Turning The Ballot Box Against Republicans

Trump's burgeoning trade war with China is starting to get dangerous for the economy
Bob Bryan
Jun. 20, 2018

The trade spat between President Donald Trump and China is heating up, with tariff threats escalating.

•Comments from top officials in the Trump administration suggest the trade tensions will not dissipate anytime soon.

•Economists think the size of Trump's newest trade threats risk putting an even bigger dent in the US economy.

President Donald Trump increasingly seems headed toward a trade war with China, and US consumers could soon start feeling the squeeze.

The battle between Trump and Beijing has kicked into high gear over the past week. The two sides traded back-and-forth tariff threats on $50 billion worth of imports on Friday, and then Trump on Monday threatened tariffs on another $200 billion worth of imports.

While the threat of a new massive tariff is just that — and the earliest any of those tariffs are set to take effect is July 6 — the Trump administration's antagonistic rhetoric toward China appears to indicate that the battle isn't going to end anytime soon.

"You see what's happening with China," Trump said Tuesday during a speech to the National Federation of Independent Businesses. "We have no choice. This should have been done many years ago. We have no choice."

Peter Navarro, Trump's most protectionist trade adviser, blasted China during a briefing with reporters on Tuesday. He said China's previous attempts to defuse the situation — China reportedly offered to purchase billions of dollars' worth of US agricultural and energy products — were not enough.

"At the end of the day, at this point in time, I think that the other side may have underestimated the strong resolve of President Donald J. Trump," Navarro said. "If they thought they could buy us off cheap with a few extra products sold and allow them to continue to steal our intellectual property, that was a miscalculation. We hope going forward there are no more miscalculations."

Navarro also indicated that no trade talks with China were planned but said the administration was willing to hold discussions.

"Our phones lines are open — they've always been open," Navarro said.

Less hawkish members of the Trump administration have echoed Navarro's thoughts. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo attacked China on Monday during a speech in Detroit.

"It's the most predatory economic government that operates against the rest of the world today," Pompeo said. "This is a problem that is long overdue in being tackled."

Despite the harsh words from high-level officials, Navarro tried to downplay the economic downsides of the tariffs, calling them "relatively small" and insisting the eventual results of the fight would be positive.

"Our view is that these actions are necessary to defend this country and they are ultimately bullish for corporate America, for the working men and women of America, and for the global trading system," Navarro said.

US businesses, consumers stuck in the middle

Caught in the middle of the fight between Trump and Beijing are US consumers and businesses.

"Let's hope that Americans wake up in time to understand this reality that they, not the Chinese, will be the ones hurt the most by their president's insistence that they should pay high prices for imports, including those that are used by many US manufacturers," Veronique de Rugy, a senior research fellow at George Mason University's Mercatus Center, said Tuesday.

Tariffs drive up the cost of goods coming into the US, forcing businesses to pay more for imported goods or buy more expensive domestically produced goods. This causes costs to increase for businesses that use those goods as parts for their final product. In turn, these firms must either absorb those new costs or pass down price increases to consumers.

The Deutsche Bank economists Brett Ryan, Peter Hooper, and Matthew Luzzetti found that the tariffs introduced by Trump could push up inflation and result in a drag on economic growth.
•"Our analysis indicates that such a further escalation of the trade dispute to include $200 billion of imports could reduce real GDP growth by roughly -0.2 to -0.3 percentage points," the trio said in a note to clients.
•"In addition, the effective $32.5 billion 'tax' on imported goods could have the effect of boosting core PCE inflation by roughly 0.15 percentage points."

In essence, they said, consumers are likely to pay more for goods that are subject to tariffs and buy less as a result, which would slow the growth of the US economy.

Gregory Daco, the chief US economist at Oxford Economics, estimated that Trump's newest tariff threat, on $200 billion of Chinese goods, would shave 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points off gross domestic product. He cited two reasons it posed an even larger indirect problem for US firms.
•"First, the tariffs on $200 billion of imports would affect a wide array of business sectors including some with significant supply chain multipliers (i.e. sectors where each dollar of activity generates more than a dollar of activity in other sectors)," Daco said.
•"Second, the potential financial market and confidence impact would be substantial."

Several industry groups covering everything from auto manufacturers to winemakers sent a letter to GOP lawmakers urging Congress to step in to block Trump's tariffs. Even the Business Roundtable, an influential business lobby, urged the president to step back from the trade fight.

"Quadrupling down on a 'shoot first' approach with the Chinese government will only make it harder to achieve a fair and level playing field for American companies to compete in China," the group said in a statement. "Risking a trade war with more tariffs will only invite more retaliation that will cause significant harm to the US economy."

