Obama 2012?

Glad you're back to normal-ish. I should have checked on you.

No, the problem was how big the bump went at that point. This is confirmed by the fact that the bump then deflated later.

It was too much too early. Obama's chances were artificially inflated by a combination of factors -- his chances were good, but not that good.

So when his chances then took a nose-dive, I saw it more as a correction than as an indication that it was suddenly more likely that he would lose than that he would win.

I was going directly contrary to most pundits I was reading at the time in that prediction, btw. They were mostly gloomy and Andrew Sullivan was positively freaking out.

Ah. Good for you, I misunderstood you then. (Never got the Andrew Sullivan thing by the way. He used to be a conservative hack, now he's a liberal hack. Either way, why pay attention to him?)

Yeah, we've gone over this a few times now haven't we? I don't always agree with Andrew (see above for example), but I do sometimes, and more importantly I find his blog to be a good clearinghouse of genuinely good info.

Sully's not a hack.

Cycloptichorn

....plus silliness like this.

http://isnatesilverawitch.com

We just went over him once, as I remember it. The last time we talked about Sullivan, I had been ignoring him since his conservative-hack days. Cyclo and you said he was no longer a conservative hack and recommended that I try reading him again. So I did, and didn't find him worth it. (It's about the hack part, not the liberal part. I would be very interested in reading conservative non-hacks, but I haven't been able to find any lately.)

And I agree, "hack" isn't the right word.

He's highly emotional and not very filtered, so if you get only bits and pieces of him I can see why you'd think that. But he's smart, and he's willing to change his mind based on facts, and actively seeks out those facts.

so mitts party had he won would have been more low key

guess we'll never know

OK. Maybe its not him, it's me. (Isn't it always? ) I am, after all, a compulsive nerd, with little patience for emotions in political analysis.

No, I get that. I write him exasperated "chill out" emails on a regular basis. (He doesn't usually publish them, but he publishes enough of my other emails that I keep writing them...)

Really?!?!?! Give me a heads up when that happens next. I only have had him print one of mine, once, and it was probably my best snark effort ever.

Cycloptichorn

OK!

Pretty much whenever there's a deaf thing, that's me. Did you see the stuff about the ASL "DO NOT MASTURBATE OR YOU'LL MAKE GOD SAD" (or whatever it was called) video?

Not just deaf stuff but this and that, usually not where I'm criticizing him.

Let me know too if you get published.

But use it too much and you end up responding to your own posts.

In updated national exit poll, Obama won Hispanics 71-27 over Romney. Wowsah! One of the CNN moderators (a female, latino Republican) said last night that "Mitt self-deported himself from the WH during the primaries." I guess so!

You didn't hafta wait that long, MM, you voted for a no name, dincha?

You truly confuse me Miller. You admit to liking Scott Brown (nothing too wrong with that as he's a social moderate and charismatic to boot) AND Elizabeth Warren. You admit that you're really glad that Warren won the senate race and that you want to have Brown take John Kerry's seat.

Yet you truly can't stand Obama. Elizabeth Warren will the most liberal senator in our lifetime this side of Bernie Sanders, the self proclaimed SOCIALIST (and yes one of my favorite political heroes). Why the love for clearly a very liberal and enlightened Warren? You do realize she is 1000% for Obamacare, right?

The women ratio has me stumped.

You mean your wife doesn't vote exactly how you tell her to?