Democrats and the press as sure about midterms as in 2016
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Despite this barrage of promising pow! pow! pow! news for Republicans, the press is still in blue-waveville, calling a rout for Republicans in the upcoming midterms. Look at what Axios’s Mike Allen ran as his top three news picks for today, complete with a GIF graphic portraying an GOP elephant dripping a flood of tears:
Does that sound like the world where Ted Cruz is up nine points in the polls, the GOP snatched a blue statehouse safe seat from the Democrats, and California’s Gavin Newsom is clearly on his backfoot against the GOP’s John Cox in the governor’s race? I really wonder.
There was the doom-and-gloom GOP internal poll that Rick Moran wrote about yesterday, and it does underscore the hard contest these midterms could be for Republicans. But polls, as Jack Hellner points out today, have been notoriously wrong in the age of Trump. What I sense now is some crazy overconfidence by the Democrats, slightly redolent of 2016, back when Democrats were convinced that presidential candidate Hillary Clinton had it in the bag and woke up to the Mother of All Hangovers when President Trump won the election.
Two things are operative, and they are worth noting….
China, the communist country, is blowing the doors off the big "capitalist" USA.
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neptuneblue
4
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Thu 20 Sep, 2018 07:56 pm
Internal GOP Poll: 'We've Lost the Messaging Battle' on Tax Cuts
By Sahil Kapur and Joshua Green
September 20, 2018, 4:55 PM EDT
Voters say 2-to-1 the tax law benefits rich over middle class
Tax law looms large ahead of November congressional elections
A survey commissioned by the Republican National Committee has led the party to a glum conclusion regarding President Donald Trump’s signature legislative achievement: Voters overwhelmingly believe his tax overhaul helps the wealthy instead of average Americans.
By a 2-to-1 margin -- 61 percent to 30 percent -- respondents said the law benefits “large corporations and rich Americans” over “middle class families,” according to the survey, which was completed on Sept. 2 by the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies and obtained by Bloomberg News.
The result was fueled by self-identified independent voters who said by a 36-point margin that large corporations and rich Americans benefit more from the tax law -- a result that was even more lopsided among Democrats. Republican voters said by a 38-point margin that the middle class benefits more.
When it comes to approval for the tax overhaul, American voters remain torn -- 44 percent favor it and 45 percent oppose it.
“Voters are evenly divided on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,” the RNC-commissioned report said. “But, we’ve lost the messaging battle on the issue.”
The tax law slashed the corporate tax rate permanently to 21 percent from 35 percent. It also reduced individual tax rates, doubled the standard deduction, eliminated or capped some itemized deductions, most notably for state and local taxes, and created a special break for pass-through businesses like partnerships until the end of 2025. That year, 25 percent of the gains will go to the top 1 percent while 66 percent of the benefits will go to the top one-fifth of earners, according to an analysis from the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.
Taxes are reduced on average for all quintiles of Americans through 2025, although some would pay more due to the limitation of tax deductions. By 2027, after the individual changes have sunset, 83 percent of the benefits will go to the top 1 percent.
Trump signed the law on Dec. 22, after it passed Congress without a single Democratic vote.
The RNC study says Americans worry the tax law will lead to cuts in Social Security and Medicare, concluding that “most voters believe that the GOP wants to cut back on these programs in order to provide tax breaks for corporations and the wealthy.” It attributes that finding to “a fairly disciplined Democrat attack against the recent tax cuts.”
Tax Cuts 2.0
Still, Republican leaders continue to try to sell the law. They’re planning on holding a floor vote in the House next week for a second phase of tax changes that would make the individual changes permanent. Since it has a slim chance of passing the Senate, the effort is seen as a political messaging tool to remind voters of the cuts and force Democrats to take an uncomfortable vote against tax relief for middle-class Americans.
“We promised more jobs, fairer taxes, and bigger paychecks. And we delivered on that promise,” House Speaker Paul Ryan’s office said in an email, adding that Americans are “better off now” under the tax changes.
A spokeswoman for the RNC didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
The GOP poll comes nine months after party leaders voiced high hopes that the tax law would benefit them politically in the midterm elections on Nov. 6, when control of Congress will be up for grabs.
“If we can’t sell this to the American people, we ought to go into another line of work,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said in December, after his chamber approved the legislation.
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neptuneblue
4
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Thu 20 Sep, 2018 08:08 pm
Set the health care record straight: Republicans helped craft Obamacare
Ross K. Baker, Opinion columnist Published 4:40 p.m. ET Aug. 1, 2017 | Updated 7:49 p.m. ET Aug. 1, 2017
The Senate has rejected a measure to repeal parts of former President Barack Obama's health law, dealing a serious blow to President Donald Trump and the GOP agenda. The final vote was 51-49. (July 28) AP
A final vote isn't the whole story. It's like researching your ancestry and going no further back than your mother and father.
