engineer
 
  3  
Reply Fri 14 Sep, 2012 05:53 pm
@MontereyJack,
Pawns are sacrificed early and have very little chance of making Queen. Go for a rook instead.
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Sep, 2012 06:58 pm
We're talking about Romney/Ryan/Republicans here. Pawn is the apt descriptor.
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Sep, 2012 10:49 pm
I wonder, in November, when Romney is shown conclusively that the country doesn't want him , will he go out and get a real job? Six years of doing nothing constructive but running for the presidency instead,should more than enough for anyone.
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Fri 14 Sep, 2012 10:53 pm
@MontereyJack,
MontereyJack wrote:

I wonder, in November, when Romney is shown conclusively that the country doesn't want him , will he go out and get a real job? Six years of doing nothing constructive but running for the presidency instead,should more than enough for anyone.


he will of course become a lobbyist. He will also make heaps of new money as he works to keep the corporate class corruption of the government in place and expand it.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  -1  
Reply Sat 15 Sep, 2012 12:01 am
@MMarciano,
MMarciano wrote:

He doesn't see what you post, he put you on ignore a while ago. Said you were a waste of time.


Thanks for the edification.

Since I rarely agree with him, I'm sure he does consider me a waste of time. Better he spend his time in an echo chamber.

0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 15 Sep, 2012 12:06 am
Don't assume that Obama is going to win; I'm traveling with a lot of conservatives who will be voting for him. Several has said that Romney's business background is what will influence their voting, and that he's a nice guy.

I don't argue with them, because I'll not see these people again in the future.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  -2  
Reply Sat 15 Sep, 2012 12:17 am
@MontereyJack,
Perhaps, but not being a Romney pawn, I don't now how either the puppet or the pawn might feel.

I think Romney will make a good president, but, unlike The One, he hasn't spawned any cults and if he did I wouldn't join.

I am not so much pro-Romney as I am anti-Obama.

As much as I find Newt Gingrich very distasteful I would, in a heart beat, vote for him over Obama, and, if necessary, I would crawl naked over broken glass to do so.

Should he win in November, it will be small and bitter consolation to tell you so when he ruins this nation.

Should Romney win and spell disaster for America, please be my guest and rub it in my virtual face.


0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  -1  
Reply Sat 15 Sep, 2012 12:38 am
@cicerone imposter,
There are a number of reasons why one shouldn't assume Obama will win...despite the polls:

We all know people who voted for Obama in 2008 who will not do so in 2012. Does anyone know a McCain voter who will now vote for Obama?

He can't possibly generate the turn-out he benefited from in 2008. He can't capture lightning in a bottle. 2008 was a once in a lifetime election. He will win the Black, Hispanic, Youth and Unmarried Mother vote, but their numbers will not come close to what they were in 2008.

Current polling over counts Democrats and relies on the voter turnout percentages of 2008.

Undecided voters always, in the main, break for the challenger.

There are huge numbers of voters who don't want to admit that they have given up on the first black president. They, unfortunately, buy into the nonsense that to do so is racist and they are so insecure as to worry whether or not a nameless voice on the telephone who is polling them thinks they may be racist.

Past history on polling indicates it is unreliable in terms of what it suggests.

Polling in Wisconsin (including exit polling) suggested that Walker would defeat the recall by a slim margin. He ended up getting more votes than he did when he originally ran for office.

Polling missed the 2010 Tea Party sweep.

When Kerry challenged Bush, Republicans watched the early returns with dread and nausea as pundits all across TV (including FOX) exulted or lamented that the exit polls indicated that Kerry of Vietnam would win.

If the race remains tight until Nov 6th, Romney will win, even if Obama is 2 or 3 points ahead on Nov 5th.

The MSM encourages Liberals and maddens Conservatives, but Independents don't buy any of the **** they are selling. They have ruined what little reputation they have with their leg-humping of Obama.

And most importantly of all, God loves America and won't let the anti-Christ win. Cool

He'll have to work his evil intent as General Secretary of the United Nations.

It won't be a Romney landslide, as some wishful thinkers on the Right contend, but it will be a win and that will do Babe, that will do.
MontereyJack
 
  2  
Reply Sat 15 Sep, 2012 02:28 am
You realize, of course, Finn, you are perfectly free to vote for Newt Gingrich. Indeed I encourage you to do so. Just post the video of you crawling naked over broken glass on your way to the voting booth on youTube.
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  1  
Reply Sat 15 Sep, 2012 02:33 am
I agree with you, Finn, Newt would ruin the country. (Are you sure you meant your pronouns to read that way? Freudian slip?)As would Romney. They would of course be simply following in the Republican footsteps of George W. Bush who did a truly remarkable job of spending us into the poorhouse and not paying for it and wrecking the economy to boot. As someone succinctly put it, the Republicans trashed the economy and now they complain that Obama isn't restoring it fast enough, so we should throw him out and vote them back in so they can do it again.
0 Replies
 
jcboy
 
  2  
Reply Sat 15 Sep, 2012 05:26 am
Bain Capital is back in the news again. Bain requested that the court keep all documents secret so as to not affect the election. That is very considerate of them.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/12/business/documents-depict-equity-firms-like-bain-as-colluding.html?_r=2pagewanted=all&

Quote:

WASHINGTON — In court documents that lawyers for Bain Capital sought to keep secret, the company and other leading private equity firms are depicted as unofficial partners in a bid-rigging conspiracy aimed at holding down the prices of businesses they were seeking to buy.

Stephen Schwarzman runs the Blackstone Group, one of the firms accused of colluding with others to deflate takeover bids.

In Bain’s biggest acquisition, the $32.1 billion purchase of the hospital giant HCA in 2006, competitors agreed privately to “stand down” and not bid on the company as part of an understanding with Bain to divvy up companies targeted for leveraged buyouts, according to internal e-mails.

The documents have become part of a lawsuit in Federal District Court in Boston brought against Bain and other firms by shareholders who say the firms’ bid-rigging artificially deflated the sales price of more than two dozen companies and cost them billions of dollars.

Bain, founded by the Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, is a defendant in the lawsuit, which also names Goldman Sachs’s private equity arm and the Blackstone Group, the firm run by the investor Stephen A. Schwarzman.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  4  
Reply Sat 15 Sep, 2012 09:33 am
@Finn dAbuzz,
What a lot of wishful thinking Finn
Quote:

Current polling over counts Democrats and relies on the voter turnout percentages of 2008.
Your support of this? Are you sure they don't use 2010 turnout?

Quote:

Past history on polling indicates it is unreliable in terms of what it suggests.
I guess if you want to completely ignore the history of polling. Historically it has been relatively accurate. Picking the wrong winner has been the exception over the last 40 years.

Quote:

Undecided voters always, in the main, break for the challenger.
That is funny. But then you "always" are.

Quote:

Polling in Wisconsin (including exit polling) suggested that Walker would defeat the recall by a slim margin. He ended up getting more votes than he did when he originally ran for office.
Tom Barret also got more votes than when he originally ran against Walker. The margin was almost the same. 300,000 more people voted in the recall than in the original election. By the way, polling prior to the recall election showed Walker winning the recall. So much for the polls picking the wrong person and so much for the undecided swinging to the challenger.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/04/us-usa-wisconsin-recall-polls-idUSBRE85304120120604

Quote:
Polling missed the 2010 Tea Party sweep

Sure it did.
http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/wtzl0rgg206gadur_zzjgq.gif


Quote:

It won't be a Romney landslide, as some wishful thinkers on the Right contend, but it will be a win and that will do Babe, that will do.
The problem for Romney is the electoral college. It just isn't looking good no matter how much you want to ignore poll numbers.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sat 15 Sep, 2012 11:30 am
@parados,
Isn't also strange that the media continues to ignore the electoral college when they talk about how close the election is. They create their own misinformation.
0 Replies
 
revelette
 
  1  
Reply Sun 16 Sep, 2012 11:12 am
Quote:
Charlie Cook's The Cook Report

By this time next week, there should be enough national and state-level polling data to present a pretty clear picture of where this election stands, post-Labor Day and after whatever bounces the candidates may have gotten from the conventions. But we have seen enough data in recent weeks to draw some preliminary conclusions about the contests for the White House, the Senate, and, to a lesser extent, the House.

The presidential race is still close and, in a tight election, either candidate can win. Any number of events, not the least of which are debates, campaign gaffes, and domestic or international developments, could put President Obama or Mitt Romney over the top. Although it is pretty clear that Obama has an edge over Romney in national and swing-state polling, the size of his advantage remains in doubt. Every event or development should be judged on whether it might change the path of this election.

My view is that if Obama is reelected, it will be despite the economy and because of his campaign; if Mitt Romney wins, it will be because of the economy and despite his campaign. This economy is an enormous millstone around Obama’s neck, yet he and his campaign have managed to secure the upper hand—albeit with a very tenuous grip. At the same time, despite an enormous advantage that the sluggish economy and the sentiment for change affords him, Romney and his campaign, to an astonishing degree, seem to have squandered too many opportunities and undermined his chances of winning.

It should be emphasized again and again that this campaign isn’t over and that the race is still awfully close. But without a change in the trajectory, it’s a good bet that Obama will come out on top. The questions are whether the opportunity will arise for that trajectory to change and whether the Romney campaign be able to effectively capitalize on it.


More at the source.

