Update: Support for Democratic Presidential Candidates by Subgroup
Gallup News Service | November 25, 2003 | Jeffrey M. Jones
The character of the Democratic presidential nomination campaign has changed significantly in recent months. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has emerged as a leading contender, and retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark has shown fairly strong support after entering the race in mid-September. Meanwhile, Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry have seen their support subside. In July, the Gallup Tuesday Briefing analyzed the level of support for each presidential candidate among key subgroups using Gallup Poll data from April to June. An update of the previous analysis shows that as the overall character of the campaign has changed, so have many of the patterns of support by subgroup, especially by age, ideology, education, and race.
Gallup has regularly asked Democrats, and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party, whom they are most likely to support for the party's nomination in 2004. Three recent polls, from Oct. 24-26, Nov. 10-12, and Nov. 14-16, all indicate a relatively tight race with no clear front-runner. The combined polls of 1,343 Democrats and Democratic leaners show Dean at 16% support, Clark at 15%, Lieberman at 14%, and Dick Gephardt at 11%, with all other candidates below 10%. The aggregated data allow for a more in-depth view of candidate support by Democratic subgroup.
Regional Differences
With a crowded field of nine candidates, none of whom is particularly well known among the American public, it is not surprising that regional differences are apparent in the data. The early primaries and caucuses span a range of states from a regional perspective -- including Iowa and Michigan in the Midwest, New Hampshire in the East, South Carolina in the South, and Arizona in the West. This could lead to a more protracted nomination fight than occurred in 1992 or 2000 if different candidates emerge victorious in those early states.
Generally speaking, each candidate does best in his or her home region. Dean, Lieberman, and Kerry, all hailing from New England, are the top three candidates among Democrats in the East (Clark does about as well as Kerry in the East). Missouri Congressman Gephardt, at 20% support, is the leading candidate among Midwestern Democrats. Clark, who hails from Arkansas, receives 16% support in the South, putting him in a virtual tie with Lieberman and Dean in that region. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who some statewide polls suggest is in the lead in South Carolina, reaches double digits in his home region. In the West, the only region that is not home to any candidate, Dean gets 20% support and Clark 17%.
Gender Differences
Democratic men and women show slight differences in candidate support. By a 19% to 12% margin, men are more likely than women to support Clark. Similarly, men show slightly higher levels of support for Gephardt (15% to 9%). Dean and Kerry score about the same among Democratic men and women, while Lieberman scores slightly better among women than among men.
Racial Differences
In June, a special Gallup Poll of blacks showed the Rev. Al Sharpton as the No. 1 choice for the Democratic Party presidential nomination in this group. In the latest data, Sharpton continues to be blacks' top choice, though his level of support has slipped from 24% in June to 17% now. Currently, Lieberman does as well among black Democrats as Sharpton does. Former Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley Braun, the other black candidate, also reaches double-digit support among black Democrats. Dean seems to have gained most among blacks since the summer, going from 3% to 10%. Only 5% of blacks currently support Clark, and just 3% support Kerry.
Dean and Clark are the leading choices among white Democrats, with Gephardt, Lieberman, and Kerry all scoring in double-digits. Only 1% of whites support Sharpton, whose support is almost exclusively among blacks.
Age Differences
The July analysis revealed a definite age gap among Gephardt supporters, with older Democrats supporting him much more than younger Democrats did. That pattern continues today, as just 4% of Democrats in the 18-to-29 age range support Gephardt, compared with at least 12% in all other age groups, including 18% of Democrats age 65 and older. That may not necessarily be a problem for the Gephardt campaign as older Americans are much more likely to vote than younger Americans.
Gephardt and Clark are the leading choices among Democrats age 65 and older. Clark does significantly better among senior Democrats (19%) than among those in the 18-to-29 age range (11%). Dean's support is relatively consistent across age groups.
Educational Differences
The data reveal some rather large educational differences in candidate preferences, and considerable change among educational groups since July. Among Democrats who graduated from college, 28% say they are supporting Dean, nearly double that of the second-place candidate among this group (Clark at 16%). Dean's appeal to more highly educated Democrats helps explain his tremendous advantage in fundraising over the other candidates (as education is highly correlated with income), and is a positive sign for his campaign since more highly educated people are more likely to vote.
Lieberman, Clark, Dean, and Gephardt are all within four percentage points of each other among Democrats with some college education and those with a high school education or less.
In the July analysis, Kerry had the support of 21% of college graduates and Lieberman 19%, so both candidates have lost supporters among this group while Dean's support has surged from 10% to 28%. Lieberman, at 27%, was the clear leader among Democrats with some college education in the earlier analysis, so his support has declined considerably among this group as well.
Ideological Differences
The candidates' ideologies may be coming into sharper focus as the campaign progresses. The candidates' standings were relatively consistent across ideological groups in the July analysis. Now, among liberal Democrats, Dean is the clear leader at 26%, nearly double the level of support of any other candidate among this group. Clark, Lieberman, and Kerry are all supported by 11% to 14% of liberal Democrats.
Among moderate Democrats, no clear leader emerges. Clark, Dean, Gephardt, and Lieberman all range between 13% and 16% support. With the exception of Dean, those same candidates are most often supported by conservative Democrats, with Lieberman at 15%, Gephardt at 14%, and Clark at 13%. Only 7% of conservative Democrats are supporting Dean.
Attention Paid to the Campaign
Dean also emerges as a front-runner when looking at the results among Democrats who are following the campaign closely (this campaign attention question was only asked in the Nov. 14-16 poll). Among Democrats who say they are currently following news about the candidates "very" or "somewhat closely," 25% support Dean. That puts him eight points ahead of Lieberman and nine points ahead of Clark among attentive Democrats. Gephardt and Kerry trail by slightly larger margins, and only 4% of attentive Democrats support Edwards. Attentiveness to the campaign is a factor that often influences voter turnout, so these results are another positive sign for the Dean campaign.
Bottom Line
The Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary are about two months away, and still no clear front-runner exists on a national level for the Democratic presidential nomination. Unless one candidate wins all or most of the key early contests and is able to produce a bandwagon effect, the regional differences evident here suggest that the nomination campaign could be extended at least until March, after which only a few contests remain. At this point, Dean and Clark appear to have the broadest appeal, though Dean's (and to a lesser extent, Gephardt's and Clark's) standing among some subgroups more inclined to vote is a plus for his campaign. Of course, as campaign events unfold, the relative standings of the candidates could change dramatically.
