Is Rumsfeld trying to provoke North Korea?

Do you have a cite for this, au? Thanks!

As for having a citation, it's the aol "front page headline" right now when you log in, here ya go:

"We are capable of fighting two major regional conflicts,'' Rumsfeld said. "We're capable of winning decisively in one and swiftly defeating in the case of the other, and let there be no doubt about it.'' By John J. Lumpkin, c. The Associated Press

Rumsfeld is certifiable, in my opinion . . . this whole bunch have lost touch with reality . . .

North Korea warns of 'catastrophe'

Tuesday, December 24, 2002 Posted: 11:46 AM EST (1646 GMT)


With one of the largest armed forces in the world North Korea says it is ready for any military confrontation

PYONGYANG, North Korea (CNN) -- The refusal by the United States to negotiate with North Korea over its nuclear program could lead to an "uncontrollable catastrophe," North Korea's state-run Rodong Sinmun newspaper has warned

North Korea's answer to Rumsfeld. What could one expect after the challenge that Rumsfeld issued? I can only pray that Rumsfeld the happy warrior comes to his senses before the nuclear bombs start falling.

http://www.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/east/12/24/nkorea.us.nukes/index.html

it appears to me that NK is pushing for a non-aggression treaty with the US and Rumsfeld is playing the macho man. but i have been wrong before.

The problem is often when you play with fire you get burned.

Before jumping to any conclusions, you might want to know more about how the North Korean government negotiates, and something of the underlying situation.

North Korea is known for it's brutal negotiating stances. They demand and threaten, and then wait to see the result. If the other party gives in, then the North Koreans up their demands and threaten again. If the North Koreans believe that the response to their threats will be REAL and effective application of force, they back down a little bit before trying again. If the message sent back in response to their threats is ambiguous, they increase the threat level until a clear message is sent. They do not like compromise, and will only accept it as a last resort.

The North Korean government is nominally Communist, but is really the personal property of the Kim family. The old man came to power fighting the Japanese during WWII, then consolidated his power and attempted reunification of the penninsula under his autocratic rule. The Korean War was one of the first campaigns in the Cold War, and ended in an armistis that has endured to this day. The current leader is Kim Ill-Sung's son who came to power when Daddy died. The current Kim has a reputation for eccentric behavior, and intolerance for dissent. He retains a strong base in the military and intelligence forces. The next generation Kim now holds several important positions that will almost certainly guarantee his accention to power when the current Kim goes to the Happy Hunting Grounds.

North Korea is a terribly poor country that has been continually on the brink of famine for the last decade, or so. Industrial activity is generally out of date and unproductive. The largest industry seems to be the military and those industries that directly support the military. Roads and communications networks are still mostly primitive, except those whose existence are regarded as militarially important. Much of the North's foriegn trade is in the export of relatively inexpensive weapons and munitions -- mostly reverse engineered. The North has been experimenting and improving medium and long range rocket delivery systems for the last 25 years, and currently has the capability of reaching as far east as Alaska, the west coast of Canada, and the American Pacific Northwest. The Nort is believed to possess between 3 and 12 nuclear devices for those launch vehicles. North Korean Intelligence is very active, especially in East Asia.

The North Koreat was, is and will remain for the foreseeable future a hostile government. The Kims priorities are: Remain in power, and the Reunification of the penninsual under their rule. To achieve those goals they will do everything in their power to undermine South Korean ability to resist. The North wants the U.S. out of Asia, where we might intervene to save the South again from aggression. The North wants the wealth of the South to allay any underlying dissent in the North that may exist due to poor economic conditions (esp. food stocks), and political oppression.

This is a dangerous place, and being nice when dealing with the North Korean government is the worst thing that we could do. They only understand threats, and then only credible threats to their main goals.

Go get'm Rumsfield.

So, on that analysis, Asherman, the reason for this action by North Korea right now is to see if they can advance their nuclear program while the USA is engaged elsewhere, in the context of an ongoing policy of probing for weakness?

With the attention of the United States drawn away from East Asia, this is an opportune time for North Korea to make an attempt at advancing its interests. The South Korean elections have just taken place, and once again there is substantial sentiment that North Korea isn't really as dangerous as it once was. The North has made several cosmetic announcements that have tended to lull public opinion, but nothing of substance has changed. It is in North Korea's interest to support enemies of the United States, so by drawing some of our attention back to the Korean penninsula they may reduce the pressure on "allies/customers" in West Asia. Can the United States pursue an activist policy against Iraq's program of acquiring WMD, and Korea's at the same time?

Korea is betting that we will turn a blind eye to their admission because we aren't able to focus on both Iraq and North Korea at the same time. If we do turn a blind eye, then they get to go ahead with their nuclear weapons program unmolested. That's what they are betting on. If North Korea is permitted to enlarge its nuclear strike capability, then they can threaten nuclear strikes if anyone were to interfer with their efforts to invade the South. They need to get U.S. troops out of the theater, and then make the cost of extending American protection too large for the American People to bear. Let's say they were able to get the United States to leave Korea, and then they sent troops south again. Could we, would we send troops back into Korea if the North Korean's credibly threatened a nuclear strike against Tokyo, Anchorage, and Seattle?

Bush's move to implement a nuclear shield is one means of countering a threat that may materialize in the realtive near future. The political situation in South Korea is always sensitive. Many Koreans would like to see us leave, and they may indeed be able to handle any invasion from the North. However, does anyone want to take a chance on being wrong when the North is commanded by an ego-maniac armed with nuclear weapons and capable of striking one of our major cities?

Ah - you have given a possible reason for their acting now that includes attention to the needs of "allies" - I am very ignorant in this area - can you give any cites for your analysis? - I would be interested in reading more.

but why would N.K. be so blatant about what they are doing? it more likely appears that by all their announcements of nuclear re-activation is meant to draw attention to themselves.

Why do you think they would wish to do that, Dyslexia?

a couple of thoughts, one is that they are in dire straights economically and would like to get some major concessions such as trade, economic development and humantarian assistance but with an ego of the bully they are responding to the Bush pronouncement including them in the "axis of evil" (kind of a school yard mentality between the US and N.K.) another thought is that N.K. seems to have an attitude of intimidation towards S.K./Japan which they would like to use as a fear factor in negotiations. third i think that N.K. not unlike Cuba has become a very isolated nation without much support from China or the old Soviets and is quite simply stamping their foot demanding attention. i stand by none of these as other than simple observations.

One thing is for sure, they were promised if the put a lid on the plant, then the US and others would provide their fuel needs. Those needs have been pulled - are they just stoking up the old plant?

has the US pulled the fuel out from under them?

Thank you for your comments Dyslexia...

I don't think Rumpsfelt has ever seen a war he didn't want to participate in!

the US halted all shipments of fuel oil to N.K. about 6 weeks ago

Bill


That he didn't want someone else to participate in.

Asherman pretty well nails N.K.'s negotiating style. It has always been brash, arrogant, and abrasive. Rummy isn't "Baiting" them, he is speaking to them in manner they understand. In some wierdly Oriental way, they appear to regard civil discourse as admission of weakness. As opposed to inviting discussion, they threaten, posture, and demand. In days gone by, they were bolstered by their then-contemporary co-communist states, primarily China. Events left them with dwindling support of that nature ... their own ham-handed diplomatic finesse assisted greatly in the matter of their growing isolation.

Today they stand virtually alone, left behind by technology and prosperity. Their economy is essentially defunct. The people are starving, the civil infrastructure, what little of it there is, is crumbling. Kim The Current inherited from his father what amounted to the carcass of a nation, and that carcass is decomposing. A handy gauge of NK desperation may be found in the obstreperousness of her "Diplomatic" posturing; the worse things get domesticly, the nastier their world stance becomes. One is caused to wonder whether Kim and crowd may be successfuly engaged through dialog, cooperation, compromise, and accomodation, as befit a sovereign state, or if they must be excised from the world body as a dangerous lesion.

I have no doubt their current intransigence stems from their perception that our present preocupation with Iraq, et al, hinders us from effectively countering them in the matter of their nuclear program. They fully expect not conflict but concilliation, and expect to gain such through bombast and brinksmanship. With neither economic power nor international standing, their only bargaining chip is their military capability. Kim The Current may be desperate enough to go "Table Stakes" and bet the farm on this hand ... but I doubt it.