I agree with him, unless something drastically changes more than likely Obama will barely win but we (democrats) might very well loose the senate.
0 Replies
 
engineer
 
  6  
Reply Sun 16 Sep, 2012 02:24 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Finn dAbuzz wrote:

There are a number of reasons why one shouldn't assume Obama will win...despite the polls:

One being common sense. There is a lot of time plus the debates before the election.

Finn dAbuzz wrote:
We all know people who voted for Obama in 2008 who will not do so in 2012. Does anyone know a McCain voter who will now vote for Obama?

I don't know anyone personally that has changed sides from 2008, but I imagine those switching from McCain to Obama live in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan since Romney and the Republicans have clearly denounced the auto industry bailout and that bailout was very successful in saving a lot of industry in those areas. Unfortunately for Romney, those are key states. He needs two of three of those if not all three.

Finn dAbuzz wrote:
He can't possibly generate the turn-out he benefited from in 2008. He can't capture lightning in a bottle. 2008 was a once in a lifetime election. He will win the Black, Hispanic, Youth and Unmarried Mother vote, but their numbers will not come close to what they were in 2008.

(Unmarried mother vote??) But all of those votes are larger than they were four years ago. All those college kids from four years ago have been replaced with a new crop and the Hispanic population is on the rise. Still, overall I agree with your assessment here. Obama is not the fresh new face he was in '08, but all of that is in the current polling.

Finn dAbuzz wrote:
Current polling over counts Democrats and relies on the voter turnout percentages of 2008.

Not by the reputable polling companies. All of them have different voter turn out models but they are not just assuming the 2008 numbers. Nate Silver over at the NY Times routinely discusses polling methodology if you are interested.

Finn dAbuzz wrote:
Undecided voters always, in the main, break for the challenger.

That is not true. It varies from election to election. President Bush captured the undecided vote in 2004 for example. IMO, Romney has not done himself any favors so far in appearing as a reasonable alternative to those who are luke warm on Obama and could be persuaded. I think his last chance is the debate series.

Finn dAbuzz wrote:
There are huge numbers of voters who don't want to admit that they have given up on the first black president. They, unfortunately, buy into the nonsense that to do so is racist and they are so insecure as to worry whether or not a nameless voice on the telephone who is polling them thinks they may be racist.

This type of polling bias is well documented from twenty years ago, but more recent studies show almost no impact and studies on robo calling show that the bias disappears when talking to a computer. Robo polls and in person polls are coming down pretty evenly now days.

Finn dAbuzz wrote:
Past history on polling indicates it is unreliable in terms of what it suggests.

Polling in Wisconsin (including exit polling) suggested that Walker would defeat the recall by a slim margin. He ended up getting more votes than he did when he originally ran for office.

Not when used appropriately with the appropriate confidence intervals. Again I reference you to Nate Silver's commentaries. That said, I agree the media is completely clueless in understanding statistics and will parrot the results of any poll that comes out regardless of the house bias or confidence intervals. I don't read a lot into a single poll regardless of how much press it is getting.

Finn dAbuzz wrote:
Polling missed the 2010 Tea Party sweep.

Not in the polls I read. Those called for a big, big night for Republicans.

Finn dAbuzz wrote:
When Kerry challenged Bush, Republicans watched the early returns with dread and nausea as pundits all across TV (including FOX) exulted or lamented that the exit polls indicated that Kerry of Vietnam would win.

True, but that was because they incorrectly read high voter turnout during the day as good for Kerry. The exit polls nailed the election. You can find that at CNN. (BTW, if you want to denigrate Kerry's service in Vietnam, at least have the indecency to do the same to McCain of Vietnam.)

In summary, I am with you that the media tends to simplify polling to the point of making them useless but those who know what they are doing also see Obama in the lead right now. There is plenty of time for that to change, but you can't hand wave away the math right now. If the vote was today, President Obama likely gets four more years and if he is consistently ahead by 2-3% in national polls on Nov. 5, Romney will be the next Kerry (but without the service to his country).
Finn dAbuzz
 
  -1  
Reply Sun 16 Sep, 2012 05:09 pm
@engineer,
Sorry engineer but I'm not about to accept anyone wrting for the NY Times as correct when I can easily produce links refuting their conjecture.

I stand by my assertions, including the one that undecideds always break for the challenger. Show me Nate Silver, and I'll show you Dick Morris: proof positive to neither of us.

Irrespective of whether or not you buy everything I've posted, it's pretty clear that any assertion that Obama has this one is the bag is ridiculous.
engineer
 
  2  
Reply Sun 16 Sep, 2012 05:32 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Finn dAbuzz wrote:

Irrespective of whether or not you buy everything I've posted, it's pretty clear that any assertion that Obama has this one is the bag is ridiculous.

