That's pretty much a given, c, i,
I dunno ... its not uncommon for a campaign to be carried by a darkhorse. Edwards sorta meets the profile, moreso than either Dean or Clark. Gephardt's endorsement will be of huge advantage to whomever gets it, and right now, I see only Kerry and Edwards vying for Gep's nod. Kerry likely will survive with or without it, but would be all that much stronger with it. Edwards, however, desperately needs it. Will Gephardt throw in with the Old Guard Kerry? That would have strong precedent, but Gephardt could gain instant Respected Elder Statesman status as the kingmaker behind an emergent Superstar. NH is known for surprises. In fact, you can just about count on 'em, no matter what the polls show. It wouldn't be anywhere near as interesting now if the polls leading up to Iowa had been more congruent with the actual results.
Looking back to the runup to Iowa, I was a lot more accurate in my assessment of Edwards than of Gephardt, and while I expected more of Dean, I felt Kerry and Edwards had unsuspected strength, while Dean stood at risk of chastening. I gotta say Gephardt both surprised and disappointed me; I figured he'd have been a bit stronger, and that he'd not give up untill after NH.
Going into NH, I see a three-way tussle for a strong 3rd place showing. Without a significant rebound, Dean goes into the February scramble at severe, if not insurmountable, disadvantage. Clark and Lieberman both essentially have "bet it all" on NH, and both must either surprise or succumb. One or the other is doomed, and without a strong showing, neither has prospect of ultimate success, if history is any guide. I think I feel sorry for Joe.
OK, I'm ready for my surprise :wink: