Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 7 Nov, 2012 11:40 am
@Frank Apisa,
Glad you're back to normal-ish. I should have checked on you.
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 7 Nov, 2012 11:42 am
@Thomas,
No, the problem was how big the bump went at that point. This is confirmed by the fact that the bump then deflated later.

It was too much too early. Obama's chances were artificially inflated by a combination of factors -- his chances were good, but not that good.

So when his chances then took a nose-dive, I saw it more as a correction than as an indication that it was suddenly more likely that he would lose than that he would win.

I was going directly contrary to most pundits I was reading at the time in that prediction, btw. They were mostly gloomy and Andrew Sullivan was positively freaking out.
Thomas
 
  2  
Reply Wed 7 Nov, 2012 11:47 am
@sozobe,
Ah. Good for you, I misunderstood you then. (Never got the Andrew Sullivan thing by the way. He used to be a conservative hack, now he's a liberal hack. Either way, why pay attention to him?)
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 7 Nov, 2012 11:49 am
@Thomas,
Yeah, we've gone over this a few times now haven't we? I don't always agree with Andrew (see above for example), but I do sometimes, and more importantly I find his blog to be a good clearinghouse of genuinely good info.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 7 Nov, 2012 11:52 am
@Thomas,
Sully's not a hack.

Cycloptichorn
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 7 Nov, 2012 11:53 am
....plus silliness like this. Very Happy

http://isnatesilverawitch.com
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  2  
Reply Wed 7 Nov, 2012 11:56 am
@sozobe,
We just went over him once, as I remember it. The last time we talked about Sullivan, I had been ignoring him since his conservative-hack days. Cyclo and you said he was no longer a conservative hack and recommended that I try reading him again. So I did, and didn't find him worth it. (It's about the hack part, not the liberal part. I would be very interested in reading conservative non-hacks, but I haven't been able to find any lately.)
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 7 Nov, 2012 11:57 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Sully's not a hack.

Cycloptichorn


And I agree, "hack" isn't the right word.

He's highly emotional and not very filtered, so if you get only bits and pieces of him I can see why you'd think that. But he's smart, and he's willing to change his mind based on facts, and actively seeks out those facts.
djjd62
 
  2  
Reply Wed 7 Nov, 2012 11:58 am
@Miller,
so mitts party had he won would have been more low key

guess we'll never know
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 7 Nov, 2012 12:00 pm
@sozobe,
OK. Maybe its not him, it's me. (Isn't it always? Smile ) I am, after all, a compulsive nerd, with little patience for emotions in political analysis.
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 7 Nov, 2012 12:02 pm
@Thomas,
No, I get that. I write him exasperated "chill out" emails on a regular basis. (He doesn't usually publish them, but he publishes enough of my other emails that I keep writing them...)
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 7 Nov, 2012 12:04 pm
@sozobe,
Really?!?!?! Give me a heads up when that happens next. I only have had him print one of mine, once, and it was probably my best snark effort ever.

Cycloptichorn
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 7 Nov, 2012 12:06 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
OK!

Pretty much whenever there's a deaf thing, that's me. Did you see the stuff about the ASL "DO NOT MASTURBATE OR YOU'LL MAKE GOD SAD" (or whatever it was called) video?

Not just deaf stuff but this and that, usually not where I'm criticizing him. Smile

Let me know too if you get published.
0 Replies
 
engineer
 
  5  
Reply Wed 7 Nov, 2012 12:12 pm
@Miller,
But use it too much and you end up responding to your own posts.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  7  
Reply Wed 7 Nov, 2012 12:35 pm
In updated national exit poll, Obama won Hispanics 71-27 over Romney. Wowsah! One of the CNN moderators (a female, latino Republican) said last night that "Mitt self-deported himself from the WH during the primaries." I guess so!
JTT
 
  1  
Reply Wed 7 Nov, 2012 12:40 pm
@mysteryman,
Quote:
I went to bed when the news called Wisconsin for Obama,


You didn't hafta wait that long, MM, you voted for a no name, dincha?
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  5  
Reply Wed 7 Nov, 2012 12:42 pm
@JPB,
http://i47.tinypic.com/343godl.jpg
tsarstepan
 
  2  
Reply Wed 7 Nov, 2012 12:45 pm
@Miller,
Miller wrote:


I'll bet the homeless and cold folks on Staten Island and NJ loved to see the above photo. And the really sad thing is , of course, the homeless and cold probably voted for Obama.

You truly confuse me Miller. You admit to liking Scott Brown (nothing too wrong with that as he's a social moderate and charismatic to boot) AND Elizabeth Warren. You admit that you're really glad that Warren won the senate race and that you want to have Brown take John Kerry's seat.

Yet you truly can't stand Obama. Elizabeth Warren will the most liberal senator in our lifetime this side of Bernie Sanders, the self proclaimed SOCIALIST (and yes one of my favorite political heroes). Why the love for clearly a very liberal and enlightened Warren? You do realize she is 1000% for Obamacare, right?
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 7 Nov, 2012 12:50 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
The women ratio has me stumped. Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes
parados
 
  2  
Reply Wed 7 Nov, 2012 01:10 pm
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:

The women ratio has me stumped. Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes

You mean your wife doesn't vote exactly how you tell her to?
0 Replies
 
 

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