And on that we can agree.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Sep, 2012 12:12 am
@engineer,
That's because the media talks about polls rather than the electoral college.
0 Replies
 
roger
 
  2  
Reply Mon 17 Sep, 2012 12:26 am
@engineer,
It's in the bag, babe. You can go ahead and stay home that Wednesday.

Mr. Green
0 Replies
 
revelette
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Sep, 2012 03:03 pm
Obama's 'Apology Tour'

Quote:
The Facts

Most of the criticism stems from a series of speeches that Obama made shortly after taking office, when he was trying to introduce himself to the world and also signify a break with the Bush administration with new policies, such as pledging to close the detainee facility at Guantanamo Bay.

This is typical of many new presidents. George W. Bush, for instance, quickly broke with Clinton administration policy on dealings with North Korea, the Kyoto climate change treaty and the international criminal court, to name a few.

Rove built his case around four quotes made by Obama:

Mr. Obama told the French (the French!) that America "has shown arrogance and been dismissive, even derisive" toward Europe. In Prague, he said America has "a moral responsibility to act" on arms control because only the U.S. had "used a nuclear weapon." In London, he said that decisions about the world financial system were no longer made by "just Roosevelt and Churchill sitting in a room with a brandy" -- as if that were a bad thing. And in Latin America, he said the U.S. had not "pursued and sustained engagement with our neighbors" because we "failed to see that our own progress is tied directly to progress throughout the Americas."

In none of these cases does Obama actually use a word at all similar to "apologize." The Latin American comment might have resonance with Rove's old boss, since that was Bush's charge against the Clinton administration in the 2000 campaign. The Prague and London quotes are not apologies at all. The Paris quote, which is often cited as an apology, is taken out of context.

In Paris, Obama was trying to rebuild relations with Europe, where opposition to the Iraq war had run high. The quote in Paris often cited by conservatives is this: "In America, there's a failure to appreciate Europe's leading role in the world. Instead of celebrating your dynamic union and seeking to partner with you to meet common challenges, there have been times where America has shown arrogance and been dismissive, even derisive."

That doesn't sound like much of an apology, more of a statement of fact that few international-relations experts would quarrel with. But Obama was making the case that both sides had misunderstood each other, and so he also said: "But in Europe, there is an anti-Americanism that is at once casual, but can also be insidious. Instead of recognizing the good that America so often does in the world, there have been times where Europeans choose to blame America for much of what's bad."

The two sentences are a matched pair; there is no apology.

The Heritage Foundation list is also a stretch. Again, nothing akin to the word "apology" is ever used by Obama. In most of these cases, Obama is trying to make a clear distinction with his predecessor, much as Ronald Reagan did with Jimmy Carter, or George W. Bush with Clinton. Guantanamo or the war on terrorism figures in four of the so-called apologies -- and it is noteworthy during the 2000 campaign that Obama's GOP opponent, Sen. John McCain, also had said he would close the facility. Obama's comments express a disagreement over policy, not a distaste for the nation.

Another Heritage example is a speech Obama gave in April 2009 to the Turkish parliament, in which he was trying to urge that country to come to terms with its tragic history with the Armenians: "The United States is still working through some of our own darker periods in our history. Facing the Washington Monument that I spoke of is a memorial of Abraham Lincoln, the man who freed those who were enslaved even after Washington led our Revolution."

But compare what Obama said to what George W. Bush said at Senegal's Goree Island in 2003. Bush called the U.S. constitution flawed and said that America is still troubled by the legacy of slavery. This does not seem like an apology, either -- but it is even more sharply framed than Obama's comments.

We can fairly judge the past by the standards of President John Adams, who called slavery "an evil of callosal magnitude." We can discern eternal standards in the deeds of William Wilberforce and John Quincy Adams, and Harriet Beecher Stowe and Abraham Lincoln. These men and women, black and white, burned with a zeal for freedom, and they left behind a different and better nation. Their moral vision caused Americans to examine our hearts, to correct our Constitution, and to teach our children the dignity and equality of every person of every race. By a plan known only to Providence, the stolen sons and daughters of Africa helped to awaken the conscience of America. The very people traded into slavery helped to set America free. My nation's journey toward justice has not been easy and it is not over. The racial bigotry fed by slavery did not end with slavery or with segregation. And many of the issues that still trouble America have roots in the bitter experience of other times. But however long the journey, our destination is set: liberty and justice for all.

Why would Obama's comment on slavery be considered an apology and not Bush's?

Similarly, Bush's secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice suggested in Cairo in 2005 that U.S. policies were directly responsible for the terrorism that had struck the United States: "Our policies to try and promote what we thought was stability in the Middle East had actually allowed, underneath, a very malignant, meaning cancerous, form of extremism to grow up underneath because people didn't have outlets for their political views."


The whole article at the source above. The latest down below.

Freedom From Facts
0 Replies
 
 

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