Is Rumsfeld trying to provoke North Korea?

A typical Asherman well-thought, well-reasoned, well-presented, thought provoking response. I shall return when the thoughts provoked sort themselves into communicable terms.



timber

Asherman, Some Chinese in the smaller townships are uprising against their government because of high taxes. Something we didn't see before. IMHO, this is the beginning of the Chinese governments downfall, and I see a different landscape in China ten years from now. China has also been working to improve their social overhead capital. Many new highways are being built. Even the international airport in Beijing, built during the past five years, is a big improvement over what they had only ten years ago. China has also orderred many airplanes from Boeing which will expand their transportation of goods and people. With that expansion will come more capitalistic and democratic freedoms. Their control on communication will have less meaning and control. I doubt China's government is in a position to reverse this trend. Your observation concerning the over abundance of men vs women will become a problem soon. I'm not sure how they will control nature, and HIV/AIDS will become more of a problem. In 2004, the Yangtse will be flooded, and many millions of people will be displaced. I'm not sure that the government has made adequate plans to move all these people to safe havens where they can continue their economic acitivities. I don't think the government is in a position to subisidize so many at one stroke of the flooding. I see much chaos for the people now living in the flood zones. I think China will be battling too many domestic fronts for them to become a threat to their neighbors any time soon. Many in China are still living the same way their ancestors lived thousands of years ago, so the one billion population can be misinterpreted in many ways. Many farmers still use oxen to plow their fields. There's a huge contrast between the people of Beijing, Shanghai, etc., etc., and the farmers lives. I don't think that's about to change any time soon. c.i.

Great and rapid change carries with it an increased risk of destabilization. The Secret Societies have always been strongest in the rural areas, and may again be an important element in revolutionary change. These conditions seem to make you optimistic that China will become less of a threat to the world in the future.

I think you're wrong. The power elite is just as eager to hold onto power as Kim is on the penninsula. In order to maintain their power they believe they need to keep and even tighten social controls. You can only hold change back by force for a limited time, and then when the dam breaks there is flood. Social controls also tend to weaken during times of great peril -- such as famine and epidemic. What do you think the effects will be if either breaks out in a serious fashion within the PRC?

Not mentioned in my earlier posting are signs that the Chinese may be more willing to expand than they have traditionally been. Chinese intelligence is very active, with many ethnic Han recruited around the world to spy and acquire technology.

My grandson seems to h ave infected everyone here with a cold, so hasta la vista, baby.

Asherman - can you tell us what are the sources of your beliefs re the secret societies, greater willingness to expand and recruitment of ethnic Chinese around the world to spy?

Hope the cold is a weak one!

Asherman
I suppose one could have said the same thing about the Soviet Union about 15 or so years ago. The chinese are being exposed to and reaping the benifits of capitalism. Let's call it creeping capitalism.
As for NK I believe it presents as great a threat to the Chinese,Russians,Japanese and South Koreans as it does to the US and they will do whatever they can to reduce the friction in the area As for Rumsfeld I am of the opinion that he needs to tone down his rhetoric and stop acting like a school yard bully.

Hold Your Nose and Negotiate

By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF

President Bush finally turns out to have a clear, forceful plan to deal with North Korea's defying the West by restarting its nuclear warhead assembly line.
The plan is to invade Iraq.
The White House is trying to play down the crisis on the Korean Peninsula so that it can focus public attention on Iraq instead. But North Korea raises risks that Iraq does not — because it already has a couple of nuclear weapons, as well as artillery and missiles that can dump nerve gas on American military bases in Asia, and Taepodong missiles that can drop nuclear warheads on Alaska and, soon, the lower 48 states.


http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/20/opinion/20KRIS.html?todaysheadlines

