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2004 Elections: Democratic Party Contenders

 
 
BillW
 
  1  
Reply Wed 17 Sep, 2003 12:55 pm
Quote:
Hint to Demmos-- It not enough to know what National Security is...


You got to be able to know how to mispronounce
it.......
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Wed 17 Sep, 2003 01:59 pm
Given the unusual circumstances of the situations in California and Texas, along with what could become a TV-and-Tabloid Democratic Candidate winnowing, The Nation's Political Awareness might be elevated now and growning, which would call for an uncharachteristically robust election turnout, even the Primaries. If so, that does not bode particularly well for the Republicans, just by historical precedent. I suspect it may prove to be the case. Judging from the internecine nastiness already evident on "Official Websites" of some very notable Democrats, I suspect this will devolve into a fight of Democratic Vituperation against Republican Money, in the long run. I'm sure many will find much more dismay in the process itself as it unfolds than in the outcome, whatever that may be.
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PDiddie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 17 Sep, 2003 02:08 pm
Sofia wrote:
That being, I'm not interested in anything other than MJ proving her assertion.


I'm sure she'll be along shortly. Her post history indicates she hasn't been here since Monday, lunchtime.

Perhaps you could take her silence as not having read you yet?
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Tartarin
 
  1  
Reply Wed 17 Sep, 2003 02:52 pm
That's interesting, Lola. I've promised myself to go "independent" if my candidate turns out to be a DNC critter, have sent them nary a dime (only angry letters) this time around. I think they are totally bad news, represent corruption to this Dem.
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Sofia
 
  1  
Reply Wed 17 Sep, 2003 02:53 pm
A distinct possibility. I am not at war with MJ. But, right ot wrong, nimh's response had me scrambing fighters. :wink:

Looking forward to hearing Clark in debates. Wonder if the other Dem candidates will bring up his military record. Also wonder what McAuliffe is saying to them privately.

Will Teddy and Feinstein's endorsement of Kerry bring the DLC behind Kerry?...

BillW-- Laughing
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BillW
 
  1  
Reply Wed 17 Sep, 2003 02:53 pm
When it's Republican it is okay and politics as usual, when it's Democrat it's evil and abusive <sigh>
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 17 Sep, 2003 03:03 pm


Interesting poll again, thanks. Two things struck me.

When asked, "Which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2004", those candidates who are already known by more people of course have an advantage. People who will know Lieberman and Gephardt but none of the rest will by definition choose one of them (if they choose any), and unlike people who cant name any, their preference will count in the poll. In that sense it can be interesting to compare the support:name recognition ratio. I.e.:

Lieberman -
73% has an opinion about him - 23% would choose him.
Sharpton
65% - 4%
Gephardt
64% - 13%
Kerry
56% - 9%
Graham
50% - 6%
Dean
43% - 11%
Clark
42% - 2%
Edwards
38% - 5%
Mosely-Braun
35% - 4%
Kucinich
22% - 1%

That ratio still looks relatively good for Lieberman, also good for Dean, less good for Gephardt, Kerry and Edwards, and very bad for Sharpton, Kucinich and Wesley Clark.

When the Democrats and Democrat-leaners were asked what kind of policies they would like the winner of the primaries to espouse, they predictably preferred a moderate over a liberal and a repeal only of the tax cuts for the rich, rather than of all tax cuts - good news for the Lieberman like. But:

"If you had to choose, would you rather see the Democrats nominate someone for president in 2004 who supported or opposed the U.S. decision to go to war with Iraq?"

Supported
41%
Opposed
54%
No opinion
5%
0 Replies
 
Sofia
 
  1  
Reply Wed 17 Sep, 2003 03:12 pm
PDiddie--

Timber dissects Clark's history a bit around page 76.

Same as Timber's link from page 76 of this thread.

So, it is my opinion, based on a lot of written commentary about Clark's decision as commander of troops.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 17 Sep, 2003 03:21 pm
Oh, one last post about the popular perception of this or that President as a competent or great President or not - just cause I happened to come across this poll Q just now (its from the 3-4/9 Time/CNN poll, see www.pollingreport.com again):

"In your view, is George W. Bush one of our greatest presidents, a good but not great president, an average president, or a poor president?"

Sep 2003 compared to December 2001

One of Our Greatest 9% (-6%)
Good 28% (-12%)
Average 39% (+4%)
Poor 23% (+17%)
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 17 Sep, 2003 03:33 pm
nimh, Poll numbers change all the time; don't rely on one poll to tell the picture of any present or future presidents.
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au1929
 
  1  
Reply Wed 17 Sep, 2003 04:01 pm
nimh
Polls in reality are only a snapshot in time. We will have to leave it for history to judge the Bush presidency.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 17 Sep, 2003 04:12 pm
au1929 wrote:
Polls in reality are only a snapshot in time.


I realise that; thats why the above post concerned no more and no less than what it announced: "the popular perception of this or that President (in casu Bush Jr.) as a competent or great President" - and of course that perception will change over time. All poll numbers by definition do, s never stopped us from posting any before.
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BillW
 
  1  
Reply Wed 17 Sep, 2003 04:14 pm
even if that time lapse is one second........
0 Replies
 
Ethel2
 
  1  
Reply Wed 17 Sep, 2003 11:48 pm
Tartarin,

I'm for defeating Bush, he's such a grave danger to the world. I don't feel it's wise to push certain (while very important) points too far. Bush and his handlers are very dangerous in my opinion and I only wish we could get together to defeat them. Can you be more specific about the corruption you see in the DNC? You may have already done so, but I've been otherwise occupied up to now. If you have done so already, could you please provide a link? Thanks
0 Replies
 
Italgato
 
  1  
Reply Thu 18 Sep, 2003 12:27 am
Mr. Nimh agrees that polls are just a snapshot in time. I agree. I have found in the past that the left wing views them as a snapshot in time when the polls do not reflect their views but change their perception of polls when they agree with the left wing leaners.

