2004 Elections: Democratic Party Contenders

nimh

I think it is significant. I'm sure (mama and tartarin could verify) that no poll since 9-11 has turned this corner. And the specific question asked and answered here seems to me to be particularly important.

I concur with Blatham, it also seems now that our casualty numbers have reached the point that as many US lives have been lost since the Bush speech that he supposedly ended the war as prior to his speech, people are tired to the same old crap.

OK - understood.

Dys, You are likely right with the "same old crap" theory. Which troubles me. We've all expressed our disapproval about the "short attention span." It doesn't trouble me any less even when it works to my political advantage. To see someone I regard as a criminal finally voted out of office simply because people are bored with him/his policies would not be gratifying.

Well - first, to sophia, and to keep it clear. We have been going against each other, and cheering each other on for quite a while, and on many issues. I suspect we will continue to do so. From my side, it's fun. I respect her opinions (don't agree), get testy (but then, I'm older), and for me it's really good to know that sofia is fighting and thinking there on the other side. A welcome change from some others. Sofia - you sure you're not changing a wee bit? And do understand - the Wellstone topic is a delicate and sore one for us.

Blatham. I think the answer to your question is yes. And the Newsweek poll has been one of those most quoted by repubs, because they've liked their figures. A few months back, Andrew Kohut, of the Pew Research group, said that if Bush got down to 50%, he was in trouble. And when you break down this poll, it's not just Iraq. The public is very concerned about the economy, the healthcare, and yes, the environment. These are all issues on which Bush has been noticeably weak. The Rove committee direction has obviously been to glamorize and romanticize Bush's appearance as CinC, and for that they needed a successful war. And also, it looks like the respect and sentiments of some other parts of the world are beginning to be more important to Americans than they first said. Other polls should be making appearances soon.

But certain things are in the air, and are there to look at. The situation in Texas has taken on an air of desperation, and the repubs don't look good. The CA play seems to have a mind of its own. I heard tonight that certain other leading repubs refuse to step down, and Bustamante is gaining strength. Ashcroft is going around making ill-received speeches for his Patriot Acts, while Justice Kennedy seems to be making speeches in which he disagrees with Ashcroft positions.

And this is a time where Bush could appear stronger and more in control if he went to Washington, and met and talked with leaders and a lot of other people. His staying in Crawford and only emerging for fund-raisers gives a distinctly paler cast to his role.

Dean? Maybe he's the one on message, and the others are off. How else do they explain the pull? One of the big strengths has been the meet-ups, which are face-toface meets with him, a chance to listen, and to ask questions, which he answers. If all these people - and they're a diverse bunch - come, and stay, and get more people to come - it's obvious they see something there they like and want. The way I studied it, that's electable.

I"m glad, because I picked Howard Dean when he wasn't so popular. He seems to be picking up momentum, and those are all good signs. I only hope he can keep it up. c.i.

mamajuana--

Hi!

The pointed response--> I have seen lots of allusions to dark suspicions on the board about Wellstone's end. I do think it is fair game to ask someone straight out about all such inferences--and will always do it when I'm curious. I also felt it was unfair (for want of a better word) to act as though I was somehow breaking some rule by asking. In this, I was grateful for nimh sharing his views, as they did mirror mine.

By the same token, you and Tartar had the same right to say what you thought about it--whether I agreed with what you said or not. Its all about opinions.

Bottom line: I am glad you're having fun duelling and cheering! I feel the same way. I continue to admire you for the way you speak your mind. I hope you wouldn't prefer less from me.

You've got sort of a Wellstone thing going on. I didn't agree with the majority of his opinions, but he wasn't your average partisan. I had a favorable view of his personality, the content of his character, and the sincerity of where he came upon his views.

Now a player, Dean raises campaign goals The 'anti-war' guy Hard-hitting on defense

...To chants of "lies, lies,'' Dean said Bush's reasons for the Iraq war were illegitimate, that he had failed to stand up to the Saudis on terrorism and refused to talk to Kim Jong-il simply because he did not like the North Korean leader.

Dean told reporters traveling on his 10-city "Sleepless Summer'' tour that he considered campaigning in Texas a challenge. He is the only Democratic contender to have bought television air time in Austin, running ads earlier in the month critical of Bush's stewardship of the economy and national security.

He said he knew the president when they both served as governors: Dean of tiny, rural Vermont, and Bush of Texas.

"I liked him,'' Dean said. ``I thought then we could do business. I was shocked at what he did after he became president. I thought he'd govern as the compassionate conservative he campaigned as.''

In a speech sprinkled with bluntly partisan attacks on Bush leavened with occasional dashes of irony, Dean even turned the president's own 2000 campaign rhetoric on its head.

Instead of Bush's pledge to restore "honor and dignity'' to the White House, Dean promised to "restore the honor and dignity and respect this country deserves around the rest of the world.''Recent polls have put Dean at the head of the nine Democrats vying for their party's nomination.

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/politics/politics-politics-dean.html

*THUD*

The Austin American Statesman reports on a quick pit-stop Dean made in Austin yesterday afternoon before going on to San Antonio:


...Dean also challenged Bush to get tougher with Saudi Arabia, a nation Dean thinks Bush will not challenge because of America's dependence on Middle Eastern oil.

