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The GOP is Rumored to be in BIG Trouble, So why Are They WINNING Again?

 
 
Reply Fri 26 Apr, 2013 11:03 pm
Liberals Agree: Democrats "Lost" the Great Sequestration War
By David Weigel


Quote:
First Ezra Klein said it, then Noam Scheiber said it -- good enough for gospel. Klein's nut graf is usefully concise:

Sequestration was supposed to be so threatening that Republicans would agree to a budget deal that included tax increases rather than permit it to happen. That theory was wrong. The follow-up theory was that the actual pain caused by sequestration would be so great that it would, in a matter of months, push the two sides to agree to a deal. Democrats just proved that theory wrong, too.
If it was wrong, why? Because the president and Congress are not equal players, and Republicans worked hard to keep it that way. In December, Republicans generally told me that the "fiscal cliff" would be a disaster, but mostly for one side -- the Pennsylvania Avenue side. Voters blame the president, not the Congress, when everything goes south. Voters blamed George H.W. Bush, not Tom Foley, for the 1991 recession; they blamed George W. Bush, not Nancy Pelosi, for the 2008 collapse. (There are good reasons for this, but let's move on.)

In January, Republicans tested this theory by limiting and delaying their own leverage over Barack Obama. In 2011, eventually, they learned that holding the debt limit hostage for a political program was deadly. So they punted the debt limit fight to later in the year -- it may now come in early autumn -- realizing that sequestration was more of a winnable fight. (yes, I understand the glibness of reducing decisions that cause real pain in the lives of the poor as "fights.")

Sequestration arrived, and -- it was not as disastrous, for most people, as had been promised. Republicans worked hard to define every showy cut as an Obama stunt; anyway, they had promised legislation, sheparded by James Inhofe, that would have empowered him to get past the purposeful stupidity of the cuts move the money around, spending the same amount but spending it judiciously. It didn't pass, but in PR terms it didn't matter. Intuitively, voters don't understand that a president might be hamstrung when he's making decisions about spending.

The White House fought this meme. The most pushback I can find came from Jay Carney, who used questions about the furloughs to deliver extremely lengthy talking points. One sample, from Wednesday, of Carney attacking Republicans:
It's slightly ironic that -- and you never hear them mention this -- but they should also read the budget that they passed in the House of Representatives. The Ryan budget cuts -- if the dramatic, non-defense discretionary cuts envisioned in that budget were applied across the board -- because of course they're not identified in the Ryan budget -- but if they were just applied across the board, the cuts to the FAA would be three times the size of the sequester budget reductions. Three times. That's what they voted for. That's what they want to become the law of the land.
And it's not just the FAA. The same dramatic, steep cuts in services for children, for seniors; the same kind of harm that we're seeing from the sequester -- eliminating children from Head Start, eliminating access to Meals on Wheels programs for seniors -- just multiplied and made worse. That's the budget they voted for.
That was supposed to be the message, but when did you ever hear it? Call it the Maureen Dowd Paradox -- people are so inclined to see the president as powerful that they don't understand how and why he might be limited legislatively.


AND


G.O.P. Claims Victory as Bill to Curb Flight Delays Passes

By JONATHAN WEISMAN

Quote:
— President Obama and Congressional Democrats on Friday abandoned their once-firm stand that growing airport bottlenecks would be addressed only in a broader fix to across-the-board spending cuts, accepting bipartisan legislation that would bring the nation’s air traffic control system back up to full strength

With remarkable speed, the House overwhelmingly approved legislation to give the secretary of transportation enough financial flexibility to shift as much as $253 million to the air traffic control system, less than a week after the onset of politically problematic flight delays driven by across-the-board spending cuts. The money will be shifted from airport improvement funds, and none would come from additional revenues, once a key demand of Mr. Obama and the Democrats. The 361-to-41 vote came less than 24 hours after the Senate rushed the measure through.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/27/us/politics/congress-passes-bill-to-end-flight-delays.html?hp&_r=0

Me thinks that press assertions that the GOP is washed up with the American people are greatly exaggerated.
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Type: Discussion • Score: 3 • Views: 1,025 • Replies: 6
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oralloy
 
  -2  
Reply Sat 27 Apr, 2013 05:22 am

It was kind of a mistake for Obama to waste all his political capital futilely attacking the NRA.

Whatever he might have used that political capital to achieve in his second term, now he will never achieve.

And after an ineffective second term with nothing to show for it, the voters will be more than ready to put the Republicans back in the White House come 2016.

And if that wasn't enough self-inflicted damage for the Democrats, now they want to double down on their failed assault against the NRA and make the primary theme of the 2014 election all about how much the Democrats hate the Constitution.
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Sat 27 Apr, 2013 05:47 am
@hawkeye10,
The big question is how sequestration plays in the 2014 elections (and then of course 2016). I suspect the sequestration might be a big part of congressional races and be a significant plus for the blue side. Of course this may be wishful thinking, but we will see.

This article doesn't address the electoral impact, which in the long term is all that matters in this "war".

Sequestration, combined with immigration and gun-control, let's the Democrats continue their argument that Republicans are hard-liners and Democrats are the moderate party of reason.

This is a very potent political message.



H2O MAN
 
  -1  
Reply Sat 27 Apr, 2013 08:09 am


Sequestration, combined with immigration and gun-control
only makes liberal democrats look like the idiots they are.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sat 27 Apr, 2013 11:12 am
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

The big question is how sequestration plays in the 2014 elections (and then of course 2016). I suspect the sequestration might be a big part of congressional races and be a significant plus for the blue side. Of course this may be wishful thinking, but we will see.

This article doesn't address the electoral impact, which in the long term is all that matters in this "war".




so far as the D/R skirmishes go I dont see it mattering....the take-away is that Washington is broken, this does not change votes until and unless one side signs up to be the reform party.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Sat 27 Apr, 2013 12:23 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:
Sequestration, combined with immigration and gun-control, let's the Democrats continue their argument that Republicans are hard-liners and Democrats are the moderate party of reason.

This is a very potent political message.


No voter cares about sequestration.

The only reason immigration reform has a chance (it's not like Obama has any political capital left to push for anything) is because the Republicans want it too.

And the only message from gun control is "the Democrats hate the Constitution".

That last one is going to be potent, but don't look for it to lead to very many Democratic victories. Voters don't like it when the Democrats come and violate their civil rights.
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Sat 27 Apr, 2013 01:16 pm
@oralloy,
Quote:
A bill to give the FAA flexibility in defraying its spending cuts was passed by the House of Representatives on Friday. White House press secretary Jay Carney said on Friday that President Obama would sign the legislation when it arrives on his desk.
A few typos have delayed the delivery of the bill to the president for a day or two, however, NBC News’ Chuck Todd reported on Saturday. The president may not sign the bill until Monday.

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/04/27/17946173-faa-suspends-employee-furloughs-bill-held-up-by-typos?lite

another news item to drive the storyline that Washington is broken....
0 Replies
 
 

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