23
   

What if we ARE utterly alone in the galaxy?

 
 
Frank Apisa
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2014 05:02 am
@OmSigDAVID,
OmSigDAVID wrote:


That sounds like a reasonable question. . . .


Thank you, David. I think it is reasonable also.

The guy doesn't say, "We MAY BE the only one advanced technological civilization in this galaxy and IT MAY BE that there has only been one - and that's us. We MAY BE unique."

He states all those things as fact...settled fact.

I cannot think of how it can be anything but a blind guess...

...unless he is GOD.
Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2014 05:06 am
@Frank Apisa,
Blind guess implies no information basis whatever. That's why i laugh at you whenever you trot that out. He certainly could be wrong, but that doesn't mean he just walked into the studio and took a shot in the dark. You're quoting the OP. Did you actually read the linked article? This is the opening paragraph of teh linked article:

Quote:
The biological process which lead to intelligent life on earth was a fluke that is unlikely to have been repeated anywhere else in the universe, claims Professor Brian Cox.


So he has a basis for his speculation. As i say, he could be wrong, but this is by no means a "blind guess." You've become so obsessed with this "i don't do belief" horseshit and this "blind guess" horseshit, that it has warped the paltry reasoning ability that you bring to the table.

Quote:
The biological process which lead to intelligent life on earth was a fluke that is unlikely to have been repeated anywhere else in the universe, claims Professor Brian Cox.
Princeton University astrophysicists Dr Timothy Brandt and Dr David Spiegel made the suggestions in a paper called 'Prospects for detecting oxygen, water and chlorophyll on an exo-Earth.'
They say that it might be possible to detect signatures of water, oxygen and chlorophyll on an alien planet.
One hundred million worlds in our galaxy are able to host alien life, according to a 'conservative' prediction by Nasa.


Obviously, not everyone agrees with Mr. Cox. Just because you don't understand what lead him to his conclusion, however, is not evidence that he has made a "blind guess."
Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2014 05:21 am
From the New Zealand website "Stuff" quoteing a tweet by Cox:

Quote:
However, amid widespread media coverage after the broadcast, including on Stuff, along the lines of "we are alone in the universe", Cox tweeted: FOR LAST TIME: I think life is common in universe. We MAY be only civ. in Milky Way. There WILL be other civilisations in univ.


Just because journalists took this an ran with it is not evidence that a physicist who is highly respected in his field, a member of the Order of the British Empire, a Royal Society university research fellow, and a Particle Physics and Astronomy Research Council research fellow at the University of Manchester just makes **** up out of his head.
contrex
 
  3  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2014 05:36 am
@Frank Apisa,
Frank Apisa wrote:
How can that be anything but a blind guess???

Read his post again. He wrote: " He is speculating based on the state of the knowledge of biology that we presently have available to us." In other words, not a guess, and not blind.
farmerman
 
  3  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2014 05:36 am
@Setanta,

There are several toy level (and a number of research level) programs that parallel the development on this planet and use it as inputs to see what could happen if certain conditions change through history.
All of these runs require some rather simple changes in the earths (or any planets ) initial environments to promote the development of a loooong period of single to multicell life.Whats kind of neat is that The occurrence of a Cambrian Explosion is almost a chemical" given" as free Carbonate and a buffered saline environment occur.
These chemical conditions are apparently driven to occur as long as the planet has a molten and multi-layer mantle (so that continents can drift about and erode salts) and the planet contains free water. It concludes that a Cambrian Explosion style of a blooming life is sorta inevitable (based upon the inputs on the models).

AFTER a Cambrian Explosion however, its a Chinese fire drill. In most all cases, life adapted to an environment and there was no innate driving of life to become "clever" . So, using biological expansions, the chances of developing a big brained pinnacle species who controls his environment is about 99% staked against.99% is good enough to say its inevitable that some time a clever pinnacle species would develop(maybe itd be a lizard or even some other new form of life that isn't anything like we can recognize)

SO, according to that, the only variable that deteremines the inevitability of anything is time and the good luck not to be wiped out by a bolide,solar flare, or gamma burst in the neighborhood.

I think we will ultimately extend our influence to a coupleof lightyears out there. So all these things will be be made obvious to us. I just wish I could live longer and see it happen.




outcomes.
izzythepush
 
  0  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2014 05:40 am
@Setanta,
Not forgetting D Ream.
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  3  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2014 05:43 am
@Frank Apisa,
there are "Blind guesses" and there are models. When you don't understand the inputs that can go into a model, calling it a blind guess is almost acceptable except that you gotta understand that we do apply some of the bases of our personal reality when generating models.


Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2014 05:44 am
Hmmm . . . given his taste in music, i may have to revise my opinion of him.

(For the literal minded, relax, that was Setire.)
0 Replies
 
dalehileman
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2014 09:50 am
@Brandon9000,
Quote:
I am very skeptical of the idea that we are so fantastically lucky.
Me too Bran, especially since recent surmise that there may be more planets than stars. Assuming the rules are the same everywhere, intuition strongly suggests there are probably millions if indeed not billions of other inhabited planets

Quote:
However, if we are the only intelligent life, it would really make it a duty to not destroy ourselves
Or even if not. I speculate we got a pretty good sphere, comparatively diverse, and it's appalling what we're doing to it
0 Replies
 
Frank Apisa
 
  0  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2014 11:08 am
@Setanta,
Setanta wrote:

Blind guess implies no information basis whatever. That's why i laugh at you whenever you trot that out. He certainly could be wrong, but that doesn't mean he just walked into the studio and took a shot in the dark. You're quoting the OP. Did you actually read the linked article? This is the opening paragraph of teh linked article:

Quote:
The biological process which lead to intelligent life on earth was a fluke that is unlikely to have been repeated anywhere else in the universe, claims Professor Brian Cox.


So he has a basis for his speculation. As i say, he could be wrong, but this is by no means a "blind guess." You've become so obsessed with this "i don't do belief" horseshit and this "blind guess" horseshit, that it has warped the paltry reasoning ability that you bring to the table.

Quote:
The biological process which lead to intelligent life on earth was a fluke that is unlikely to have been repeated anywhere else in the universe, claims Professor Brian Cox.
Princeton University astrophysicists Dr Timothy Brandt and Dr David Spiegel made the suggestions in a paper called 'Prospects for detecting oxygen, water and chlorophyll on an exo-Earth.'
They say that it might be possible to detect signatures of water, oxygen and chlorophyll on an alien planet.
One hundred million worlds in our galaxy are able to host alien life, according to a 'conservative' prediction by Nasa.


Obviously, not everyone agrees with Mr. Cox. Just because you don't understand what lead him to his conclusion, however, is not evidence that he has made a "blind guess."


He did not write, "We MAY BE the only one advanced technological civilization in this galaxy and IT MAY BE that there has only been one - and that's us. We MAY BE unique"...

...he wrote:

"There is only one advanced technological civilization in this galaxy and there has only ever been one - and that's us. We are unique."

That is a totally, one hundred percent blind guess.

Live with it...or kid yourself. Makes no difference to me.

0 Replies
 
Frank Apisa
 
  0  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2014 11:09 am
@contrex,
contrex wrote:

Frank Apisa wrote:
How can that be anything but a blind guess???

Read his post again. He wrote: " He is speculating based on the state of the knowledge of biology that we presently have available to us." In other words, not a guess, and not blind.



Please refer to the response I just posted to Setanta.
0 Replies
 
Frank Apisa
 
  0  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2014 11:09 am
@farmerman,
farmerman wrote:

there are "Blind guesses" and there are models. When you don't understand the inputs that can go into a model, calling it a blind guess is almost acceptable except that you gotta understand that we do apply some of the bases of our personal reality when generating models.





I understand what you are saying, FM...but the comment as posted...is a blind guess.
Lustig Andrei
 
  2  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2014 11:48 am
@OmSigDAVID,
OmSigDAVID wrote:


Gee . . . I wonder if Setanta is picking a fight . . . .


With you egging them on, of course. You're a treouble-maker, Dave, Smile
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2014 11:53 am
@Frank Apisa,
There's nothing blind about it, it's a judgement based on available evidence by someone who knows considerably more about the subject than you do. When you get a Phd in high-energy particle physics you'll be in a position to judge just how blind a guess it is. Until that day you should reserve judgement and try to come to terms with the fact that you don't know everything.
Brandon9000
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2014 12:22 pm
There is some knowledge in existence about the general principles that would be involved, but not nearly enough from which to draw a firm conclusion, and the scientific community doesn't agree within itself.
Tekla
 
  -2  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2014 12:57 pm
@rosborne979,
We didn't find any aliens and we won't find in the next 100 years any.

Crop circles instructions you get by internet.

Why should an individual be around and not found between 50 years ? They would laugh about us if they would exist.


Cr
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2014 01:03 pm
@Brandon9000,
It's still not a "blind guess." That's what Frank and I would make.
0 Replies
 
Frank Apisa
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2014 01:05 pm
@izzythepush,
izzythepush wrote:

There's nothing blind about it, it's a judgement based on available evidence by someone who knows considerably more about the subject than you do. When you get a Phd in high-energy particle physics you'll be in a position to judge just how blind a guess it is. Until that day you should reserve judgement and try to come to terms with the fact that you don't know everything.


I do not know everything, Izzy...and I probably acknowledge that more than anyone else in this forum.

The comment, "There is only one advanced technological civilization in this galaxy and there has only ever been one - and that's us. We are unique."...is nothing but a blind guess.

Try to come to terms with that.
Chumly
 
  2  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2014 01:10 pm
@rosborne979,
rosborne979 wrote:
How does it make you feel, being the only intelligent species anywhere?
Rather like presenting my lesson plans to the class or being married to my present wife.
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Sun 2 Nov, 2014 01:15 pm
@Frank Apisa,
You don't know enough to say that.
 

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