Hold Your Nose and Negotiate

By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF

President Bush finally turns out to have a clear, forceful plan to deal with North Korea's defying the West by restarting its nuclear warhead assembly line.
The plan is to invade Iraq.
The White House is trying to play down the crisis on the Korean Peninsula so that it can focus public attention on Iraq instead. But North Korea raises risks that Iraq does not -- because it already has a couple of nuclear weapons, as well as artillery and missiles that can dump nerve gas on American military bases in Asia, and Taepodong missiles that can drop nuclear warheads on Alaska and, soon, the lower 48 states.


http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/20/opinion/20KRIS.html?todaysheadlines

The Chinese if for nothing but their population are a Global Player. I put great store in their desire for economic development, but I acknowledge the potential for domestic upheaval, particularly in the face of widespread natural calamity. The prospect is most unsettling in its plausibility.

The Power Elite are typical of despots everywhere, everywhen. They seek not to encourage, foster, husband, and nurture a society, but to control it. As dissent was once a affront to the gods, it is an affront to an Authoritarian State. Either case calls for draconian response lest the entire enterprise crumble. In China, The Maoists arose from and supplanted the influence of Marxist/Leninist Thought. The Cultural Revolution was a traumatic socio-economic event which was the natural consequence of the shift to Maoism, a consequence not without unanticipated effect. Meshing Mercantilism with current Chinese Political Philosophy will not be done without surprises, and despots typically are not fond of surprises of any sort. Despots tend to be pretty Gung-Ho for the Staus Quo, somewhat resistant to change. The Internet and Collective Farms are going to be troublesome to integrate. The Internet has a decided edge. The dissemination and exchange of information is a most powerful tool. It will shape China more than China will shape it. There is strong possibility of upheaval as significant, if very different from, The Cultural Revolution.

I believe the Chinese People, particularly The Power Elite, have drawn a lesson from the Post-War Economic Miracle of Japan. While China has been struggling heroicly to drag herself kicking and screaming into The Developed World, Japanese transistors have gained far more than Japanese troops ever could have. Considering themselves to have been signicant factor in the military besting of Japan a while back, the Chinese may be inclining toward trying to emulate her old adversary's tactics. As younger replacements for the Power Elite take over the posts of retiring or otherwise inactive members of the group, the Chinese will be swept into the World Community ... provided the process is not interupted by such inconvenience as War, Famine, and Pestillence. My current assessment is that China is quite aware that she must contend with and overcome all three.

I see Chinese Espionage directed more to techno-economic development than to old fashioned imperialist geographic expansion. I believe China is at least beginning to perceive there is more to be had from the boardroom than from the battlefield. In the current matter, I would imagine China will bring considerable pressure to bear on NK, and not just diplomatic or economic pressure. As NK persists in tweaking The West, expect there to be some realignment of Chinese Air/Land Warfare Capability. The Chinese of course will assert patently prudent, purely defensive intent. In a bit of brinksmanship themselves, the Chinese may very well see secure advantage in showing Kim how a master plays the game. The risk is small; confronted militarily by The West and China simultaneously, Kim very soon exits, one way or another. The only question to be resolved would be the matter of the magnitude of destruction suffered by NK. China sees her interest served by peace in the region, which, among other things, comes without massive Western Military Presence in the neighborhood. It doesn't look good for Kim. The Chinese are becoming business wise, and he is a controlable expense.



timber

quick note here....both Asherman and timber argue a familiar claim...that the party in question (I'll paraphrase the notions) "only understands force" and "doesn't engage in civil discourse". There is rather a lot of this going on re Iraq and Arabs and extremist Muslims right now too.

These claims set off my alarm bells. They are reflected in just about every instance I know of where where the military ramps up. It is a functionally necessary justification for ourselves using force.

Of course, that such a stance is functionally necessary, doesn't mean it isn't applicable in a given situation, and perhaps Korea is such an example, but I think it behooves us to be aware that our own rhetoric can convince us what we are saying makes sense.

blatham, I share your distrust of the "They don't understand anything else" claim, but NK is characterzed to an extraordinary degree by bombast, bluster, and brinksmanship. Negotiating with them requires much the same skill required for negotiating with mules, though with additional concern required; mules tend not to be possessed of considerable military establishments.



timber

Bunny,

My analysis is mostly based on open sources. Chinese history provides a familiar pattern in how dynasties rise and fall. Maoism proceded rather faster than most from flow to ebb. Secret Societies have been one of those constant factors that show up when a dynasty begins having trouble managing the country. China, historically, has been inward looking and treated the rest of the world with distain. That is probably changing to some extent. Thought China has long regarded Tibet as a distant possession, it's modern aggression there is unusual. Tiawan has always been a part of China, and the return of Taiwan is one of the central governments priorities. Chinese intervention in Korea has historical precedent. These instances are not conclusive, afterall each of these cases are within what the Chinese have long held to be their sphere of power and influence.

The Chinese will need to become more "outer directed" to meet internal shortfalls. China has a huge population, but very little in the way of resources to satisfy a rising demand for Western style goods. Japan has become a superpowr by importing raw resources and exporting finished goods to Western markets. China has a more difficult set of problems. She has to meet internal demands and has very little to export. Japan has a highly developed infrasystem, while China lags far behind. Frankly, the Chinese can never produce enough goods to satisfy their population.

Walkman televisions, and automobiles are luxury goods, food is not. China's population is the problem, and it is getting worse every day, with every birth. Even if one could bring every Chinese household up to Western standards of living (imagine another billion automobiles in the world, and the resources it would take to duplicate the American highway system in a country like China!), that would all be for naught, when a major flood, or earthquake, triggers the next famine.

Anyone who has the slieghtest experience or knowledge of North Korean negotiating tactics would be more likely to regard Rumsfield's remarks as too mild to be effective. Saddam is another individual whose negotiation strategy is one of aggression, posturing, threats, delay and eventual backing down as little as possible under the direct threat of force. Saddam miscalculated during the Gulf War, now he is a little more cautious about defying our demands. Like any schoolyard bully, the more you try to appease them, the more they want and the more brutal they become.

America has been very slow to recognize that there are folks out there in the world who have been waging war against her for twenty years. 911 was a wakeup call. Can Al Queda emerge victorious against Western Culture? Not a chance, but they can kill a lot of people trying. Allah has a place in heaven for those who fall fighting for Islam.

timber

Your analysis of these issues is always marked by a high level of thoughtfulness and sophistication and I think you not likely to fall prey to this little rhetorical demon. Just thought I'd shine a brief light on it as a reminder, sort of the way my ex-wife posted Loreena Bobitt's photo on the refrigerator.

blatham, I too have an ex-wife. So much for the benefits of thoughtful analysis. I convinced myself I was right about that at the time.



timber

I got two of them there x's and 3 other almosts - but, now I got it right.

Doctrine of Pre-emptive Was now in force:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/021226/226/2xhzy.html

steissd, It's my humble opinion that your assessment of the Chinese position on nuclear development by NK is correct. Also, China will never threaten the US with nuclear war. As you say, most of China's productive capacity and population are based in too few primary areas that is vulnerable to nuclear attack. c.i.

I believe that Pyongyang leaders know this too. They just want to extort some cash in exchange to freezing their nuclear programs. And when they run out of the portion of cash they managed to obtain, they will repeat the trick.

In a nut shell steissd, absolutely. But, as I have said on the thread in the past, the US by agreement was supplying fuel oil to shut down the nuclear plant. We stopped supplying the oil, they need power for heating (it is very cold in N. Korea-I've seen MASH), they start the plant back up.

Nothing really and trully diabolical here.

I agree, but I have something to add. Possession of nuclear devices by N. Korea is not so much dangerous per se. It is unlikely that Pyongyang leaders will ever dare to attack their Southern neighbor where the U.S. Army units are deployed. This will lead to immediate erasure of their country from the world map.
The problem is as follows: lack of $$$ may lead to nuclear devices trade by Kim Jon Il & Co. Ltd., and they may sell some to the groups like Al Qaeda.