I imagine this will escalate, of course, but I anticipate China to become a major factor in the "Reigning In" of NK. China has just begun to figure out there are benefits to becoming involved in global commerce, benefits endangered by the prospect of herself becoming involved in any miltary confrontation with The West. Absent explicit Chinese support, NK is a regional irritation at best, albeit an irritation with limited nuclear capability. Western military action against NK would be considerably messier than against Iraq, but the issue stands in no doubt. Any war with NK guarantees the end of Kim The Current and his aspirations, and I'm sure he realizes this. He is relying on Western reluctance to undertake military action to lend weight to his peculiar negotiating style. His goal in the current matter is not war, but a lifting of sanctions, increased aid and development, and respect among nations.

Among other considerations, China has her own designs on Taiwan. In the event of Western Hostilities directed toward NK, it would be logical to postulate significant Western, essentially US, buildup of forces, facilities, and capabilities in Taiwan. This would be terribly inconvenient for China. Having a somewhat more sophisticated world view than NK, the Chinese may be expected to put some effort into preventing NK from screwing up Chinese plans. That's my take, anyway.



timber

Timber,

I agree that China will probably try to rein in Kim, but a Chinese aid has dwindled, so has its influence over a national leader whose mental stability has always been open to question.

China itself holds extremely dangerous potential for furture world problems. The Chinese people remain relatively isolated from the rest of the world. The central government controls virtually all communications and activity within the country. Western culture has begon to seep into the country and the younger generation is increasingly wants Western products. Farm peasant desparately want to leave the countryside for city life where the toil is less demanding. I believe that the Secret Societies are reviviing, though I don't have good information to support that notion. The government has to carefully keep the lid on, or they will be overthown.

Some native capitolists have become rich, but the old military and political elites continue to have a finger in every pie. This slows down economic development and discourages the sort of independance that powers Western economies.

There are at least three scenarios that should be of special concern to us.

First, China's population. This was the first human population to top one billion, and it is still growing. China's rigid control over births is not popular among the Chinese people, and they avoid and evade it as much as they can. In the countryside, birthcontrol laws are relatively easy to evade, but the laws have been somewhat successful in the large cities.

Chinese population is out of balance with its resources. The country, though huge, has only limited mineral wealth and it's infrastructure remains primitive compared with other major countries. Much of the country is not suitable for growing crops, and the rich band that lies along the oceans has been under cultivation for at least 5 thousand years. Not only is the land worn, China has a long history of water problems. Either there is too much, or too little. Drought and flood have always alternated keeping the food supply at risk. Recent efforts to tame the Yellow River threaten to further alter the delicate balance. China is over due for a major famine. What will happen if famine begins to reduce Chinese population from over a billion to say 800 million? That's four or five million famine deaths.

Second, disease. Of the annual flu strains that cripple Western countries each year, almost all originate in Southern China. There the people live in close proximity to their livestock, and environmental conditions are almost perfect for viral mutations. During WWI the world was hit by a very murderous flue strain called the "Spanish Lady". Spanish Lady killed as many people as trench warfare in France. If a similar viral strain were to appear in Southeast Asia, hold on to your hat because the wind is agonna howl. It is possible that an epidemic could also kill up to around 10 million Chinese, and perhaps 20% of the rest of the world's population in a matter of say, six months. Being a grave digger could become a great career choice. The Chinese government refuses to acknowledge that any potential problem exists, and medical support resources inside China are inadequate even by their own standards.

Third, demographics. One result of the population laws is that Chinese parents have resorted to infantcide. Everyone wants a son, so they kill the girl babies. The result has been a slow, but steady imbalance between the sexes. Every year there are more young men (17-25) and fewer girls in that age cohort. What happens when you have far more young men than there are girls for them to mate with? The Chinese haven't reached critical mass yet, but sometime in the next ten years this is likely to be a very difficult problem for them. Currently they keep the matter in check by putting all those extra males into the Army and keeping them there. Hmmnn, heavily armed sexually frustrated 20 year olds. As long the military can maintain control and discipline there danger here is not worth losing too much sleep over. However, if the military ever begins to lose its hold hell could break-out in a heartbeat.

The current powerstructure in China is increasingly fragile, and if suddenly faced with a major crisis (see one, or more of the above), China might be a threat to both its immediate neighbors (esp. the Rice Bowl countries of the extreme southeast), and world stability.

We should be watching China very, very carefully for the next ten years.