@Walter Hinteler,
Regarding whether today's vote is a slap to Merkel as well as local NRW Christian-Democrats, I have to disagree with Walter though.
I mean, if voters in NRW voted strictly on state-politics grounds and didn't let federal politics influence their vote in any way, as Walter says, they are more disciplined and more politically conscious than voters pretty much anywhere else in the world ... I think he might overestimate his fellow voters here. Generally you see a lot of instinctive backlash against (or, hypothetically, support for) the national government in local elections, alongside a response to local political developments. See the local British elections the other week - a couple of local LibDem parties held on because they'd performed very well in local government (eg Portsmouth), but most of them were swept out regardless of their local qualities.
Not digging into the archives right now, but from what I remember about past state-level elections in Germany, if the SPD, the CDU or the Left was doing badly nationally, they usually lost votes locally too, regardless of what might have been perfectly able performances by the party's local politicos.
Of course today's ringing victory for the SPD was primarily an endorsement of the party's very popular leader in the state [edit: and of the relatively popular government she led], and the CDU's poor showing a reflection of its state leader's relative impopularity. But the national mood always weighs in too. And that must be especially so if the CDU's Roettgen, as Walter pointed out himself, focused his campaign on federal politics.
A backlash against both the local and the national conservatives - suits me fine. :-) And it looks like the result will allow a new centre-left government to be built on a clear, stable majority, which can't be said for the outcome of the elections in Schleswig-Holstein last week.
Just a pity that even the SPD seems to be too wedded to the idea of balanced budgets, insufficiently aware of the need for Keynesian policies to stop Europe's economy from further circling the drain. But then again, it makes sense that the Germans will be the last to see the urgency for such a clear policy change: after all, relatively speaking,
they're doing fine... Ezra Klein last year
keenly observed the whats and whys of the German position, and Krugman has
piled on since -
more than once.