2004 Elections: Democratic Party Contenders

Good evening...
It strikes me (a staunch Dem) that Mr Kerry shouldn't worry about Mr Bush's poll numbers at this point. He should spend his time between now and July (when the conventions will be held) connecting with the people in every region of the country. And, oh yes, raising money.
He shouldn't worry about the ads that Mr Bush is running. Nobody is listening right now.
The 9-11 hearings; the lack of progress in Iraq (with almost 600 US deaths and 3500 wounded), and various economic reports suggesting storm clouds on our horizon convince me that Mr Bush will have a busy summer without Mr Kerry getting too involved.
Obviousy, Mr Kerry will have to address these issues at some time.

The logic behind the ads, in as far as Ive seen commentors and people from the Bush campaign itself remark on it, is to get an early lead in defining Kerry.

nimh wrote:

The logic behind the ads, in as far as Ive seen commentors and people from the Bush campaign itself remark on it, is to get an early lead in defining Kerry.

Thanks, I was going to type that yesterday but got called away and forgot to.

TODAY'S NUMBERS: So much for the theory that John Kerry would be better off on vacation than on the campaign trail. The two polls out today, one by Pew and one by Gallup, show that Bush's advertising blitz has had a far greater effect on the electorate than Richard Clarke's criticisms. While Clarke has dented Bush's approval rating on terrorism, Kerry has shown no movement on the issue, and, more importantly, Bush has eaten away at Kerry's approval ratings on every other topic of concern to voters.

In the Pew poll, Bush's rating on terrorism dropped four points, but there is no significant net change since Kerry himself dropped three points on the issue. On all the other issues tested the poll shows Kerry dropping and Bush gaining or remaining steady since Pew's last survey in mid-March. Kerry dropped eight points on handling the situation in Iraq; seven points on foreign policy; nine points on trade, the economy, and education; and eleven points on both the job situation and health care.

The Gallup poll shows that Bush's arguments about Kerry are having dramatic results. Here's USA Today's summary:

"TV ads are powerful. A majority echo the Bush ads' themes about the Massachusetts senator: 57% say Kerry has changed positions for political reasons, and 58% say their federal taxes will go up if he's elected. And the percentage who say he's ''too liberal'' has jumped from 29% in February to 41% now.."

Watching the White House take incoming from Clarke over the last nine days, some pundits have joked that Kerry's best strategy may be to just stay on vacation or schedule more surgery. But these two polls suggest that what Kerry really needs to be doing is forcefully rebutting charges that he is weak on defense and a tax-raising liberal. In the battle of Bush's TV ads versus Richard Clarke's accusations, score one for TV ads.

posted 10:34 a.m.

A majority echo the Bush ads' themes about the Massachusetts senator: 57% say Kerry has changed positions for political reasons, and 58% say their federal taxes will go up if he's elected. And the percentage who say he's ''too liberal'' has jumped from 29% in February to 41% now.."

Good point, Sofia. It's like this bit of the citation above:

Quote:

A majority echo the Bush ads' themes about the Massachusetts senator: 57% say Kerry has changed positions for political reasons, and 58% say their federal taxes will go up if he's elected. And the percentage who say he's ''too liberal'' has jumped from 29% in February to 41% now.."

Note that the article posits as fact the notion that people MUST HAVE come to these conclusions because of the Bush ads. NOBODY in America might have considered the facts and come to their own conclusions. The reality of Kerry couldn't just be catching up to Kerry, no... if people don't like a Democrat it's because of something a Republican did. (Which possibility sits fine with me, but it is just one of many possibilities.)