Poll update:
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm
- In 5 of the last 7 polls Kerry has sunk to on or below "the Sharpton line"; in none of the last 4 polls did Kerry get more than 1% over Sharpton. He's become a bit player, nationally, it seems.
- More unexpectedly, Gephardt seems to be following him. In the very last poll, from Newsweek, Gephardt is down 5% to 5% - two percent below Sharpton. Statistical aberration, or some backlash about that perhaps all-too ferocious anti-Dean ad? In any case, in the three polls
before that, Gephardt also failed to get more than 1% over Sharpton.
That leaves, in all of the last three polls, only Dean, Clark and Lieberman as the remaining major contenders (with Dean scoring twice the numbers of the other three). That wasn't what much anyone was expecting nine months ago, huh? ;-)
- In a head-to-head with Bush (http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm), all three would do about equally badly. In the last Newsweek poll, Bush's lead has increased from 6-9% to 12-13%.
Mind you, there is a silver lining to that last bit. In the CNN/Gallup and NBC/WSJ polls from 3-5 days earlier, that had immediately followed Saddam's capture, Bush's lead on them had jumped from 12-15% to 21-25% (NBC/WSJ), and from 3-8% to 16-23% (CNN/Gallup), respectively. Huge jumps, that took Bush to 20+ points leads. If you look at the last Newsweek poll from that perspective, you could also take away from it that half of the "Saddam bonus" has already dissipated - in less than a week's time.
Still, there hasn't been a poll yet in which any of the Dem candidates was ahead of Bush ...
