Scrat, yeh, that quote seems to have gotten a life quite of its own.
Meanwhile - hey, it's NIMH - another poll! With a SURPRISING twist. It's
the latest Gallup one.
Its got Kerry 50% to 45% ahead on Bush. Add Nader to the race, and it becomes tighter: 47%-45%-5%. But on the other hand, "Nader will draw far less support among people who actually turn out to vote than among the larger population of registered voters nationwide" - and in fact, Bush does, slightly, too. So if you look at only the "likely voters", the margin is better for Kerry again: 50%-44%-2%. (This means that a high turnout would play badly for the Democrat - isn't it usually the other way round?).
But, anyway, that's not what I wanted to point out. Cause, as people dont get tired of saying, its not about the popular vote -
its about the Electoral College.
Well, OK, here's the twist. You got "red states", right - that's where Bush won by over 5% in 2000. And you got "blue states", where Gore won by over 5% in 2000. And then you got so-called "purple states", the ones that were close in 2000: Ohio, Nevada, Missouri, Tennessee, New Hampshire, Florida, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Iowa, Oregon, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania.
Now get ready for the kicker:
Kerry does even better vs. Bush in the states that were close in 2000, than in "his own" blue states!
The equation holds up when you add Nader to the equation as well -
again, its the battleground states where Bush does worst: