2004 Elections: Democratic Party Contenders

Dunno how hard he's been hit, or if he's actually burning, but it looks to me Clark might be beginning to trail a little fuel here



I suspect that's gonna play real well with the NASCAR crowd, The Military and Veterans, Bob and Suzy Churchgoer, and Joe and Sally Sixpack everywhere.

Oh, and

In case you missed it, there is now a very small list of words which is auto-filtered. Pain in the butt, yeah, but far more practical than constantly scouring gratuitous vulgarisms and sociopathisms from the website.

<Very Heavy Sigh>

timber:

Would you mind clarifying for me your opinion of Clark's picture on the cover of the Advocate?

Specifically, why you (apparently) think it's not a good idea?

He think it's not a good idea (for Clark) cause it's not "gonna play real well with the NASCAR crowd, The Military and Veterans, Bob and Suzy Churchgoer, and Joe and Sally Sixpack everywhere."

Thing is, with a bit of luck, not a whole lot of those people are going to see the cover of the Advocate.

And what is the RNC gonna do? Put a battle ad on TV that "exposes" Clark for appearing with gays? Even for the Republican party, gays have become too important a constituency to estrange with anti-gay ads.

Good answer, nimhberlandko. :wink:

That's kinda what I thought, too, but I also think Karl Rove will get a smear workin' on the down-low.

Homophobia shores up the conservative fundamentalist base, after all...

nimh, you have a valid point with your conjecture as to the breadth of coverage that will get. I doubt the RNC will seek to capitalize on it, but if it is played by the mainstream media, it will serve to at the very least further the disaffection of a body of The Electorate not inclined, for any of a variety of reasons, including but not limited to homophobia, to embrace the gay cause. If I were among Clark's handlers, I'd be a bit nervous about it ... I just don't see how it can play to a net gain, and I see great potential for net loss. Of course, great rewards can be realized by the willingness to undertake great risk. If I were Clark, I don't think I'd have bet on this one, though. I think this is far more likely to harm than to aid Clark's campaign, if it is to have any effect at all, which itself is not a given.

As I said, he might be leaking fuel. Maybe he isn't. Maybe its just a puff of vapor or an inconsquential whisp if smoke. If he is leaking fuel, however, that is not good at all, and if it ignites, he'll have damage control concerns of urgent nature.

We shall see.

The Boston Globe and Boston Hearld both laid out their endorsements for Kerry this morning. They both also released polls showing Kerry pulling away in NH.

The latest numbers from 3 different polls:

Boston Globe-WBZ-TV, Jan. 20-21, 400 LV, MoE, plus or minus 5

--John Kerry, 31 percent
--Howard Dean, 21 percent
--Wesley Clark, 16 percent
--John Edwards, 11 percent
--Joe Lieberman, 4 percent
--Dennis Kucinich, 1 percent
--Al Sharpton, less than 1 percent
--Undecided, 16 percent

Suffolk University-WDHD-TV, Jan. 20-21, 400 LV, MoE plus or minus 5.

--Kerry, 27 percent
--Dean, 19 percent
--Clark, 15 percent
--Edwards, 7 percent
--Lieberman, 6 percent
--Kucinich, 1 percent
--Sharpton, less than 1 percent
--Undecided, 25 percent

Boston Herald-RKM, Jan. 20-21, 501 LV, MoE plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. (NOT a tracking poll)

--Kerry, 31 percent
--Dean, 21 percent
--Clark, 16 percent
--Edwards, 11 percent
--Joe Lieberman, 4 percent
--Dennis Kucinich, 2 percent
--Al Sharpton, less than 1 percent
--Undecided, 14 percent

It's looking like things become a 4 way race after NH. Isn't one of the Carolina's next up? I'd think Clark and Edwards would have large advantages in the south. It could stay a 4 way race for a while....

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight, I didn't think of that; none of those people know any gay people, and therefore fear and loathe them. Especially if they are running for President. Even though Wesley Clark (and I have this on good authority) is not gay.

It's just, you know, his name is Wesley. And he's wearing an open-neck white T-shirt with a light jacket over it, on the cover of a gay magazine. Everybody knows what that means...



Fat chance. Kommandant Rove will make sure a poster appears on every church bulletin board, in every VA office, and above every speedway urinal in the nation if Clark is the nominee.