But the ongoing rhetoric between Beijing and the Trump teams has left little hope for a quick solution.

"There will likely be no rest for the weary among trade warriors and their watchers in the months ahead," the Deutsche Bank economists said.
http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-china-tariff-fight-trade-war-hurts-economy-jobs-2018-6

No more dangerous than the Democrats.

Trump really doesn't understand economics. Tariffs are only taxes that will be paid by consumers. The higher cost also makes buying less attractive which hampers businesses from selling their products - which in turn effects employment with less jobs. It becomes a domino effect that results in closing businesses. Closing businesses means the owner of the building losses his occupants and the rents. Builders are less likely to continue building when there is no demand for more space, so they lose out on jobs. The raw material produces are also affected including the transportation system.
Trump is a dangerous moron who fails to understand simple economic concepts. Our economy is relatively healthy compared to other countries, but Trump is adding unnecessary handicaps that only stifles growth. Some financial pundits are predicting a great recession from Trump's actions. https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertlenzner/2018/06/22/trade-war-would-spark-inflation-slow-economic-growth-hinder-stock-prices/?partner=yahootix&yptr=yahoo#15e2f945269e

Transgender Soldier Has A Message For Donald Trump
https://www.facebook.com/MyTransLife/videos/147774769258924/

Be out, be proud!

California Crops Rot as Immigration Crackdown Creates Farmworker Shortage
http://fortune.com/2017/08/08/immigration-worker-shortage-rotting-crops/

Happy tax deadline day! Here’s a reminder that President Donald J. Trump has not only refused to reveal his tax returns like he repeatedly promised, but he's bragged about how little money he's paid to the IRS.

Crops have been rotting since August 2017?

http://fortune.com/2017/08/08/immigration-worker-shortage-rotting-crops/

Get out, be gone.

Good motto for you.

Why? The truth upsets that much. Poor baby.

80% of asylum claims from the southern border are bogus, just like this fake outage over children and their parents who break the law.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/80-percent-of-asylum-cases-at-southwest-border-arent-legitimate-dhs-chief-says

You do notice that this article is almost a year old... In a year, those farmers who haven't started a transition to mechanized picking are setting themselves and American citizens up for failure. In this day and age of "self-driving" cars, why isn't there more machines doing the work?

Because 80% of claims are not accepted does not mean they are bogus--you are putting forth an unjustified conclusion. An asylum claim might be quite valid, but simply not meet what the government requires in terms of documentation or other specific criteria.

On the other hand, probably 80%--at least--of the claims made by Trump are bogus. That is, bogus in the true sense of the word--as in false, untrue, lies, fake--because Trump ranks as the country's Liar-In-Chief.






Oh the outrage is quite real, and bipartisan, and that's why Trump was forced to back off somewhat. And it may well negatively affect the mid-term elections for the Republicans.

If you read the article again, it says they are illegitimate, that is the same thing as bogus, meaning they don't have legitimate claims of asylum, just like the lady who's kid was used on the bogus Time mag cover.

Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen has been known to be publicly less than truthful.

But, if you reread your article carefully, you will note that she says 80% don't meet the criteria for asylum--which is what I said in my last post.

She can't, and didn't, support the finding (or headline) that 80% of these claims are fraudulent or bogus--it was pure "speculation" and exaggeration on her part to provide biased red meat for Fox News and Trump.

You want to believe Trump fairy tales, and bogus statistics. go right ahead.

What else could it mean if they don't fit the criteria? We don't have that high a standard for asylum and it seems that 80% of those at the southern border who apply, are rejected on grounds they don't meet the criteria, that would mean that their claims are bogus and they just want to be in the US... nothing more nothing less.

[url]Asylum has three basic requirements. First, an asylum applicant must establish that he or she fears persecution in their home country.[3] Second, the applicant must prove that he or she would be persecuted on account of one of five protected grounds: race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or particular social group. Third, an applicant must establish that the government is either involved in the persecution, or unable to control the conduct of private actors.[/url]


Which statistics are bogus and what are the real #?

It could simply mean that they lack adequate documentation to bolster the claim at the border or in immigration courts, but not that the claim itself is bogus. Most of these people are fleeing, in desperation and fear, from several countries and cities that rank as the most murderous in the world. It is far more then "they just want to be in the U.S."--they flee here because they fear for their lives and the lives of their children.




80% of asylum requests are not granted. That number appears to be real.

But I don't think we have any breakdown of that 80% in terms of the specific numbers turned down, and for what specific reasons. Our government's immigration and asylum processing procedures are not seemingly transparent, or fully open to scrutiny, as our criminal and civil courts are. Unfortunately.