The day after she was one of three Republican senators to vote against her party's proposal to repeal chunks of the Affordable Care Act, Susan Collins of Maine posted a press release that said: "Democrats made a big mistake when they passed the ACA without a single Republican vote. I don't want to see Republicans make the same mistake."
It was a nice nod in the direction of bipartisanship. But it also perpetuates a deceptive narrative, repeated often by Republicans, that they were completely excluded from the process that resulted in Obamacare. While it is true that no Republican voted for the final bill, it is blatantly untrue that it contains no GOP DNA. In fact, to make such an assertion is like researching your ancestry and going no further back than your mother and father.
Not only were Republican senators deeply involved in the process up until its conclusion, but it's a cinch that the ACA might have become law months earlier if the Democrats, hoping for a bipartisan bill, hadn't spent enormous time and effort wooing GOP senators — only to find themselves gulled by false promises of cooperation. And unlike Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's semi-secret proceedings that involved only a handful of trusted colleagues, Obamacare, until the very end of the process, was open to public scrutiny.
Let's set the record straight. The Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (known as the HELP Committee), chaired first by Edward Kennedy and later by Christopher Dodd, held 14 bipartisan round-table meetings and 13 public hearings. Democrats on that committee accepted 160 Republican amendments to the bill. The Senate Finance Committee, chaired by Montana Democrat Max Baucus, was writing its own version of the ACA. It held 17 bipartisan round-table sessions, summit meetings and hearings with Republican senators.
On the House side, the Republican leadership made it clear to members that they were not to cooperate in any way with the effort to create the health insurance program proposed by President Obama. McConnell, then the Senate minority leader, was equally disapproving of cooperation. Despite that, a few Republican senators, such as Finance Committee members Charles Grassley of Iowa and Mike Enzi of Wyoming, were in discussions with the Democrats until McConnell warned both men that their future in the party would be in jeopardy if they supported the bill.
By the summer recess in August 2009, Republicans like Grassley were back in their states and hearing from the Tea Party movement that cooperating with Democrats on health care reform was akin to trading with the enemy. Nonetheless, a few Republicans such as Maine senator Olympia Snowe continued to work with Finance Committee Democrats. Remarkably, the bill before the committee was based on a plan devised by the Republicans more than a decade before — including now familiar elements of Obamacare such as the individual mandate requiring people to buy insurance, and state exchanges or marketplaces with plans offered by private insurers.
Cooperation with Republicans had the blessing of the highest Democratic authority. President Obama, seeking a "grand bargain" on health reform, conferred his benediction to continue discussions with any Republican senator willing to participate, but by the fall of 2009 it was clear that having the support of only one or two GOP senators would not be enough Republican DNA to support a plausible claim of bipartisanship. It was at this point that the work did move behind closed doors and into the leadership suite of Democratic leader Harry Reid.
It is always a mistake to infer from a vote on final passage of a bill in Congress that bipartisan cooperation was wholly absent from the process. You cannot assume that even a bill with no votes at all from the other party was not significantly influenced by the opposition at earlier stages in its development.
It may be politically useful for firing up your political base to accuse the other party of exclusionary tactics, but in most cases it just ain't so. Bipartisanship is encoded in much of the work that Congress does. Polarization is a much more compelling narrative, but it is rarely the whole story.
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mysteryman841
-3
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Fri 21 Sep, 2018 10:47 am
@Region Philbis,
Cosby was an adult, not a 17 year old high school kid.
There is a big difference.
First, don’t believe any polls that show Trump losing. Remember the polls that had Hillary Clinton winning? These are the same pollsters telling us that Trump polls low. The fact is, Trump is more popular than when he was elected by at least 8 points. That alone poses major problems for the Left.
Second, polling shows that Democrats continue to leave their party. Worse yet, black and Latino Democrats are migrating the fastest. Add to them Millennials and women, and you understand my optimism.
Blacks are said to have moved from 9 percent to over 36 percent approval of Trump. The president only needed less than a 3 percent movement of the black vote to wreak havoc with Democrats.
Democrats depend on longshots that have no chance of anything coming to fruition. Stormy Daniels, Michael Avenatti, Mad Max’s cries for impeachment, Russian collusion, Cohen, Manafort, racism, Trump University, #MeToo, and so on. None of it will work. I suggest that this poll is a prank. It is steeped in fake news, which as we know Leftists love.
Other than say, type or copy and paste, no nothing else comes immediately to mind, cj. But the point is that almost all of your dog and pony show is a farcical lie, with the odd smattering of truth.
Quicksilver Messenger Service?? What is the likes of you trying to do passing himself off as a fan of Quicksilver Messenger Service?
Sample of the lyrics:
You poisoned my sweet water
You cut down my green trees
The food you fed my children
Was the cause of their disease
My world is slowly fallin' down
And the air's not good to breathe
And those of us who care enough
We have to do something...
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coldjoint
-1
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Fri 21 Sep, 2018 06:33 pm
Something just for you.
Real fans realize no one is perfect, you not so much.