The most obvious fact about the contemporary American political landscape is its profound polarization.
(Too much alliteration, I know. There will be more of that in a minute...)
And that is just about the last thing the president has going for him.
There are forty-plus percent of the electorate on both sides that will stick with their guy, and that party, simply because he opposes the other side.
I think that's one of the few things keeping the president's approval ratings as high as they are. No quantity of bad news, lies, obfuscation, or mischevious mismanagement by their handlers ("Get out of the way, Emily") seems to have any effect on the enthusiasm of the supporters of the administration.
In fact, injecting caustic partisanship at this time will, I believe, steady the president and
perhaps even help him in his current condition. As a result, every time I see one of Bush's negative ads followed by one of Kerry's positive ones, I smile.
For now it's
de rigeur for the Democrats to have Bush be the focus -- almost exclusively -- of attention. There is, I think, a coalescing sense that President Bush is
a failed president -- that key and grave decisions he has made have been wrong and that his leadership and management have been deeply flawed on many fronts.
As the lukewarm support for the Republicans melts away, those votes don't automatically transfer to the Dems, reflecting the polarity the electorate feels. The polls all reflect this too, and the perplexed state of the mainstream pundritry over the circumstance is also a source of amusement: "The President's approval ratings are sinking like a stone in the ocean, but it isn't translating into support for Senator Kerry..."
"Duh..."
Who thinks there's a single voter in the homeland who's going to just switch from Bush to Kerry without spending some time in Undecidedland?
As John Zogby has already written, this race is now Kerry's to lose.
And more importantly, the decisions John Kerry makes from now until November will determine a course of American history -- one radically divergent from its present one -- for the next ten to forty years.
I remain convinced -- and am more encouraged every single day -- that we are capable of making the correct choice, just a short 5 1/2 months away now.