"We ought to be able to confront the Saudis, and this president doesn't have the backbone to do it," he said.

As he laid it on thick, Dean stopped and told the crowd, "If I do win the nomination, I won't get away with talking like this eight months from now; gotta to be presidential."

For the record, I find it very strange the coincidences between the deaths of Wellstone in 2002 and Carnahan from Missouri in 2000!

From the Zogby polls:




President George W. Bush’s job performance rating has slipped to 52% positive, 48% negative, according to a poll of 1,011 likely U.S. voters by Zogby International. From a post-September 11th peak of 82%, his rating has slipped steadily with the exception of a slight increase following the official end of the war in Iraq.

Bush Job Performance
Event
Positive %
Negative %

August 16-19, 2003
Current
52
48

July 16-17, 2003
Current
53
46

June 10, 2003
Post Iraqi War
58
41

March 16, 2003
Pre Iraqi War
54
45

September 25, 2002
One year Post 9/11
64
36

September 23, 2001
Post 9/11
82
17

August 27, 2001
Pre 9/11
50
49

April 26, 2001
100 Days in Office
52
44

January 16, 2001
Pre Inauguration
42
36


The ‘down’ trend is also seen in the percent of likely voters who say it’s time for someone new in the White House (48%), compared to 45% who said the President deserves to be re-elected.


Date
Re-Elect %
Someone New %

August 16-19, 2003
45
48

July 16-17, 2003
46
47

June 10, 2003
49
38

January 27, 2003
49
41

October 25, 2002
49
35

September 25, 2002
49
38



Nearly three in five (58%) respondents say they have a favorable opinion of the President as a person, while 40% say their opinion is unfavorable. In July polling, his rating was 57% favorable, 42% unfavorable.

Date
% Favorable
% Unfavorable

August 16-19, 2003
58
40

July 16-17, 2003
57
42

January 27, 2003
66
33

July 22, 2002
72
25

April 5, 2002
82
17

July 30, 2001
57
36

February 15, 2001
64
14


Just over two in five (43%) likely voters say they would choose President Bush over a Democratic candidate, and a like number (43%) preferred a Democrat if the election were held today, compared to July polling by Zogby International where 48% would choose Bush and 43% would favor any Democrat.

The Zogby America poll involved 1,011 likely voters selected randomly from throughout the 48 contiguous states using listed residential telephone numbers. Polling was conducted from Zogby International’s Call Center in Utica, NY on August 16-19, 2003. The poll has a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.2%.

Additional tracking information can be seen at www.zogby.com, Trends Over Time

Time for another war?

Well, and we have the report on the WMD's coming out in September... Ritter's op-ed piece in yesterday's Times will set that up nicely...

This administraiton keeps reminding the American people about "terrorism," just in case our memory begins to forget. That's the "only" issue on which this president enjoys a high rating. c.i.

Joined the "University of Colorado Students for Howard Dean, today." Aren't I just the little political animal!

way to Go Hobitbob!

From the Dean blog ( http://www.blogforamerica.com ) this morning:


"...Thank you!
What an indescribable Sleepless Summer.

I spent the night at a college friend's apartment here in New York -- and the morning going back again over the photos from the Sleepless Summer Tour (here -- New York isn't up yet).

How to describe the electricity at Bryant Park? It was one of those moments that you want to hold on to for a long, long time. I wandered around the crowd beforehand, asking people why they were there -- "because he will tell me the truth," "because I am scared of where this country is going and he has that leadership," "because he has taken a strong position on disability rights," "because I want to learn more, but so far he seems to get it" "because I wanted to see the next President of the United States," "because he speaks for me, he speaks for us," "because the campaign makes me hopeful," "because of the people here," "because I believe he will make America a better community." I met several couples where one person was undecided and the other a strong Dean supporter, bringing their spouse or boyfriend along to engage them.

Thank you to everyone who rallied, who gave, who posted on this blog, and especially to those who brought new people into the campaign.

Over 92,000 people -- 92,010 -- have now signed up for the September 3rd Meetup. (This Meetup takes outreach to the next level -- make sure you go.)

330,934 Americans have now joined the campaign, and we have just 35 days to reach our goal of 450,000.

We all know there are millions of people, let alone 120,000, who would want to be part of what we all are doing.

Please, seize this moment and write an email to at least 10 friends today, telling them about why you are here and asking them to join us. Whether you contributed, attended one of the rallies, were here on the blog, went flyering in your community, were meeting people through the Get Local events, or simply talked to people you met on the subway about Dean, you were an integral part of these last four days, and your stories are what will make this campaign grow.

My friend, who has worked on over a half dozen campaigns, just poked his head up around the corner to where I'm typing to say -- "the people on the blog ... it's amazing ... its not really possible. You couldn't make up what they are writing. I'm so unprepared for that lack of cynicism. It's unbelievable."

You are unbelievable. Thank you.

Posted by Zephyr Teachout at 10:23 AM

They made their million. Million plus! I was afraid they might not this time.