Nevertheless, I am fascinated by the view of polls held by William Jefferson Clinton.

According to Bob Woodward, in his book, Shadow, P. 336

"At one point Clinton said that as a practical matter the country didn't have elections any more. What they had were photographs of public opinion polls, a kind of over-the counter market quotation of the polls in an ongoing partisan war that would last all four years/ But the numbers in those polls were the most important numbers in the world for Clinton>"

If Clinton said it, it must be true!!!!!
0 Replies
 
Italgato
 
  1  
Reply Thu 18 Sep, 2003 12:32 am
Au 1929 is correct. History will judge.

The other day, I posted a listing made by Professional Historians on C-span. That listing gave the No. 1 rating to Abraham Lincoln.

Harry S. Truman was fifth.

Ronald Reagan- Eleventh-

George Herbert Walker Bush- Twentieth

Willliam Jefferson Clinton- Twenty First.

Yes, I do believe that Au 1929( many others have said the same thing), History will judge George W, Bush as History has judged the Presidents above.
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PDiddie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 18 Sep, 2003 03:33 am
I've read some interesting things lately which have reminded me of other interesting things:

David Brooks, in the New York Times, wrote:
I called eight of the best G.O.P. pollsters and strategists and asked them, on a not-for-attribution basis, if they thought Howard Dean would be easier to beat than the other major Democratic presidential candidates ...

You would have thought I had asked them if Danny DeVito would be easier to beat in a one-on-one basketball game than Shaquille O'Neal. They all thought Dean would be easier to beat, notwithstanding his impressive rise.

Republicans for Dean

Uncle Remus, long ago, wrote:

Joel Chandler Harris

Br'er Rabbit and the Tar Baby
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Thu 18 Sep, 2003 03:41 am
Re: Sofia, Mamajuana, 9/11 and Saddam. (Hah - never thought someone could bunch those names together like that, huh;?-)

I'm still thinking about this - it's still occupying me.

First, I realised I took a long detour to make my point, when there was also a simple straightforward answer.

MJ wrote: it is a "well-established fact" that there was no link; Sofia wrote back, prove it. Well, US Congress exhaustively researched all the aspects and links concerning the 9/11 attacks. It couldnt find evidence of any link, whatsoever, that incriminated the Saddam regime in any way. In the entire 900 page tome of a report, Saddam's Iraq is only mentioned twice; once on a link that was shown wrong, and once on a link that didnt go nowhere, was based on no evidence. Thats it. It was researched, exhaustively, by your own Congress no less - and nothing was found. I dont know if thats "well-established fact" enough. The NRC newspaper here concluded, in any case, that "The 900 page report, on which members of the Senate and the House have worked together, also confirms that there is no connection between the terrorist network Al-Qaeda [..] and the Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein", so MJ seems to be in good company.

Then there's the detour I made. I was reading an article this morning, about a wholly unrelated matter, and I recognised my argument: yes - thats what I meant.

The article concerned a parliamentary debate here between two people you luckily wont know: Donner, the Christian-Democrat Minister of Justice, and Eerdmans, the speaker of the List Fortuyn party. You might know that a politician was shot here last year, Pim Fortuyn; Eerdman's party is named after him. The perpetrator has been identified: Volkert van der Graaf, an environmentalist who apparently wanted to save Holland from the new right-wing danger. Now the List Fortuyn cant believe that something so shattering can really have been the work of this one guy. They speak of vast conspiracies, involving much of "the left-wing church", or the Dutch secret service, or foreign agents. They ask why Fortuyn wasnt protected better (answer: because he declined to be). Now Parliament installed a commission last year which extensively investigated the matter. It published a tome of a report, which was then accepted by Parliament (including the List Fortuyn). It concluded that the protection had been imperfect, but that none of the suggested secret service links et cetera was born out by any proof.

Now here Eerdmans is, debating Donner, insisting that there is no proof that the secret service wasnt tapping Fortuyn's phone, that we dont know what all might have happened. Donner rebuked him sternly. Quote: "it is impossible to prove someone was not involved". But there has been a report, all the links suggested thus far have been researched, they came up with naught, the List Fortuyn accepted the report. "If you want to keep the book open", Donner reprimanded Eerdmans, "at least do it in a dignified manner". Continuing to raise the spectre of various involvements if you have no new evidence to underbuild such links, whatsoever, is undignified - irresponsible, was the message implied.

This is what the "well established fact" is about, in my view (and you may prefer to talk only to MJ, Sofia, but if you insist that only she should have answered your point you should have sent a PM). Not just a bunch of journalists, but Congress itself researched 9/11, and every link to Saddam's Iraq that had been suggested by government circles was shown to have no base in evidence, whatsoever. Well-established fact, that. Bush's Republicans accepted this report too. To now keep going on that there "might well have been a link" without providing any new evidence on the matter, is undignified, and its a shame you have no Donner to point that out to your Cheney. When he can share new evidence with us, then we can always still "open the book" again.
0 Replies
 
Italgato
 
  1  
Reply Thu 18 Sep, 2003 03:51 am
Why Mr. Nimh is absolutely correct.

There is no PROVEN link between Saddam and AlQaeda.

They are both enemies of the USA but there is no proven link between them.

Mr. Nimh is correct to point out the lack of any empirical evidence to show that there is or was a tie between the two.

Unfortunately, one of last month's polls showed that over 60% of the American People thought that there was indeed a link between Saddam and Al Qaeda. I would guess that shows that the American people are not tuned in to nuance.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Thu 18 Sep, 2003 04:09 am
Why, Italgato, I say - we agree again - on both counts! Very Happy
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