Intelligent Design vs. Casino Universe

@Herald,

Herald,

Would you like to play poker with me? Please?

I think I would really enjoy playing with you.

@maxdancona,

No, thank you.
But if you have something to discuss on the theme, which was 'ID or Odds' (if we use the professional terminology of Frank) - you are welcome.

2 Replies

@Herald,

You misunderstand. Poker is a mathematical game that depends on a strong understanding of probability and odds.

It is your understanding of probability and odds that makes me really, really want to play poker with you (for money of course).

1 Reply

@Herald,

Why don't you say the odds are infinite or as near as makes no difference to a math major?

0 Replies

Speaking of odds and chances, Brit atheists (fronted by Dawks naturally) paid £150,000 (241.000 US dollars) to splash these "adverts" on a fleet of buses a few years ago but it backfired on them because they say there's PROBABLY no God; in other words they're not sure.. Smile

"Probably" is not a very scientific statement anyway, I wonder what they'd put the odds at?

http://i53.photobucket.com/albums/g64/PoorOldSpike/atheistbus.gif

Waddya say Chris?
"I'm not worried, there's a 5 to 1 chance that I probably won't blow my head off!"

http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/9595/tfa5.jpg

0 Replies

@Herald,

Herald wrote:

Frank Apisa wrote:
So...what are the odds?

Honestly speaking I don't understand your question. What are you asking: How much is the probability in this case (this is only an example – it is not a case) or how much is the probability is some case that you have not specified yet?

If you want to ask 'What is the probability for this & this event happening?' you should make the assumptions first:
we have zero-D space (sterile gravitational singularity)
we have no chemical elements (not even electrons and protons)
we don't know yet whether we have the Higg's boson appeared on the stage or not ... etc.

Q.: What is the probability for the amino acids to emerge under these assumptions: 13 BN years ago - 10 BN years ago - 1 BN years ago - ... etc.?

If you want for the people to chat with you, they should be able to understand you first.

Let me take this very slowly for you, Herald, because you obviously are having a bit of trouble keeping up.

You asked:

Quote:

I was asking how does the first unicellular living organism arose ... out of the inorganic matter how did it guess (no matter whether with or without the help of the big bang) to make a mechanism of self-replication, to develop the complex apparatus to synthesize the components needed for its metabolism to function properly. How does that happen ... and what is the probability for this to happen by chance & without an intelligent pre-design?
http://able2know.org/topic/226001-5#post-5488213\

I replied:

Quote:

I would guess the probability of this happening are about the same as the probability of an "intelligence to make it happen" happening by chance.

http://able2know.org/topic/226001-5#post-5488349

You replied:

Quote:

1. The probability is not a matter of guessing ... it is calculated under certain assumptions. Viewing it as a guess means that your understanding of the things is too superficial and mediocre.

http://able2know.org/topic/226001-6#post-5488790

I replied:

Quote:

Do it! It is not that hard...so do it.

You might want to look up the work of Ican who used to be here. He did it for years...calculating and calculating.

So...what are the odds?

http://able2know.org/topic/226001-6#post-5488875

So I ask again,Herald…since you think it is such an easy thing to do…calculate for me the odds that…

…I was asking how does the first unicellular living organism arose ... out of the inorganic matter how did it guess (no matter whether with or without the help of the big bang) to make a mechanism of self-replication, to develop the complex apparatus to synthesize the components needed for its metabolism to function properly. How does that happen ... and what is the probability for this to happen by chance & without an intelligent pre-design?

I am saying it is too hard to do (the reason for my guess)…but you are saying that my “understanding of the things is too superficial and mediocre”…so lets use your more sophisticated knowledge to see the calculations.

Calculate it. You have asserted it is easy. Tell us the number.

2 Replies

@Frank Apisa,

Quote:

Q.: What is the probability for the amino acids to emerge under these assumptions: 13 BN years ago - 10 BN years ago - 1 BN years ago - ... etc.?

We know that amino acids arise from "inorganic salts" and non-biogenic carbo. Its done all the time in labs.
The Miller Urey experiment, so criticized by the Creationists< does yield several amino acids. (SEVERAL).

CO2.CH3/PO4/CaCO3/Fe2O3/Fe3O4/NH3/NH4/H2O were all abiogenic compunds on the early earth. Zapping em together can create nucleotides and amino acids.
The step to life is the hard part. Prokaryotes (the Archea) were so simple that they were nothing more than a bubble with nutrients inside. They hd no multilayered cell wall, they hd no nuclei or vacuoles or mitochondria. They were not much more than the clay bottom organic material they arose from.

