nimh wrote:I dont think Kerry would stand a snowball's chance in hell against Bush, btw, which is why I hope he gets off of our radar again asap. A dissapointing margin of victory in NH and then defeat in some of the states in the South or out West in the next round should do the trick.
I dont think Kerry is electable because:
1) His campaign has stumbled all through 2003 mainly because there was (and still is) no credible overarching rationale or keynote theme to it. Perhaps it was because he was so plagued by his various flip-flops (on Iraq, No Child Left Behind, Patriot Act) that he didnt get a proper chance to sound much of a positive theme. But the only rationale he's gotten across (to me, in any case) thus far, is that he thinks he'd be a swell President, himself - and he was a hero in Vietnam.
The main rationale he's gotten across to me is that whatever Bush can throw at him, he has an answer for. This is firmly in AABB, but he does not bother me enough to violate the "Almost" part of it. In other words, he is far from my ideal candidate, but my ideal candidate would exactly align with me politically AND would be able to beat Bush. The latter part takes precedence, when speaking of the big four (as I consider all of them good enough to pass the "Almost" part.)
nimh wrote:There doesnt seem to be anything bigger than himself driving him, as there was with Gephardt (health insurance, workers rights) or Dean (grassroots activism, Iraq).
Electability will drive him, big time, if it continues. How much of the Dean people thing is an upswell of activism, just plain activism, just plain, "This is not right, this needs to be stopped"? If people smell blood, sense that he can really fell Bush, that will be the drive. That's an IF, though, easily burst by a poor showing in NH.
nimh wrote:]Now Dean and Gephardt may have annihilated each other with all their drive, but that doesnt mean vacuousness is an alternative. I have the same problem with Clark: he and Kerry seem to be mainly in the race out of vanity. But when it comes to electability at least Clark was a general, Kerry an officer. Clark can claim exceptional, and presently relevant, expertise as well as heroism from his army time - Kerry only personal experience.
I see the main thing with a military background as not having to do with expertise, per se, as much how this person would look standing next to Bush, what sorts of pointed statements they can make that Bush would have no answer for, how they could deflect with a look saying, "have you forgotten just who I am??" if he makes some sort of attempt at questioning their patriotism or toughness. Bush has been doing his very best to be the wartime president, the cowboy,the tough guy, and I welcome any opportunity to remind people that he is just an idiot in a flight suit while these guys (Kerry, Clark) are the real deal. "The real deal" being people who actually served in the military, put their lives in danger, etc. I think this is one area where Kerry's comparitive regular-guy experience -- officer vs. general -- is to his advantage, in fact. That image of him right there in the middle of the fighting, in the jungle, turning around and back into fire to save one of his men -- that's powerful stuff. That's stuff Bush doesn't have an answer for,
even if it has nothing to do with being a president, per se. It's the stuff that Bush has been trying to manufacture for himself with his flight suit photo-ops, and it would be great to see him called on it.
nimh wrote:2) From what I've read - though admittably I have the disadvantage of not having a TV - he just doesnt seem to be a very sympathetic guy. From what I've understood he comes across as aloof and ... like, he's up high, he's the rich guy. He's not ordinary folk. None of them is, of course, but rule #1 of electability is that you should seem to be. I've also read too many people & posters saying they practically fall asleep when the guy speeches. Now his discreteness might play well in the north, but in the south or west?
I think that he's growing into it. While I also haven't got a TV these days, the photos of him post-Iowa were very sympathetic. Surprised, sort of humble and genuinely happy grins, arms raised, kind of weary, looking craggy and strong, though. In the short term, Dean vs. Kerry, I think the patrician thing is to his advantage. He's more
presidential. I don't think the Dems should try to out-Bush Bush, find someone even more back-slappy and nick-namey, but should try to settle the unease people feel with having such a gauche cowboy in such a powerful office. I think his whole "aloofness" can be turned to "This guy is going to take the office seriously and restore some dignity."
I dunno about his speeches. Could he really be worse than Bush, though? Gawd he's horrible.
nimh wrote:3) He's been a senator for a liberal state for what, twenty years? There is a reason why not many experienced congressmen become presidents. There is simply too much 'dirt' to be dug up. (Dean has already started by deftly pointing out that Kerry opposed the Gulf War, but supported the Iraq war, going something like, "way I see it, that makes him wrong twice".) The Bushies will do everything to make this a populist campaign about common folk, capitalising on the smoldering culture wars, and a long stint as Mass senator makes for especially plentiful "dirt" in that context.
Yeah. I dunno. I think that the Bushies will do everything to damage whomever is the Dem nominee, and there will be fodder for each of the big four. Having 20 years' experience is one of the least harmful types of fodder I can think of, generally speaking. Another nice contrast to the baseball team owner. I know what you mean, though.
nimh wrote:but "George W. Bush is not Bill Weld, 2004 is not 1996, and the United States most assuredly is not Massachusetts". In which context it is useful to remember that Kerry "managed to escape with a seven-point victory in a state where Bill Clinton thrashed Dole by 34 points."
I really don't think this guy is up to Bush.
1996 WAS a very different year. Bill Clinton was in office, everyone thought he would be re-elected, things were good. People are now terrified of Bush and want to do whatever is necessary to get him out. Not all of them, of course. But I think (so far, I still may shift especially if he has a poor showing in NH) that if Kerry is the nominee, he has the best chance of showing what a buffoon Bush is and swaying those who have not already decided to vote (A)ABB. And of course he'll get the (A)ABB votes.