OCCOM BILL wrote:The Casinos have Bush ahead by about 1 and a half to one. These guys are pretty good at what they do. If you really think Kerry's gonna win, click
here and make some cash!
Who the Casinos are picking doesn't mean a thing. The casinos don't care who wins and it doesn't even matter if they guessed right.
The odds set by the casinos are designed to maximize the number of people betting. People are betting against each other (not against the casino) and they set it up so that there is no risk to the casino. The house always wins no matter what the outcome is.
So, the odds say a lot more about the people who are gambing than anything else. The people who are gambling are not representative of the voting public.
I don't expect that this is a reliable way to pick elections.
It would be interesting to see how the odds on elections correlated to the election results in years past. I haven't seen any numbers on this.
But, I do think that Bush is vulnerable.
I might just call up my bookie...