The second presidential debate is set for today.
Many things have happened in the meanwhile.
The most important was a political ambush prepared against Peña Nieto at Universidad Iberoamericana a posh private university, by followers from Vázquez Mota and (mostly) López Obrador, who made him flee. Later on, the PRI leadership stated that they were not really students. 131 of them showed their credentials in a video on YouTube, and the movement "I am number 132" got started in the social webs, mostly on Twitter. An anti-Peña march with over 20,000 participants ensued.
The post-debate was lost by Vázquez Mota and won by López Obrador. The "I am number 132" movement hit Peña Nieto.
Simultaneously, former president Vicente Fox (PAN) declared his support for Peña Nieto. So did former PAN party leader Manuel Espino.
So the polls before the debate are (average of 7 public polls):
Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI + "Greens"): 43%
Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD + "Progressives"): 29%
Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN): 25%
Gabriel Quadri (New Alliance): 3%
As for Mexico City, there was a debate a couple of weeks ago, clearly won by the Progressives nominee. So the race is practically over.
Miguel Ángel Mancera (PRD + "Progressives"): 67%
Beatriz Paredes (PRI + "Greens"): 18%
Isabel Miranda de Wallace (PAN): 12%
Rosario Guerra (New Alliance): 2%
On an aside, my wife and daughter have been selected as electoral precinct authorities. Daughter is angry, because she's a substitute and wanted to be Precinct President