Countdown to the fall of Assad

Finn dAbuzz
Reply Thu 13 Dec, 2012 03:50 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Which would transform it from a democracy, and since it is extremely unlikely, for a number of reasons, that Islamist nations will not even approach the Turkish model, it's almost cry fair to say that Islamist and democratic are mutally exclusive.
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Finn dAbuzz
Reply Thu 13 Dec, 2012 04:02 pm
It's hard to imagine the Assad regime enduring, but as the cliche goes, anything is possible. It's even more difficult to imagine that the violence will not continue if and when the Assad regime falls.

Hard core Islamists are among the rebels and they are not going to country to moderate Moslems or liberal secularists once the regime falls.

Iran, obviously,wants to keep the regime in place as long as it can but it's interests lie first and foremost with Syria the piece of real estate rather than Assad. Before or after the regime falls, Iran will be buying influence with factions among the rebels. If they can make establish a meaningful influence in the Iraqi government, how much easier will it be for them to do so with rebel factions, and even whatever government rises from the ashes.

There's nothing inherent in Arabs or even Islam which serves as an inoculation against democracy, but the the deck is so stacked against democratic reform that it's just not possible to imagine it taking root anywhere in the region.
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