As far as all the "probability games". Think about how much time was available from the formation of the planet to the evidence of life in the ISUA FORMATION of Greenland.
AND, in the first appearance of life on the planet (usually stated as 3.4 B years ago) There were 3.7 X(10^16) seconds to hve a "life creting" reaction ccur
CTUALLY we could state that reaction could occur similr to the number of disintegrations per second of Uranium 238(bout 17 million)
That would be a time and space probability of life happening in the first 1.1 Billion years of the planet at about

5.9 X(10^22) site.seconds
NOW lets figure out how many sites there were in the primordial erth for which there were places for life to begin.
Lets only count the area of the planet that is wet with water.

ITS almost n infinite series (something like Avogadro's number times the number of millilitres of matter in the planetary sphere)

3 Replies

@farmerman,

farmerman wrote:

Quote:

Q.: What is the probability for the amino acids to emerge under these assumptions: 13 BN years ago - 10 BN years ago - 1 BN years ago - ... etc.?

We know that amino acids arise from "inorganic salts" and non-biogenic carbo. Its done all the time in labs.
The Miller Urey experiment, so criticized by the Creationists< does yield several amino acids. (SEVERAL).

CO2.CH3/PO4/CaCO3/Fe2O3/Fe3O4/NH3/NH4/H2O were all abiogenic compunds on the early earth. Zapping em together can create nucleotides and amino acids.
The step to life is the hard part. Prokaryotes (the Archea) were so simple that they were nothing more than a bubble with nutrients inside. They hd no multilayered cell wall, they hd no nuclei or vacuoles or mitochondria. They were not much more than the clay bottom organic material they arose from.

As far as all the "probability games". Think about how much time was available from the formation of the planet to the evidence of life in the ISUA FORMATION of Greenland.
AND, in the first appearance of life on the planet (usually stated as 3.4 B years ago) There were 3.7 X(10^16) seconds to hve a "life creting" reaction ccur
CTUALLY we could state that reaction could occur similr to the number of disintegrations per second of Uranium 238(bout 17 million)
That would be a time and space probability of life happening in the first 1.1 Billion years of the planet at about

5.9 X(10^22) site.seconds
NOW lets figure out how many sites there were in the primordial erth for which there were places for life to begin.
Lets only count the area of the planet that is wet with water.

ITS almost n infinite series (something like Avogadro's number times the number of millilitres of matter in the planetary sphere)

I suspect that it was almost an infinite series.

That was my point.

When Herald asked me what the probability would be...my guess would be enormous. But the probability of an intelligence that would be able to order things...is just as enormous.

My response to him was: About the same as the probability of the intelligence that is being proposed.

People like Herald want to suppose that the probability of some "always existing intelligence" is somehow not as great as the probability that evolution just occurred because it occurred.

0 Replies

@farmerman,

Hey fm, are you ducking the insect colony question put to you because it is too difficult or scary or something else personal?

You do have to face the rather obvious fact that apart from those who learn your silly post off by heart it is a case of once eaten soon forgeeten. It's nothing. Very few readers here have any interest in such matters and my one-liner above dealt with the subject much more efficiently and I would claim more memorably. The only thing memorable about your post is that it was just another in a long line of you showing off

But you have to hand it to Apisa to have had the brilliant insight to realise that the odds are "almost infinite". He really is an astounding intellect. Make no mistake about it. IDers believe it is a certainty and his and your arguments are posited upon the assertion that it isn't. To which they will answer that it is. Thus invoking an "it isn't" from you two silly moocows. Then it resolves itself into which side can blurt longest and the track record of you and your fans flouncing dramatically onto Ignore suggests your side is fucked.

And moocows are rather undignified creatures with a capacity for ungainliness thrown in. We can't be sure they are stupid mind you. That they look it is neither here nor there.

Your post is a type of chewing the cud.

OK--is this easier? --if the pursuit of happiness, freedom and the sunny uplands is the name of the game in what way is truth superior to faith and myth as a means to achieving the objective?

The problem with science is that its priesthood are all human beings. And by their own lights humans are animals and animals are machines or mechanical accidents of DNA, whatever that is, gathered randomly in aggregates for a very brief period of time, which have learned to not **** all over the place whenever the urge comes upon them.

Circus animals and household pets might provide exceptions but they are imprisoned in as unnatural a world, to which they are entirely unfitted by evolution, as you would be fastened down in Lilliput. A cruel fate indeed.

One can only aspire to have "one hand waving free".

But I would be glad to be Abled 2 Know what you think about the two questions. Isn't your mission here to Able us 2 Know?

