There's no denying that foreign policy concerns, particularly as relate to Iraq and The War On Terror, give Bush difficulty, and Democrats hope, in The Opinion Poll War. However, there is no denying a tilt toward the Republican Party by The Electorate. Republicans, following the unprecedented '02 gains, now control both Legislative Houses, and in both have fewer at-risk seats going into '04, while having the advantage of incumbency in the majority of contests to be decided in the coming election. With Republican victories in three of this year's four gubernatorial contests, and a fourth GOP pickup, in Louisiana this weekend likely (
Jindal 10-Point Lead ), have decidedly tipped the balance of Statehouses in Republican favor since 2000. For the first time since the 1930s, more State Legislatures are in Republican control than Democrat, and again, in state legislatures, the Republicans have fewer at-risk seats going into '04 while enjoying the advantage of a majority of Republican governors. Nationwide, registered voters identifying themselves as Republicans now total 31%, with Democrats at 32%, a 7 point shift to the GOP since 2000. Pointedly, Republicans have made significant gains both in states that narrowly went to Gore in 2000 and in those which showed small Bush margins, while consolidating leads in states that were clearly in the Bush camp last time around. Republican gains have been spread across all demographics, with an 8% pickup of Hispanics, America's fastest growing minority. According to one major pollster, quoted in
The Washington Times, "Republicans are in much better shape than they were four years ago," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center." A Democrat pollster, quoted in a lengthy
CBS News article entitled "The Emerging Republican Majority", observes that
Quote:"In terms of the percentage of voters who identify themselves as Democrats, the Democratic party is currently in its weakest position since the dawn of the New Deal."
Mark Penn, Democratic Pollster" ...
That article opines
Quote: ... Realignment is already here, and well advanced. In 1964, Barry Goldwater cracked the Democratic lock on the South. In 1968 and 1972, Republicans established a permanent advantage in presidential races. In the big bang of realignment, 1994, Republicans took the House and Senate and wiped out Democratic leads in governorships and state legislatures. Now, realignment has reached its entrenchment phase. Republicans are tightening their grip on Washington and erasing their weakness among women and Latinos. The gender gap now exposes Democratic weakness among men. Sure, an economic collapse or political shock could reverse these gains. But that's not likely
and concludes
Quote:Nothing is guaranteed in politics. The political future is never a straight-line projection of the present. And the ascendant party always hits bumps in the road. Democrats were dominant from 1932 to 1994, but they lost major elections in 1938, 1946, and 1952. Now, Republicans are stronger than at any time in at least a half-century and probably since the 1920s. Realignment has already happened, and there's no reason to pretend otherwise.
A recent
Harvard study showed also that nationwide, Republican sentiment among college students, traditionally a Democratic bloc, is now in the majority, interestigly, BTW, also revealing that a majority of college students are pro-life and see that issue as a key concern. It should be noted too that while the Democrats have been vigorously campaigning against Bush for over a year, the Republican campaign, with its immense warchest, has yet to begin, and will not fully ramp up untill a Democrat Presidential Candidate has been nominated. The apparent dominance of Dean among the feild of hopefuls, may bode ill for Demcrats, as a National Journal study quoted in
The Mineapolis Star-Tribune observes
Quote:Predictions vs. preferences
The National Journal has been taking a weekly survey of 50 Democratic insiders to ask who they consider most likely to win the party's presidential nomination. This week, for the third straight week, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean was a runaway winner, with 36 of the 50 insiders agreeing that he is the most likely nominee.
But the journal is also asking the insiders every week which Democratic challenger would have the best chance of defeating President Bush. On that basis, Dean falls almost to the bottom of the pack. Only four of the insiders said Dean would be the party's strongest candidate. The winner on that question was Rep. Dick Gephardt (16 of the insiders picked him), followed by retired Gen. Wesley Clark (nine) and Sen. John Kerry (five). Dean and Sens. Joe Lieberman and John Edwards were tied with four insiders picking each of them as the most likely to beat Bush.
There is much fervor among Democrat Activists currently, but little reason for Democrat optimism. While Bush and a "Generic Democrat" poll roughly equally, no announced Democrat candidate polls better than Bush head-to-head. Republican gains over the past few years cannot be ignored or wished away. The future is a matter of conjecture, but the ddds, as demonstrated by clearly evident and well established trend momentum, mitigate against Democrat success. One might conclude the greatest challenge facing Democrats today are Democrats themselves.
(Am I wrong about this? I may well only see it that way because of my personal bias. Having written it, I wonder whether there's any truth to it, or it's just my skewed perception of reality.) 