The neoconservatives are far from being sensitive to the concerns of the GLBT voting bloc, nimh.

FWIW, the Log Cabin Republicans give every appearance of being masochistic.

Estrangement doesn't even get them warmed up.

(And before anyone gets set to go off, my source for information on the LCR is my older brother, who is past president of the local chapter. And a Deanie.)

Interesting polls, fishin'.

What strikes me is that Clark doesnt seem too hurt by Iowa, in absolute terms of his support - he's still about where he was before the caucuses, isn't he?

It's just that he's got two people over him now. The only radical shift seems to be away from Dean, to Kerry and a little bit Edwards.

What about Lieberman, though, eh? He's been campaigning like crazy, in NH - but its like that columnist wrote - it seems that the more people get to know him, the less they like him.

Will he pull out after NH if he indeed stays at 5%? Or would he be intent to become the Kucinich of the Democritic Right?

I dunno nimh. If things turn out as the polls predict I don't see what benefit there'd be in Lieberman hanging in there. I get the impression he doesn't have significant strength anywhere really.

There are still a lot of "Undecided" voters out there though. He seems to be saying that he expects the majority of them to fall into his camp. Seems unrealistic but..

Well, Bush may have the neocons run his foreign policy, but I doubt he'd have them run his election campaign.

Anyhow, it wouldnt be about the GLBT voting bloc - those are probably lost, anyway. Its more that being seen to bash gays wouldnt play well with the moderately tolerant (or indifferent) centrist voters, which he does need: it wouldn't help with the "compassionate conservative" thing.

Of course, they could always use regional ads (in, say, Louisiana) to go around that. And one never knows.

Who'll win the Democratic nomination for president?

None of the above!

Lieberman is too nice a guy. He has no chance of surviving as the president in this political 'atmosphere.'

I agree, ci.

Dem debate tonite 8pm on Fox News.

Lieberman lacks sufficient courage to advocate that which he knows must be done and that which he is competent enough to know how to do.

The rest are ignorant mean-spirited incompetents.

The Democratic party can surely find elsewhere within it good candidates that should win.

Thanks, Brand X, I was just going to ask about tonight's debate.
So it looks like Mr Lieberman will be the next to exit. If his campaign can't be productive in NH, he'll have a tough time in SC
I heard a speech today that Gen Clark gave at some college in NH. His audience was polite but very quiet.

Gephardt has freed his delegates, but offered no endorsement.. As for the latest poll-ution, Kerry appears to be continuing his surge, and Clark has shown some upward movement, while Dean continues to decline and the remainder essentially languish in place. Edwards has shown a bit of an uptick, overtaking Lieberman for 4th spot, but that isn't saying too much, given their respective relatively low representation. If anything is going on here, I think it is being shown that Kerry really is The Frontrunner he was supposed to be when the race began, Dean, though wounded, remains a factor, Clark may well be picking up disaffected Deaniacs, Edwards is emerging as a fine Veep candidate, and the rest are wasting time, money, and effort, though providing some marginal benefit in the realm of entertainment. Speaking of entertainment value, did anyone catch Sharpton's miscue on The Federal Reserve? Whatever else may be said of him, his responses last night clearly indicate The Economy and its related considerations and components are not his strong suite.

and I, avoiding any political common sense, remain an advocate of Kucinich.

Yeah, Sharpton veered off on a different dept., then when directed back into the road he stumbled such that I or he coudn't make sense of his rambling.

I agree that Kerry is looking strong and I would say most presidential of the bunch.

Clark still seems so fake to me.

Edwards articulates his case well, as good as Kerry, better than Dean or Clark. I think John is going to be a strong competitor to them til the end.

Dean will struggle from here, his following is nowhere near the mainstream, he just got started first. The hype that surrounded him has faded to just the staunch early supporters.

Has anyone seen the dateline interview with dean and his wife.

it was excellent and just may have revived his campaign assuming enough democrats watched it.

he explained his rant and came off as a very down to earth, direct, capable leader.

unfortunately, that's a lot to ask. I'm not sure just how heavily publicized it was.

I think he can recover somewhat from the rant, but it won't be enough. It looked very unpresidential, a tough thing to overcome completely.