called Taiwan), which at only 30 degrees north, is subtropical. Livestock all over the world died of starvation and famine diseases, too, as insufficient new grass grew in 1816 and 1817. Not only were grain prices elevated (goddamned capitalist!), but also the price of meat, butter and cheese.

The Toba event roughly 70,000 years ago was severe enough that there was an evolutionary bottleneck, and some scientists are now looking for evidence of volcanic activity about 30,000 to 35,000 years ago, when h. Neanderthalis disappeared and h.s.s. was reduced to a world-wide population of no more than 10,000 and possible as low as 1000 individuals, according to genetic studies by Durbin and Li at Harvard.

Maybe it's just that the resolution of that graph is not sufficient to show such events as Tamora, but i would think that an event like Toba would show up there.

Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Sun 22 Feb, 2015 03:30 am
Here's an interesting article of the so-called Petition Project from the Huffington post. Of the 30,000, 39 of them were climatologists, only one tenth of one percent have credentials in allied sciences.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 Feb, 2015 08:38 am
@Setanta,
A survey of 928 peer-reviewed abstracts on the subject 'global climate change' published between 1993 and 2003 shows that not a single paper rejected the consensus position that global warming is man caused. Source

97.1% of scientific papers expressing any position on climate change, published in peer-reviewed papers between 1991 and 2011 endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. Source
rosborne979
 
  2  
Reply Sun 22 Feb, 2015 11:27 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:
97.1% of scientific papers expressing any position on climate change, published in peer-reviewed papers between 1991 and 2011 endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. Source
That being the case, then someone should be able to quantify what percentage of contribution humans are making to the already warming climate. I have yet to find any consensus on the actual degree of contribution. Clearly this is not a black-and-white cause and effect since there are multiple contributors to what we already know is a very dynamic planetary climate. So an accurate answer to the question is NEVER going to be simply "humans are causing..." any accurate answer must relate human contribution to other contributing variables, even if it's just a ballpark estimate.

Do you know of, or can you locate any peer reviewed reference which specifies even a ballpark estimate of the degree of human contribution to the cycle? I'm completely open to changing my viewpoint on things if I can see some actual data which relates the various contributing factors.

Thanks.
0 Replies
 
jespah
 
  2  
Reply Sun 22 Feb, 2015 11:31 am
@gungasnake,
I'm curious about the FB groups you follow. Can you tell me their names (you can do this in PM if you'd prefer) if they aren't closed or secret? I like to go closer to the source when I can.

Many thanks! Smile
0 Replies
 
rosborne979
 
  3  
Reply Sun 22 Feb, 2015 11:45 am
@Setanta,
Setanta wrote:
I have a problem with the chart you present, though, and that's that it doesn't seem to indicate the Toba eruption event, which took place about 70,000 years ago, and which plunged the earth back into an "ice age" (a silly term, really) at a time when it ws coming out of one.

I know about Toba and Tambora, and I think you are right that the ice core graph I selected simply doesn't have the granularity to show the effects of those two events. But I intentionally selected a graph which shows the long-trend cycle going back several hundred thousand years. I suspect that the ice core data is a lot more granular, just not shown in that particular graphic. I'll have to search around to see if there are others.

Here's a slightly expanded graph, and there does seem to be a downward spike right around 74,000bp. But there are lots of downward spikes. So I wouldn't call this conclusive.

http://i187.photobucket.com/albums/x269/jmknapp/vostok_zps270a26e8.gif
Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Sun 22 Feb, 2015 03:26 pm
@rosborne979,
I just noticed that it says temperature and CO2. Volcanic eruptions can and have affected the average annual temperature because of the dust they loft into the upper atmosphere, and because they produce other (usually sulphur-based) gases which affect albedo. It's entirely possible that the ice-core samples would not pick up (at least not reigh away) the effects of either the Toba or the Tambora eruptions. I went into detail about the Tambora eruption's affect on the northern hemisphere to show how drastic such events may be, in terms of not just human life, but all plant and animal life. This was to highlight just how much more devastating Toba would have been.

Tambora was the fifth major eruption between 1812 and 1815. I wonder if there were a similar concatenation of eruptions when Toba went off. Something happened about 35,000 ybp, too. Homo Neanderthalis winked out (perhaps only surviving in the h.s.s. genome) and h.s.s. populations dropped drastically, as i mentioned above. The entire world population of h.s.s. was no more than 10,000 and may have been as few as 1,000, according to the crew at Harvard. I wouldn't try to overcomplcate it--that was during an interstadial, a warming period within the ice age. Perhaps the affect on h.n and h.s.s. was just the long grind of two heavy glaciations successively.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  3  
Reply Sun 22 Feb, 2015 03:32 pm
I would also like to say that i agree that climate change is happening--i mentioned the 8.2 kiloyear event, the 5.9 kiloyear event and the 4.2 kiloyear event to point up that there have been without a doubt continue to be great climate fluctuations. I do not, however, know that it's anthropogenic, and i don't see any of those who say it is producing convincing evidence that CO2 levels are a leading indicator rather than a following indicator. That question will need to be answered before anything convincing can be said about humankind's contribution of the climate change.
0 Replies
 
giujohn
 
  0  
Reply Sun 22 Feb, 2015 04:13 pm
@Setanta,
Quote:
Thanks, Roswell--that Guijohn seems to be an arrogant s.o.b., and needn't expect to be taken seriously if he won't present evidence. I named the events to which i referred.

I have a problem with the chart you present, though, and that's that it doesn't seem to indicate the Toba eruption event, which took place about 70,000 years ago, and which plunged the earth back into an "ice age" (a silly term, really) at a time when it ws coming out of one. Toba was a stratovolcano in what is now called Indonesia. There may have been a spate of eruptions which lead the the sudden and drastic cooling. The Toba Catastrophe Hypothesis proposes that the seeming human evolutionary bottleneck which dates to about that period has gotten more and more evidentiary confirmation over the years, and is now pretty well established.


If you think for 1 minute that I am obligated to teach you anything you are sadly mistaken. If you want to refute my info then do so with facts.

Also, you couldnt be more wrong on the subject of Toba. Scientisits have dialed back their assertions that it was responsible for the bottleneck. And every ice core chart I've seen clearly shows a cooling period slightly after Toba.
giujohn
 
  -2  
Reply Sun 22 Feb, 2015 04:18 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Quote:
A survey of 928 peer-reviewed abstracts on the subject 'global climate change' published between 1993 and 2003 shows that not a single paper rejected the consensus position that global warming is man caused.

97.1% of scientific papers expressing any position on climate change, published in peer-reviewed papers between 1991 and 2011 endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming
.



In refuting the remark that 97% of scientists accept man-made global warming, noted was the return of a much larger mailing by the IPPO which requested a two-question response. While 3,000 responses were returned, only seventy-seven were selected to calculate the 97% consensus figure of scientists who accept man-made global warming.
0 Replies
 
giujohn
 
  -1  
Reply Sun 22 Feb, 2015 04:28 pm
To those "chicken littles" who think the sky is falling and global warming will kill us all...If there is global warming and we can expect growing severe weather as the norm, why oh why has Florida not experienced a major hurricane in

NINE YEARS??????
Setanta
 
  3  
Reply Sun 22 Feb, 2015 10:39 pm
@giujohn,
Got any evidence for your claims, big boy, or are you just shooting your mouth off again and thinking you should be believed just because you say so?
Setanta
 
  3  
Reply Sun 22 Feb, 2015 10:51 pm
@giujohn,
giujohn wrote:
If you want to refute my info then do so with facts.


I don't have to refute anything you post, and if you don't provide any evidence, then i am justified in pointing out that you're just peddling BS.

As for the Toba event, the whole point is that it precipitated a cooling period, bright boy. You don't understand how this works, do you? The Toba event is estimated to have been 100 times as massive as the Tambora eruption, the effects of which i have detailed above.

Here, dipshit, why don't you educate yourself: the Toba page from Oxford University.
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Mon 23 Feb, 2015 12:03 am
@giujohn,
giujohn wrote:
why oh why has Florida not experienced a major hurricane in NINE YEARS??????
Lucky. But since it's called global climate change ....

http://i57.tinypic.com/6hm353.jpg

giujohn
 
  0  
Reply Mon 23 Feb, 2015 06:18 pm
@Setanta,
Quote:
Got any evidence for your claims, big boy, or are you just shooting your mouth off again and thinking you should be believed just because you say so?


I assume that since you are on the internet you know how to do a google search. Now if you are a complete moron, I will be happy to provide you with the information...but you will have to admitt to being the moron we think you are...other wise, do you own reasearch.
Setanta
 
  3  
Reply Mon 23 Feb, 2015 06:20 pm
@giujohn,
What's this "we" ****, bright boy, have you got a mouse in your pocket? As i pointed out before, if you can't back up your claims, no will take you seriously, and people will call bullshit on you--with good reason. The common American expression is put up or shut up.
0 Replies
 
giujohn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Feb, 2015 06:42 pm
@Setanta,
Quote:

As for the Toba event, the whole point is that it precipitated a cooling period, bright boy. You don't understand how this works, do you? The Toba event is estimated to have been 100 times as massive as the Tambora eruption, the effects of which i have detailed above.


Man, you make this too easy...The "point" is you stated that, 1. it caused the bottleneck on the homosapian-sapian population and, 2. you didnt see anything in the ice core data to account for Toba.

Your "info" from OU is out dated(2009) and has since been discounted as to the bottleneck. Now, you agree that there was a cooling period after Toba. The cooling period is the result of all that ash blocking the sun, so I guess you do see Toba accounted for in the data.
Also dumbass, dont throw around terms just to try to impress others. Toba was NOT a stratovolcano...it was a caldera or supervolcano. A stratovolcano is like Mt. St. Helens (with a cone) and a caldera is like yellowstone, spread out over many miles, is bowl shaped and under ground (you picked the wrong subject to joust with me).
Is that enough "put up" for ya...HA-HA. ( I like to wait for dumbasses like you put their foot in their mouth before I "put up")
giujohn
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 23 Feb, 2015 06:53 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Quote:
Lucky.


Maybe...but what it isnt is a warming...yet.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  3  
Reply Mon 23 Feb, 2015 06:54 pm
@giujohn,
What evidence do you have for your claim, bright boy? Just peddling your bullshit again? When you failed to back up your bullshit earlier in this thread, Roswell and i were discussing the data he presented. I didn't say that Toba caused a bottleneck, i pointed out that some scientists have made that claim--that's why i used the word "seeming." Is English not your native language, bright boy? Roswell and i were discussing the chart he provided, and we both same to the conclusion that it didn't have sufficient resolution for the Tambora eruption, and i suspect that there is a serious flaw in it if it doesn't include the Toba event. furthermore, the chart Roswell subsequently provided was for CO2 content from the ice core samples, which does not in fact tell us anything about average annual temperatures.

Try to keep up, bright boy, will ya?
 

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