Mexican Elections - July 2012

Looking up the Bajio region - -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baj%C3%ADo

"In general parlance, it is usually associated with the States of Guanajuato and Querétaro, although it only forms a part of them. It is characterized by its highly mechanized agriculture, with mean precipitation in the order of 700 millimetres (28 in) per annum (one of the highest in the country). During the Viceroyalty of New Spain, the area was known as the breadbasket of the territory.
The Bajío is known for being one of the most conservative bastions of Mexican Catholicism.
The Bajío is where in April 1915, during the Mexican Revolution, General Álvaro Obregón provoked decisive battles against Pancho Villa. Villa's troops lost in June outside Celaya."

I used to hope to take a train and make stops through that area.

My guess is that Mitofsky includes the states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán and Aguascalientes as part of the Bajío, too. I would.
In strict geographical terms, parts of of Jalisco, Michoacán and Aguascalientes are part of the medium-high plains (Bajío); in historical terms, all those states were the scenary of the Cristero war (Catholics vs. government) in the 1920s

I've just read that your volcano is acting up again in Mexico city. Sadly, that's the gist of the article. I tried to find out more, but I've been stymied. How are things?

Totally easy, Ceili.
The name of the volcano, Popocatepetl, means "Smoky Mountain" in Náhuatl (Aztec). It's being doing that for centuries.

A good pretext to get back on the thread.

PAN has been trying hard to put down PRI's Peña Nieto. They made a "table of truth" about his undelivered promises as governor, but it backfired. First, because they argued that he didn't deliver 100 of his 608 "commitments". A politician with an 84% rate of success is not easy to find. Then, there was a bizantine argument over where to debate about the undelivered promises: a finished or an unfinished bridge. Finally, PAN supporters did not let PRI candidates speak.
Peña Nieto is dodging debates, with the argument that he doesn't want more "division among Mexicans". And this seems to be his real campaign leit-motiv, noting that people are weary of political bickering.
AMLO has started to show his old self, accusing the electoral authority of favoring Peña Nieto by not forcing him to do more than 2 debates.
The first debate is set to be held on May 6th.

Latest polls (average of 7 public polls:

Peña Nieto (PRI + "Greens" ) 49%
Vézquez Mota (PAN) 27$
López Obrador (PRD + "Progressives") 23%
Quadri (New Alliance) 1%

So how long does all this go on before the election happens?

Elections will be held on July 1st.
90 days official campaign.
Lot longer than in most countries.

The new Congress will seat on September 1st.
And the new President won't swear office until December 1st.
Go figure.

That IS long.

And why is it so long - or happenstance?

Actually it is now being limited!

In the old times, the President hand-picked his successor (the PRI candidate), and he had to go all around the country to be legitimated by huge meetings. The long campaign was also a time for negotiations to accomodate everyone in the "revolutionary family" and to pass the torch from one group to another with no fractures.
So usually the "unveiling" of the candidate was on Sept-Oct-Nov of the year before the elections. Campaigns lasted up to 7 months. Opposition parties somehow followed times set by PRI's internal priorities.
After PRI lost power, rules were made to make campaigns last only 90 days... with pre-campaigning for internal party elections.

As for the long wait between election and oath, it is also heritage from the old times, but hasn't changed.

I meant post election. Big irony for me to complain about earlier.

Julia Orayen, former Playboy Playmate, steals the show at Mexican debate:

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/upshot/julia-orayen-former-playboy-playmate-steals-show-mexican-223108792.html

Gabriel Quadri (the bespectacled candidate) couldn't help but noticing the curves.

My comments on the debate, later.

Sooner!

Your wish is an order, deb.

The runners-up (Vázquez Mota and López Obrador) attacked, the leader (Peña Nieto) was on the defense, and counter-attack. The outsider (Quadri) was the only one who insisted on proposals, but the others did not care about him.

All but Quadri blundered while showing images. Peña Nieto showed a paper (ours)

but extended his hand so much, it soon got away from the camera.
Vázquez Mota showed an article by The Economist about Peña Nieto's miracle (stating it was a lie), but put it right where the insert of the translator for the deaf was.
And López Obrador, showed a picture of Peña Nieto with ex-president Salinas, only backwards:
.

Peña Nieto dodged the attacks quite well. The only good punches against him were by López Obrador (about the money Peña spent on his image while governor of the state of Mexico).
According to most polls, Peña won by a scratch, followed by Quadri. But not much change in preferences is expected.

Thank you!

Sounds just like politics everywhere

The tech stuff ups sound very funny.....except to the poor candidates.

It doesn't have to be technical failures, though. In the Second World War, Winston Churchill would pump his hand with the first two fingers in a "V" for victory. However, as a cigar smoker, he habitually did it with the palm facing himself, until embarrassed handlers told him it was an obscene gestures. In the 1992 election in the United States, the elder George Bush went into a grocery store, and was fascinated by the price scanner. He was fascinated enough to keep commenting on it. Of course, as a child of privilege and a wealthy man all his life, he never went to stores to buy things. His handlers must have been in deep despair, and the Clinton camp gleeful. He was being portrayed as being out of touch with the lives of ordinary people, and fighting the slogan "It's the economy, stupid." That incident was a major factor in his defeat. The younger Bush was widely shown in a photograph of him with school children, and the book he's holding is upside down.

I suspect these gentlemen in Mexico simply succumbed to a common failure of politicians everywhere and in all eras.

Indeed...I spoke of the tech knowledge between the eastern and western ears of the candidates. Just like Churchill! Only different.

East ear is east ear and west ear is west ear and never the twain shall meet.

Post debate poll:

Peña Nieto (PRI + "Greens" ) 46%
López Obrador (PRD + "Progressives") 25%
Vézquez Mota (PAN) 24%
Quadri (New Alliance) 5%

The news are Quadri's growth, with votes taken from Peña Nieto and Vázquez Mota, and leftist López Obrador surpassing conservative Vázquez Mota.

Poll for Mexico City major:

Mancera (PRD + "Progressives") 60%
Paredes (PRI + "Greens") 32%
Miranda de Wallace (PAN) 14%
Guerra (New Alliance) 4%

The second presidential debate is set for today.
Many things have happened in the meanwhile.

The most important was a political ambush prepared against Peña Nieto at Universidad Iberoamericana a posh private university, by followers from Vázquez Mota and (mostly) López Obrador, who made him flee. Later on, the PRI leadership stated that they were not really students. 131 of them showed their credentials in a video on YouTube, and the movement "I am number 132" got started in the social webs, mostly on Twitter. An anti-Peña march with over 20,000 participants ensued.
The post-debate was lost by Vázquez Mota and won by López Obrador. The "I am number 132" movement hit Peña Nieto.
Simultaneously, former president Vicente Fox (PAN) declared his support for Peña Nieto. So did former PAN party leader Manuel Espino.

So the polls before the debate are (average of 7 public polls):

Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI + "Greens"): 43%
Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD + "Progressives"): 29%
Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN): 25%
Gabriel Quadri (New Alliance): 3%

As for Mexico City, there was a debate a couple of weeks ago, clearly won by the Progressives nominee. So the race is practically over.

Latest Poll:
Miguel Ángel Mancera (PRD + "Progressives"): 67%
Beatriz Paredes (PRI + "Greens"): 18%
Isabel Miranda de Wallace (PAN): 12%
Rosario Guerra (New Alliance): 2%

On an aside, my wife and daughter have been selected as electoral precinct authorities. Daughter is angry, because she's a substitute and wanted to be Precinct President .

Apple......tree......

Sounds like politics is played rough in Mexico!

Pan doesn't look so good? What are the progressives like?