Hint: the total electorate does not actually break up into equal parts of Dems, Reps and Independents.
ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post Polls. Based on 332 surveys of 1,000 or more adults nationwide, conducted from 1981 through Oct. 2003.
"Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or what?" "Democrat" and "Republican" options rotated
___________Annual Averages___________
Democrat Republican Independent Other
Oct. '03: 31% 31% 31% 6%
2002 32 30 30 6
2001 33 30 29 7
2000 33 27 33 3
1999 34 26 33 5
1998 34 26 34 4
1997 35 26 34 5
1996 35 27 34 4
1995 32 28 36 3
1994 34 27 35 3
1993 35 26 35 2
1992 36 28 33 2
1991 33 30 33 2
1990 34 29 33 2
1989 37 29 31 2
1988 37 29 31 2
1987 36 26 35 2
1986 34 29 33 3
1985 35 28 32 3
1984 37 24 35 3
1983 39 23 34 2
1982 38 23 35 3 
NBC News: Kerry wins Iowa caucuses
Edwards strong second; Dean trails; Gephardt may be out MSNBC
MSNBC
Updated: 9:49 p.m. ET Jan. 19, 2004
Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts won the Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses Monday night, NBC News projected based on more then three-quarters of the precincts reporting. Kerry and Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina appeared to break away from the rest of the candidates Monday, running far ahead of Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt, who will drop out of the race Tuesday, aides told MSNBC-TV.
Kerry was drawing support by 38 percent of caucus-goers with 80 percent of the state's 1,993 precincts reporting. Edwards, a senator from North Carolina who gained rapidly in tracking surveys after he forswore the sharp attacks that characterized his rivals' campaigns, was running a strong second at 32 percent.
Dean, the former governor of Vermont, who had been considered the front-runner for the presidential nomination in recent weeks, was well behind at 18 percent, and he acknowledged that Kerry was the likely winner.
"I think Senator Kerry and Senator Edwards did a great job," Dean said in an interview on MSNBC's "Hardball." "We came in third. I would have liked to have come in first, but we didn't. ... I'm very hopeful I'll be back for the general election."
"We're going to New Hampshire, and we're going to win," he said, looking ahead to the first primary in eight days.
Gephardt, the U.S. representative from Missouri who won this contest in 1988, trailed badly with only 11 percent in the partial returns, below the 15 percent threshold required to claim delegates to the state's convention in the summer.
Gephardt, who had said a bad loss here might well end his campaign, had been scheduled to fly to New Hampshire, but he scheduled a news conference for Tuesday in St. Louis, instead. Campaign aides told MSNBC-TV that he would withdraw.
Edwards' campaign manager, Nick Baldick, told MSNBC-TV from New Hampshire: "Now we have the wind at our backs, we have New Hampshire, and we'll meet you in Columbia [S.C.] on February 3rd."