Mine is.

1 Reply

@spendius,

[

Quote:

Hey fm, are you ducking the insect colony question put to you because it is too difficult or scary or something else personal?

[

I love scary questions, What were you asking me. I was out the lst 2 dys and didn't sit in on many conversations. I usually posted then ran, or saw one post and responded (then ran out again). As far as not responding to you> Ichoose my responses to posts that are , in themselves, clearly written and have information worth debating. Usually yours are masturbatory utterings of a dull witted mad bloke who's ADD wont allow him to follow a thought to completion without inane references to irrelevant philosophers or midiieval monks.

If Im amoocow, youre a dung beetle, thriving on my excrement

1 Reply

@farmerman,

1--An insect colony contains large numbers of individual insects but to an outside observer it displays a unity. Is it possible to say that there is no coordinating agent present, a sort of colony self, and if not what do you think the coordinating agent is which transcends the generations of insects?

2---If the pursuit of happiness, freedom and the sunny uplands is the name of the game in what way is truth superior to faith and myth as a means to achieving the objective?

1 Reply

Spendius wrote:

what do you think the coordinating agent is which transcends the generations of insects?

It's a behavior common in many species, including man:

Quote:

Herd behavior describes how individuals in a group can act together without planned direction. The term pertains to the behavior of animals in herds, flocks and schools, demonstrations, riots and general strikes,[1] sporting events, religious gatherings, episodes of mob violence and everyday decision-making, judgment and opinion-forming.

1 Reply

@maxdancona,

maxdancona wrote:

You misunderstand. Poker is a mathematical game that depends on a strong understanding of probability and odds.

Maybe you misunderstood something. 888Poker online is totally a scam. If you are expert in poker fraud perhaps you should look for some other canary finch. I said you: No, thank you (where 'thank you' is a polite phrase). Which part of the sentence you don't understand?

1 Reply

@Frank Apisa,

Frank Apisa wrote:

Calculate it. You have asserted it is easy. Tell us the number.

No, I am not going to do anything of the kind. I am not fond of generating redundant information on the net. If you want to see some calculations just write in Google:
- probability of abiogenesis
- probability of abiogenesis calculations
& you may investigate the network, the images, and the videos there in the Google search.

1 Reply

@Herald,

Herald wrote:

Frank Apisa wrote:
Calculate it. You have asserted it is easy. Tell us the number.

No, I am not going to do anything of the kind. I am not fond of generating redundant information on the net. If you want to see some calculations just write in Google:
- probability of abiogenesis
- probability of abiogenesis calculations
& you may investigate the network, the images, and the videos there in the Google search.

Okay then calculate the alternatives to the theory you present.

In the end, I think you will find they are close.

That was my guess. I didn't do the calculations...and I didn't read what others calculated. I just guessed.

But this is one of those times when I would bet on my guess.

0 Replies

@Herald,

Herald wrote:

maxdancona wrote:
You misunderstand. Poker is a mathematical game that depends on a strong understanding of probability and odds.

Maybe you misunderstood something. 888Poker online is totally a scam. If you are expert in poker fraud perhaps you should look for some other canary finch. I said you: No, thank you (where 'thank you' is a polite phrase). Which part of the sentence you don't understand?

Most online poker is not a scam at all, Herald. And in any case, like Max...I'd love to get you and your money at a table where I am playing.

3 Replies

@Frank Apisa,

Frank, you would not be nearly as much fun to play poker with as Herald would. Please don't take this personally, I would enjoy meeting you in person.

1 Reply

@maxdancona,

maxdancona wrote:

Frank, you would not be nearly as much fun to play poker with as Herald would. Please don't take this personally, I would enjoy meeting you in person.

Thanks, Max.

We're gonna have legal online poker back during the next couple of weeks here in New Jersey. Looking forward to it. I'm actually an Omaha player rather than Hold 'em...although when I play in live games, it is always almost always Hold 'em.

2 Replies

@Frank Apisa,

I don't like to play online. I like to look you in the eyes while you are taking money from me. I play low stakes holdem tournaments primarily and I am somewhat profitable doing so (I haven't quit my day job).

I would like to keep poker as a hobby.

0 Replies

@Frank Apisa,

To get back to the topic, people who believe in Intelligent Design still believe that the Universe runs as a Casino. They just believe it is a crooked casino. In intelligent design God lets science happen as the cards are played, He just makes sure the deck is stacked to get the outcome He wants.

The idea of a God who cheats science is somehow appealing.

1 Reply

Intelligent Design vs. Casino Universe

Related Topics

Quick Links

My Account

able2know