No, the problem was how big the bump went at that point
. This is confirmed by the fact that the bump then deflated later.
It was too much too early. Obama's chances were artificially inflated by a combination of factors -- his chances were good, but not that good.
So when his chances then took a nose-dive, I saw it more as a correction than as an indication that it was suddenly more likely that he would lose than that he would win.
I was going directly contrary to most pundits I was reading at the time in that prediction, btw. They were mostly gloomy and Andrew Sullivan was positively freaking out.