@Setanta,
And that's the thing -- it's not just the pure numbers, it's expectations of what's safe, etc.
Like, California at 55 electoral votes and a bunch of regular votes hadn't been factored in yet. But it was extremely safe to say it would go to Obama.
The thing is that crucial states like Pennsylvania have already gone to Obama; other crucial states are close and/ or promising; and various indicators (bellwether counties, etc.) are also promising.
I'm definitely not going to bed assuming an Obama win. But at this point, for a lot of reasons (CNN on TV, several NYT tabs open, Daily Dish, TPM, Nate Silver, etc., etc.) I think it's more likely.